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Celtic have played two Europa League matches and lost both, shipping seven goals against Ferencvaros and Benfica while scoring only twice.
Martin O’Neill’s side were beaten 3-1 at Parkhead before Benfica put four past Celtic in Lisbon, leaving the Hoops bottom of their opening two results with no points.
Those defeats have taken their toll on Celtic’s European prospects, with the latest predicted standings putting them among the competition’s lowest-ranked clubs.
The latest figures from Football Rankings have Celtic sitting 29th in the projected Europa League table, with only seven clubs below them.
Celtic have been handed a 35.4% chance of making the top 24. Anything lower would mean elimination when the league phase ends.
🟠 Europa League – Predictions after Matchday 2. 📈 3 clubs are given more than a 70% chance of securing a Top 8 spot! ✅ 12 clubs are given more than a 90% chance of securing a Top 24 spot! https://t.co/ox3fzZQtj5
— Football Rankings (@FootRankings) October 17, 2026
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The forecast has O’Neill’s men picking up 7.44 points across their eight fixtures, with their final goal difference estimated at -5.76.
A top-eight finish is rated at just 1.2%, while Celtic have an 11% chance of breaking into the top 16.
Celtic’s remaining fixtures provide little comfort, with five of their six opponents given a better than 50% chance of reaching the knockout stages.
Omonia are rated at 96%, Union Saint-Gilloise at 96.6% and Besiktas at 92.6%. Marseille have a 67.3% chance of progressing, while Celta Vigo, who visit Celtic Park on Thursday, stand at 56.1%.
Only Portuguese side Torreense, rated at 29.4%, have a lower qualification probability than Celtic. Ferencvaros, who won 3-1 at Parkhead, are projected to finish eighth with 15.11 points. Benfica sit top of the predictions with 18.52 expected points and a 99.8% chance of progressing.
Celtic’s defensive collapse against Benfica has already damaged their goal difference, with O’Neill’s team now needing results against opponents the model largely expects to progress.
Perhaps the most embarrassing comparison comes from Omonia and Ferencvaros. Both are projected to collect almost twice as many points as Celtic, with Omonia sitting tenth in the rankings and Ferencvaros eighth.
Celtic, a club that entered the season targeting Champions League football, are projected to finish 29th in Europe’s second-tier competition.