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As remarkable as it sounds, we've reached the midway point of the 2026 regular season now that Week 9 is on our doorstep. The first half of the year has heard underdogs bark loudly, and there's no reason to think that'll subside as we barrel down this second leg of the season.
That's especially true this week as there are eight home underdogs on the Week 9 slate. Normally, this is a recipe for the league to flip on its head, particularly after a Week 8 schedule that was mostly chalk. Last week, we correctly identified the Raiders as a live road underdog as they came out with the outright win over the Jets, but favorites largely owned the rest of the schedule.
Water may find its level in Week 9, however, which is why we have three road favorites firmly on upset alert as we look forward to another week in the NFL.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
Green Bay and New England have sort of mirrored each other to this point in the season. They both started the year 1-2 and have since surged back into playoff contention with 4-1 records over the past five weeks. Jordan Love leads the NFL in passing yards entering Week 8, while Drake Maye leads the league in total yards and touchdowns from Weeks 4-8. So, both of these teams are quite hot heading into this Week 9 matchup in Foxborough.
That said, injuries have plagued the Patriots offense, with wideout A.J. Brown missing Week 8 with a knee injury and tight end Hunter Henry leaving last week's win over Miami with a foot injury. Those are two pivotal outlets for Maye in the passing game that he may not have when he goes up against an emerging Packers defense.
Over the last five games, the Packers have given up 14.6 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL. With a potentially limited cast around Maye, Green Bay's strength could end up winning the day and the game.
Most of the attention for this game will go to the best-on-best matchup between the Bills offense and the Vikings defense. After all, Buffalo is averaging a league-best 33.3 points per game entering Week 9, while Minnesota is holding opponents to a league-low 13.3 points per game. Something will need to give there, and it could be the Vikings' blitz-heavy defense that has the advantage.
Coming into Week 9, Minnesota leads the NFL with a 69.1% blitz rate. Against the blitz this season, Allen ranks 20th among 31 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (88.2) and is tied for the second-most interceptions (3). Of course, Allen's rushing ability can help negate Minnesota's pass rush, but his passing numbers against the blitz are noteworthy.
Meanwhile, this could be a solid spot for Minnesota's offense to find its footing. Kyler Murray hasn't been as dynamic under center as the Vikings hoped when they acquired him this offseason, and the team has largely won in spite of the offense. That said, Buffalo's defense is allowing 25.9 points per game this season, which is tied for 24th in the NFL entering Week 9. Playing in one of the better home-field environments also helps Minnesota's chances.
The Chargers have to win a game at some point, right? Right?! So far, nothing has worked for Los Angeles, as it is 0-7 this season and ranks last in the NFL in points per game (14.1) while leading the league in turnovers (17). The Chargers also haven't scored a touchdown since the third quarter of Week 5. It's been an unmitigated disaster.
While it's hard to imagine the tide turning, there's at least a glimmer of hope this week against a surprisingly shaky Texans defense. Maybe the bye week was enough for them to take a breather and get right, but what we've seen on the field so far hasn't been anything like what they were in 2025. The Texans have allowed 30-plus points three times this season after doing so once last year. They've also had three 300-yard passing games allowed, after none in 2025.
| Texans defensive ranks | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
PPG |
2nd |
18th |
YPG |
1st |
19 |
INT |
T-3rd |
T-24th |
If they continue to look sluggish defensively, maybe the Texans open the door for the Chargers to catch lightning in a bottle at home.
Under Dave Canales (since 2024), the Panthers are a respectable 8-9 as a home underdog (11-6 ATS). If you cut it to the start of last season, Carolina is 6-4 as a home underdog, so this is not only a spot it is familiar with, but it's also come out on top with straight-up wins more often than one would think.
Yes, this matchup against Denver comes at a bad time for Bryce Young and the offensive line. Carolina's offensive line is banged up, which has led to Bryce Young enduring 11 sacks over the past two games. With the Broncos tied for the fourth-most sacks (23) in the NFL through Week 8, this, on paper, has the possibility of getting ugly.
That said, I wonder if the Panthers continue to find success as an overlooked team at home, especially having the rest advantage after playing last Thursday. Meanwhile, don't sleep on Denver having a bit of a letdown in Week 9 after pulling off a marquee win over the Chiefs last Sunday.
The NFL heads back out into international waters as the Bengals and Falcons square off in Madrid.
After watching both of these offenses last week, it's hard to see the Falcons keeping pace with the Bengals. That said, lost in Joe Burrow's six-touchdown performance was that Tennessee dropped 36 points against Cincinnati's defense. Cam Ward, who has had an up-and-down start to his career, threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 41 yards against a Bengals defense that is starting to get dinged up. The Bengals lost Cashius Howell (fractured wrist), corner DJ Turner (heel), and defensive end Cedric Johnson (ankle), all of whom suffered injuries against the Titans. Turner and Johnson could play this week, but the unit isn't 100%.
As for the Falcons, they are getting a boost defensively as top edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is back after serving his eight-game suspension to begin the year.
Cincinnati is also giving up 4.8 yards per rush this season, which is tied for the fourth-highest in the NFL. That suggests Bijan Robinson could dazzle on the international stage, especially after seeing Tony Pollard total 117 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns against the Bengals last week. If it's a ground-controlled game for Atlanta, that could be the avenue to pulling off the win.
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