The Kansas City Chiefs went receiver shopping at Tuesday’s trade deadline and came home with Josh Downs, and it didn’t take long for some analysts to start writing Rashee Rice’s goodbye.

With both receivers in the final year of their contracts, those analysts believe Kansas City is lining up to keep the new arrival and let Rice walk in free agency.

Could Chiefs Be Succession Planning For Rashee Rice’s Exit?

The Indianapolis Colts announced Tuesday that they sent Downs and a 2027 seventh-round pick to Kansas City for the Chiefs’ 2027 fourth- and fifth-round picks. The deal landed two days after Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy left Sunday’s 35-12 win over the New York Jets with a hamstring injury.

Downs, a 2023 third-round pick out of North Carolina, has a contract that expires after this season, and Rice is in the same boat, in the final year of his four-year, $6.5 million deal.

Doug Orth, a fantasy football analyst, tied the trade to Rice’s future Tuesday night: “I choose to believe the Chiefs have already made up their mind about extending (or not extending, as it were) Rice. My guess is they hope Downs shows enough in the slot over the second half to make him the long-term option there.”

Brandon Kiley, co-host of ‘BK & Ferrario,’ put the same idea more directly. “Josh Downs is more likely to be on the Chiefs in 2027 than Rashee Rice.”

John McGlynn, another fantasy football expert, was ready to see Rice move on once the season ends. “It’s been a slice. Turn in your equipment at the end of the season, please!”

Rashee Rice’s Contract-Year Production Draws a Closer Look

Rice is playing this season without a new deal. NFL insider Adam Schefter reported in late May that the Chiefs had no plans to offer him an extension before the season.

Rice’s season has already been interrupted once. He missed three games with a hamstring injury, and through Week 9, he has 25 catches for 292 yards and two touchdowns in the six games he has featured in.

NFL writer Scott Kacsmar zeroed in on that output, writing, “I do think it’s being overlooked that Rice is averaging just 48.7 YPG as a supposed WR1 in a contract year. If this is his idea of proving he’s worth keeping, he ain’t worth keeping.”

Other measures are kinder to Rice. According to Next Gen Stats, he averages 4.1 yards of separation at the catch point through Week 9, tied for third-widest among 108 qualified pass catchers.

Pro Football Network’s NFL WR Impact Grade has him at 74.6 over the same stretch, 34th of 79 graded wide receivers. He also has a track record to point to, having caught 79 passes for 938 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games as a rookie in 2023.

Josh Downs Is Playing for His Next Contract in Kansas City

Downs had requested a trade, ESPN reported, and he signed off from Indianapolis by writing, “I am beyond grateful and blessed for my time in Indy. Nothing but love for the Shoe.”

He joins a receiver room that also lost Tyquan Thornton to an ankle injury earlier this season that required surgery. Downs has 33 catches for 354 yards and a touchdown on 57 targets through Week 9, and he led the Colts in receiving yards before the trade.

RotoWorld’s Kyle Dvorchak wasn’t sold on the cost but still saw the same ending for Rice. “Probably an egregious price to pay for half a season of Downs before he becomes a free agent. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs let Rashee Rice walk in free agency and keep Downs next offseason.”

Downs’ first chance to suit up for Kansas City comes Sunday, when the Chiefs (6-2), second in the AFC West, visit the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That game opens a nine-game regular-season stretch for both receivers to make their cases before the Chiefs have to show their hand.