Achraf Hakimi is the leading contender to retain the African Ballon d’Or, with a 35% chance of winning the award according to an analysis of five criteria ahead of the CAF Awards 2026.

The ceremony will take place in Lagos, Nigeria, on Wednesday, 2 December. Hakimi, who won the prize in 2025, faces nine other nominees from six national teams.

Hakimi leads the way

The Paris Saint-Germain defender added the Champions League to his honours last season after PSG beat Arsenal on penalties on 30 May. Hakimi converted his spot-kick after choosing to play despite a physical problem. PSG also won the 2025/26 Ligue 1 title.

The Morocco captain started all six of his country’s matches at the World Cup, scoring once and providing two assists before Morocco lost 2-0 to France in the quarter-finals. Across 38 appearances in all competitions, including the World Cup, Hakimi recorded four goals and 11 assists. He received five yellow cards and one red card during the campaign.

His Morocco team-mate Brahim Diaz is rated second, with a 20% chance of success. His strongest claim is the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, where he scored five goals and won the Golden Boot. Senegal beat Morocco 1-0 after extra time in the final, but CAF declared Morocco winners on 17 March after Senegal’s players left the pitch. The title therefore appears in Diaz’s honours list.

Diaz’s World Cup was less productive: he scored no goals and managed six shots without hitting the target. At Real Madrid, he made 42 appearances, scoring twice and supplying nine assists. He collected three yellow cards.

Ismael Saibari is third at 14%. At PSV Eindhoven, before moving to Bayern Munich in the summer, he scored 15 goals and created eight more in 27 Eredivisie matches. That amounted to a goal contribution every 93 minutes, while he also won the league, the Dutch Super Cup and the award for the competition’s best player.

Saibari scored three times in seven Champions League games and added three goals in five World Cup appearances. The 25-year-old attacking midfielder was also part of Morocco’s 2025 Africa Cup of Nations-winning squad, playing in every match and scoring against Cameroon.

Senegal and Ghana contenders

Ismaila Sarr is fourth on 9%. Crystal Palace won the Europa Conference League, with Sarr finishing as the competition’s leading scorer with nine goals in 13 games. He ended 2025/26 with 21 goals and two assists in all competitions and also won the Community Shield after Palace beat Liverpool.

However, the Europa Conference League is UEFA’s third-tier competition, while Senegal were eliminated by Belgium in the World Cup last 16. Senegal did reach the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations final, and Sarr was a key attacking figure for Crystal Palace. He received four yellow cards.

Antoine Semenyo, fifth at 7%, scored 17 Premier League goals and provided four assists in 2025/26. Ten of those goals came for Bournemouth before his January move to Manchester City. It was a record for a Ghanaian in the division, and he became the first Ghanaian selected in the PFA Team of the Year. He was also a finalist for the league’s player of the season award.

Ghana lost to Colombia in the World Cup last 16 and did not qualify for the previous Africa Cup of Nations. Semenyo’s season was strengthened by Manchester City’s FA Cup and Carabao Cup victories. The 27-year-old winger finished 2025/27 with seven yellow cards.

Teboho Mokoena is given a 5% chance. He won the 2025/26 CAF Champions League with Mamelodi Sundowns, who beat AS FAR. Mokoena scored Sundowns’ equaliser in the second leg of the final and was named player of the match. He also won the FIFA Africa-Asia-Pacific Cup with the Brazilians.

The 29-year-old midfielder played 41 club matches, scoring seven goals and making two assists, but received nine yellow cards and one red. South Africa were knocked out of the World Cup by Canada in the last 16, although Mokoena scored against Czech Republic. The Bafana Bafana did not reach the Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals.

Lower-ranked candidates

Sadio Mane is seventh at 4% after helping Al Nassr win the 2025/26 Saudi Arabian title, his first domestic trophy since joining the club. He scored 10 goals and provided six assists in 26 appearances, finishing the season with 14 goals and nine assists in all competitions.

The 34-year-old suffered the same World Cup last-16 exit as Sarr with Senegal, but was named the best player at the previous Africa Cup of Nations after scoring twice and assisting twice as the Lions of Teranga reached the final.

Pape Gueye is rated at 3%. He made 39 appearances for Villarreal in 2025/26, scoring five goals and adding two assists, while receiving 12 yellow cards. His defining moment was scoring Senegal’s extra-time winner against Morocco in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations final in Rabat, although CAF’s subsequent ruling removed that goal from the official result.

The 27-year-old midfielder’s role remains important to Senegal’s balance, but his attacking numbers are modest. He scored twice and supplied one assist in the World Cup, including Senegal’s 5-0 win over Iraq.

Amad Diallo has a 2% chance after an individual return of four goals and two assists in 32 Premier League appearances for Manchester United. The 24-year-old winger won no trophies in 2025/26, while the club’s collective difficulties weakened his claim.

Ivory Coast lost to Germany before being eliminated 2-1 by Norway in the World Cup last 16, although Diallo scored twice. His country reached the Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals, where they lost to Egypt; Diallo scored three goals and made one assist in the tournament.

Yoane Wissa completes the list at 1%. Since joining Newcastle United in September 2025, he made 28 appearances, scoring three goals and providing two assists. He also received four yellow cards. His most notable moment was a Champions League goal in four appearances.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo lost to England late in their World Cup last-16 tie, with Wissa scoring three times during the tournament. He missed the previous Africa Cup of Nations because of a serious injury and ended the period without a team trophy.

Estimated chances: Achraf Hakimi 35%, Brahim Diaz 20%, Ismael Saibari 14%, Ismaila Sarr 9%, Antoine Semenyo 7%, Teboho Mokoena 5%, Sadio Mane 4%, Pape Gueye 3%, Amad Diallo 2%, Yoane Wissa 1%.