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Liverpool's Champions League chances assessed by supercomputer after perfect start

Liverpool is pushing ahead in the Champions League so far this season, with three wins from three giving Andoni Iraola's side a good chance of at least qualifying for the knockout stages

Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool celebrates his goal to make the score 3-2 during the UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 match between Liverpool and Villarreal
Liverpool has a perfect record in the Champions League so far this season

Liverpool has been given just a 7.15 percent chance of winning the Champions League this season, after having a perfect start to the competition under Andoni Iraola.

The Reds have overcome the challenges of Atletico Madrid, LASK, and Villarreal in the opening few fixtures in Europe, as the head coach adjusts to the impact of such a busy fixture schedule compared to his previous jobs. There has been some wise rotation so far, without a compromise in results, with nine points from a possible nine keeping the Merseyside outfit in the top eight of the Champions League.

Should the remaining five matches go the same way, then Liverpool will guarantee a place in that group, which would give the side a place in the round of 16, avoiding the possibility of playing two extra matches by finishing in the group of teams below that.

Those fixtures are against Fenerbahce, Club Brugge, FC Porto, Inter Milan, and RC Lens, a run that the Reds will fancy their chances in, which could seal an important route through qualification.

That is only the first part of the story, however, as Iraola would need to navigate through several knockout rounds to make history and win a seventh Champions League title. While that currently seems unlikely, Liverpool has quite a strange connection to European nights that could take the players all the way.

With some early data now in, Opta Analyst's supercomputer has been crunching the numbers once again, to give some potential outcomes to the tournament.

Liverpool is ranked as sixth favorite in the data, given a 7.15 percent chance of winning the entire tournament. That is only behind Arsenal (20.26%), Bayern Munich (15.24%), Manchester City (13.75%), PSG (11.54%), and Barcelona ((10.4%).

The Champions League trophy
The Champions League trophy

Those numbers are likely to fluctuate as each team plays more games through the competition, while the eventual draw for the knockouts could sway the percentages heavily, depending on the route each team could have to the final.

In terms of the other metrics, Liverpool has been given an 82.87 percent chance of finishing in the top eight, avoiding the playoff rounds, with a 17.07 percent chance of finishing between ninth and 24th to secure a place in the knockout rounds. That leaves just a 0.06 percent chance of falling out of the qualification places altogether, all but guaranteeing a place in the following rounds.

Beyond that point, a place in the round of 16 is rated at just above 95 percent, while there is a 59 percent chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 30 percent chance of reaching the semi-finals, and a 14 percent chance of reaching the final.

It certainly suggests that Liverpool is still among the strongest teams in the competition, despite some performances this season, with a perfect record helping to back that up.

While those chances are there, what truly matters is the results when they count. Liverpool still needs to pick up victories in the remaining league stage matches, but it's the knockouts where it really counts.

It may be far too early to even contemplate winning the trophy, but if the Reds keep that perfect record going, and big players step up when called upon, who knows what could unfold.

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