The Oklahoma State Cowboys head into Saturdays’ game with the Kansas State Wildcats seeking a little redemption.

It isn’t just for last week’s 51-49 loss to Iowa State, a game that had the Cowboys (5-3, 3-2 in Big 12) won would have kept them in the Big 12 Championship game race. It’s for a loss two years ago in Manhattan, a 42-20 shellacking that was the first true signal the program was in trouble.

Going into the season, the Cowboys figured they would be dealing with Kansas State (4-4, 1-4) quarterback Avery Johnson, who was the starter in that 2024 matchup. But he’s hurt. On paper, that could be good for Oklahoma State — except the Wildcats have landed on a proper replacement.

Here is the matchup that will decide whether the Cowboys win or lose.

Kansas State QB Blake Barnett vs. Oklahoma State Front Four

Blake Barnett was the man coming out of Erie High School in Eric, Colo. Most recruiting services saw him as the No. 1 player in Colorado, and he threw for 7,518 yards and 88 touchdowns in addition to running for 3,420 yards and another 68 scores during his prep career.

He didn’t play in 2024 and barely played in 2025 as he sat behind starter Avery Johnson. Even when Johnson went down with an injury a few weeks ago, Barnett wasn’t seen as the next option. The Wildcats started Jacob Knuth against Arizona State and then Dillon Duff against Colorado.

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But Duff didn’t last. Barnett replaced him during the game and posted the best numbers of his career — 18-of-28 passing for 224 yards and three touchdowns, along with 40 yards rushing on 16 carries. He showed just how good a fit he can be in head coach Collin Klein’s offense.

He has a track record as a dual-threat quarterback at the high school level that he’s only scratching the surface of at the college level. But he had an edge last week — there was little tape on him. He threw 40 passes in 2025. Even if Colorado wanted to scout him, it didn’t have much to go on.

Barnett has Johnson’s athleticism when it comes to running the football. He broke a run our two, but he averaged less than three yards per carry. Where he excelled was throwing the ball. He completed 60% of his passes. That emulates Johnson’s 63.1% completion rate this season, the best of his career. With Barnett taking over the job, it allows Klein to make few alterations to his offense.

That’s good news for the Cowboys. The overall scheme won’t change that much. What defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity must do is figure out, with limited tape, Barnett’s tendencies. That should help the Cowboys front four, which will likely be undermanned on Saturday.

Defensive end Jaleel Johnson is doubtful for the game. His status could change by 10:30 a.m. on Saturday, but he’s not tracking that way. That means Malik Charles or Keviyan Huddleston will start on the right side, but both will play opposite James Williams on the left side. The interior defensive line is expected to have its usual rotation, though Landon Dean is doubtful.

The Cowboys defense gave up nearly 600 yards of total offense against Iowa State. Running back Aiden Flora shredded them for more than 200 yards while quarterback Jaylen Raynor threw for more than 300 yards. The Wildcats have a capable back that some Cowboys defenders know — Rodney Fields Jr. But how effective Barnett is will help determine how effective Fields will be.

The Cowboys’ front four must affect Barnett in two ways. First, they must set the edge in RPO plays and keep Barnett from getting outside the tackles. That edge is vital because the Cowboys will likely be without linebacker Tate Romney, who is also dealing with an injury. If he doesn’t play, Isaiah Chisom is the likely starter. Between him, linebacker Ethan Wesloski and safety Quinton Hammonds, the Cowboys want Barnett heading their direction.

Second, the pass rush must be better. This means Charles, Huddleston and Williams, along with the rest of the rotational end must press Barnett on passing downs, flush him up the pocket and into the defensive tackles. Containment and pressure are going to be key. Barnett had a comfortable game against Colorado. The Cowboys must make him more uncomfortable and force him into the mistakes he didn’t make against the Buffaloes.

If Oklahoma State wins this matchup, the Cowboys win the game.