The Denver Broncos are 7-2. They've won five straight, Bo Nix keeps engineering fourth-quarter comebacks, and they've somehow won an NFL-record 16 consecutive one-score games dating to last season.

Oh, and they've been outgained by 699 yards through nine games. It's the worst yardage differential in NFL history for a team with at least seven wins at this point in the season. The previous low was the 2010 Patriots at minus-469, and Denver blew past that mark with 230 yards to spare.

But here's what's even harder to wrap your head around: Denver was also 7-2 through nine games last season, when it had outgained opponents by 607 yards. That's a 1,306-yard swing in the wrong direction, the largest year-over-year decline among teams that started at least 7-2 in consecutive seasons going back to 2000.

Same record, completely different team. So: Are the Broncos actually good, or are they just remarkably good at winning games they probably shouldn't?

The numbers don't make sense. The wins are very real.

Start with this: Denver has been outgained in seven of nine games, including five victories. To put that in perspective, only two of the 126 teams that started 7-2 or better this century spent less time playing with a lead.

Against the Rams in Week 3, Denver was outgained by 225 yards, trailed for more than 39 minutes and led for exactly 118 seconds. They won anyway, 30-26.

They've also beaten the Jaguars and Chiefs despite leading for fewer than 10 minutes in each of those games. And six of their seven victories have come by eight points or fewer.

Here's how unusual that is.

The worst yardage differentials by teams starting 7-2 or better

The Broncos aren't just an outlier; they're making the other outliers look ordinary. They've scored just 12 more points than they've allowed all season, the third-smallest point differential among 126 teams that started 7-2 or better since 2000. Based on that plus-12 margin, Denver should be closer to 5-4 than 7-2. 

No one told them that. And that difference between actual and expected wins? It's one of the 12 largest through nine games in the past 26 years.

So how do the Broncos keep pulling this off?

Nix has already engineered five fourth-quarter comebacks, tied for the most through nine games since 1950, according to CBS Sports Research. He's not consistently playing at the level of, say, draft classmate Caleb Williams, but when Denver needs a score, he's delivered.

The defense has done its part, coming up with sacks and turnovers when Denver needs them most. The Broncos have forced 12 turnovers while committing just seven, but here's the twist: Despite that advantage, they've actually been outscored 41-39 on points off turnovers. So it's not as simple as the defense creating easy points for the offense.

Special teams have helped, as well. The Broncos average 44.2 net yards per punt, although kicking half the time in Denver's thin air certainly helps. What's more impressive, though, is their ability to pin opponents deep: Nine punts have landed inside the 10-yard line, putting Denver in the top 4% of all NFL teams we looked at through their first nine games.

And here's something encouraging for Denver: The offense might finally be finding its rhythm. After struggling through the first six games, Bo Nix and Co. have played their best football over the past three weeks, with the passing game improving in five straight games. The timing couldn't be better, because the defense has taken a step back over the past two weeks.

Maybe Nix and Sean Payton are figuring things out. Or maybe it's a blip that won't last. Either way, the Broncos aren't winning exactly the same way they were a month ago.

History says the Broncos can keep winning. But there's a catch.

Since 2000, 125 teams started 7-2 or better. A grand total of 18 were outgained over that stretch.

Those 18 teams won 56.6% of their remaining regular-season games. The other 107 won 68.6%. That's a meaningful difference, but it's hardly a guarantee that Denver is about to fall apart.

What happened next to teams starting 7-2 or better?

The 2010 Patriots offer some encouragement. They were outgained by 469 yards through nine games, then won their final seven regular-season games to finish 14-2.

The 2012 Ravens are an even better example. They were 7-2 despite a minus-325 yardage differential, finished 10-6 and won the Super Bowl when Joe Flacco got red hot in the playoffs. Of course, the 2022 Vikings went 13-4 despite being outgained for the entire season, then lost their first playoff game.

Put another way: teams can keep winning without dominating. Winning a championship that way is considerably harder, although Baltimore proved it's possible.

And that's the challenge for Denver. The good news is that they have seven wins through nine weeks, are now on their bye, and still have games against the Raiders (twice), Dolphins, Jets and Chargers. 

The Broncos have found ways to win despite getting pushed around for much of the season. But counting on late-game heroics every week isn't a long-term solution, and it's why trading for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor could go from pipe dream to reality.

Maybe Nix's recent improvement is a sign the offense is turning a corner. Add a player like Taylor, and the Broncos would have a more reliable running game, taking pressure off the third-year quarterback and giving Payton more ways to manage games without depending on fourth-quarter comebacks.

History tells us teams can keep winning this way. How long they can keep it up is another question. For nine games, Denver has made winning ugly look easy. January will tell us whether that's a winning formula or a warning sign.