Major League Baseball and its players’ union are staring down a lockout once the current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET.

However, the sport’s biggest free agent holds enough power to make himself the story until then.

Experts expect starting pitcher Tarik Skubal, the reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner, to earn the largest free-agency dollar amount for a pitcher in MLB history.

Baseball’s No. 1 free agent will have to decide between many of the most championship-ready teams for 2027 -- if we have a season.

The left-hander, who’s turning 30 on Nov. 20, spun a 2.72 ERA, 10.55 K/9, and 1.53 BB/9 in 2026 with a 12-7 record across 26 starts between the Tigers and Dodgers. The lefty hasn’t finished with an ERA above 2.80 in four straight seasons.

During the long wait until a labor resolution, I’m tracking the waves of reports about teams expressing interest in Skubal. Keep tabs here to get the latest Tarik Skubal news and insider chatter as he looks to land his big contract.

Tarik Skubal free agency news: latest rumors and rumblings

ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan believes Skubal will sign before the Dec. 1 CBA expiration. Here’s a roundup of the likeliest teams to dive into the competition.

▶ Los Angeles Dodgers

A reunion with the team that acquired him midseason feels most obvious, especially given the Dodgers’ endless stash of money that many will claim helped start the likely lockout.

Skubal improved on his Tigers performance with a 2.61 ERA in his 10 Dodgers starts, nearly matching his K/9 (10.16) and BB/9 (1.89). Leaving the AL Central might mean tougher season-long competition, but the lefty is nearly matchup-proof.

Passan considers the Dodgers to be front-runners in the Skubal sweepstakes, with a reunion highly possible. One other team will be Los Angeles’ toughest competition.

▶ New York Mets

Another NL money printer should make its interest known, ahead of a season in which owner Steve Cohen must resurrect the team after a huge letdown in 2026.

While the Mets have some strong pieces near the top of their rotation in Nolan McLean and Christian Scott, putting Skubal in Sharpie at the top of the rotation would ease the organization’s concerns.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network believes the Mets are the frontrunners given their motivation and assets:

▶ New York Yankees

New York’s starting pitching was regarded as its biggest strength in a lost season that involved a four-month Aaron Judge injury and an embarrassing sweep exit in the American League Division Series.

Whispers say they could try to sign Skubal and trade from their rotation depth.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel believes the Yankees could aggressively pursue Skubal, then trade from their already deep rotation to meet other needs (third base, catcher among them). WFAN Radio’s Tommy Lugauer, however, “doesn’t see the Yankees as a realistic possibility” because they’ll likely target lineup upgrades instead:

▶ Chicago Cubs

Rumors remain mixed on whether the Cubs will become a serious player for Skubal.

Budget and salary cap concerns loom largest, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma believes they won’t stay through to the end of a bidding war:

“The 29-year-old Skubal would be a good fit for any team; that much is clear. But for the Cubs, that’s where the match ends, team sources indicated. Chicago was aggressive in adding third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175-million deal last winter, but has shied away from the very top of the market in recent offseasons. Toppling a market that’s expected to include the biggest spenders in the game for Skubal won’t be in the cards.”

The Cubs have shown no interest in spending like the Dodgers and Mets. This winter, one in which labor negotiations muddy the waters for teams and their finances, won’t be an exception.

Chicago could build depth instead of getting a major No. 1 arm.

▶ Toronto Blue Jays

After missing the postseason in 2026, the Jays likely will have plenty of money to throw around on this market, particularly for starting pitching. They could use a top-end partner for AL Cy Young contender Dylan Cease, and their rotation has questionable depth beyond young fireballer Trey Yesavage.

However, early reads say that acquiring lineup help -- chiefly outfielder Seiya Suzuki -- looks more like a priority. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson details that Toronto may pivot to Freddy Peralta or more midrange arms as a supplemental move while prioritizing bat upgrades.

▶ San Diego Padres

The Dodgers’ top NL West rivals may act more aggressively toward the top free agents under new ownership. They might lose Michael King on the open market, so they could in turn spend the money to get Skubal, though they’d likely consider signing both anyway.

Of course, the new head honchos, Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones, picked an incredibly tumultuous first offseason to join the General Manager Meetings and Winter Meetings to make a splash.

The holes at the back end of the Pads’ rotation justify making at least one big move, though.