A new report on Welsh rugby will be published later this month which says there's no evidence to cut a team

An independent report, commissioned by the Ospreys, says that Welsh rugby should stick with four professional clubs moving forward.

It comes just a month after the Welsh Rugby Union published evidence outlining how it decided why there should only be three teams in Wales from 2028, as well as where those sides are based. The controversial three-team policy was first suggested in October 2025, with the governing body finally publishing its evidence for issuing one licence in the east, one in the west and one in Cardiff a year later.

That came in the form of an independent 68-page document, commissioned by the WRU, called the Keystone report.

Now, the Ospreys have commissioned their own report, the Welsh Rugby Data Report - which was produced by Sheffield Hallam University.

The report has studied 23 seasons of Welsh professional rugby, concluding that the "evidence does not support reducing the number of professional clubs in Wales from four to three".

It states: "The independent analysis of the data does not logically lead to a conclusion that the removal of one professional team in Wales is a strategic move grounded in evidence."

One of the report's four authors, Professor Keith Davids, said: “In our view, the rationale for change is not supported by evidence.

"Narrowing down the pool of players into fewer locations will narrow down the competition pool. This approach may not be helpful for the development of the whole system."

The WRU is adamant the game in Wales cannot financially support four equally funded teams going forward, with the union recently recording losses of £18m, and a similar result expected next year.

The union's strategy is focussed on concentrating talent and ploughing millions into a new national academy system it says will deliver the elite Welsh rugby players of the future.

WRU CEO Gavin Marshall recently said after news of the £18m loss emerged: "We need to cut the amount that we're spending on professional rugby because we're making a significant loss and even though I'm ambitious and I can see growth and I know we'll improve, we've got a long way to go to improve by £18m.

"So I think from my perspective we can't afford the level of distributions that we're making."

The initial general findings of the Ospreys-commissioned report do not address the financial factors in the details publicly released on Friday.

The Ospreys reiterated their position that rugby in Wales is strongest with the four current professional clubs.

Former Ospreys and Wales captain Alun Wyn Jones, who is now a director at the club, chaired the working group that commissioned the report.

The Ospreys, who recently moved into a refurbished St Helen's, say they will send the full report to the WRU and Professional Rugby Board later this month, asking that is is placed ahead of the rugby summit that is planned for later this year.

They will also offer a briefing for the WRU, PRB and other Welsh teams on the findings, before releasing the report in full publicly and holding briefings for supporters.

Welsh rugby's key stakeholders are due to meet at a summit before the end of the year to thrash out Welsh rugby's future path. One factor that could yet see the WRU's three-team plan change is the push to gain entry for two Welsh sides into England's Gallagher Prem. It remains unclear what would happen to the other two if that bid is accepted.

The URC has threatened the WRU with legal action after WRU CEo Abi Tierney made a formal approach to England.

"We want four Clubs," said Jones. "This is not about one club’s record against another’s.

"Cardiff, Dragons, Scarlets and Ospreys have all put players in a Wales jersey, and the report shows what the four of them bring to Welsh rugby together."

“Decisions about the future of the professional game in Wales should rest on the fullest evidence available. We commissioned this work to add to that evidence, and we asked the University to follow the data wherever it led.

"We will send the full report to the WRU as soon as it is final and we look forward to discussing it with them.”

In terms of the reports' findings, the Ospreys say that removing a team would create a "bottleneck", with fewer elite playing opportunities in Wales.

It also added that, in the last 14 years, fixtures between Welsh sides have accounted for 48 per cent of league attendances in Wales - but reducing the teams to three would see those Welsh derbies halved per season.

The report also added that Wales have performed better in the Six Nations when the Welsh clubs have performed well, also noting that all four clubs have contributed over the 23-year period that the study looked at.

“We have completed phase one of the redevelopment of the historic ground at St Helen’s, and season ticket sales and sponsorship have been very encouraging and demonstrates the community, and region is behind elite professional rugby football," said Ospreys managing director, Richard Lancaster.

"The record in this report belongs to a great many people, past and future: the players and coaches, the community clubs and schools of our region, and the supporters who have backed the Club for 23 seasons.

“Sheffield Hallam has measured all four clubs on the same basis, and we believe the findings underline the significant consequences that reducing the number of professional clubs could have for Welsh rugby as a whole. Before any such decision is taken, every option to sustain four clubs should be properly explored.”

The WRU has been asked to comment.