After a crushing defeat against UCF, BYU will be back in action against ASU on Halloween. It will be BYU's first time facing ASU since a controversial ending headlined the 2024 matchup. BYU is the better team going into this game. However, we have seen this season that any team can lose on any given Saturday. In this article, we will highlight the key advanced metrics that give BYU the upper hand against ASU.

ASU has only faced one above average passing offense...and it didn't go well

Arizona State has only played one above average passing attack this season: Texas Tech. That game didn't go well for the Sun Devils as they allowed 43 points in the first half and 53 points total. Will Hammond was 18/26 for 232 yards in that game before the game got out of hand and Tommy Castellanos came in for garbage time.

BYU is ranked 36th in passing success rate going into this game, in the same tier as Texas Tech who ranks 32nd in passing success rate. The next best passing attacke ASU has faced is Kansas State who ranks 77th, although the Wildcats were without their starting quarterback in that game.

The other four opponents that ASU have faced rank 90th or worse in offensive success rate. As long as rain doesn't get in the way (there was rain in the forecast earlier this week), BYU should be able to move the football through the air.

ASU is one of the worst offenses BYU has faced

In terms of points per drive, ASU is the second worst offense BYU will have faced this season. The Sun Devils are ranked 102nd nationally. The only BYU opponent that is worse than ASU is TCU (121st).

ASU has struggled to stay ahead of the sticks this season - they are ranked 102nd in offensive success rate.

On paper, BYU's defense should dominate this game. However, the data indicated a similar advantage for BYU's defense against the UCF offense and UCF got the better of BYU that night. There is an important distinction between the UCF offense and the ASU offense, however. ASU's quarterbacks are not as elusive as UCF QB Keyone Jenkins. Jenkins was sacked on 6% of BYU pressures.

ASU quarterback Mikey Keene has been sacked on 23% of pressures and true freshman QB Jake Fette has been sacked on 50% of pressures. When BYU generates pressures the quarterback in this game, Kelly Poppinga's unit should have a chance to bring them to the ground. Against UCF, Jenkins' best moments came after he evaded pressure and escaped the pocket.

If the BYU defense of the first six games shows up for this contest, the Cougars should suffocate the ASU offense.

BYU's defense should be able to get off the field

As mentioned, ASU struggles to stay ahead of the sticks on offense. To make matters worse, they are one of the worst conversion down offenses (3rd & 4th downs) in college football. ASU ranks 136th in conversion down percentage. When BYU gets ASU to third down, they should be able to get off the field more often than not.

ASU is ranked 120th in college football in three-and-out rate. One out of three possessions has ended without any first downs.

This is a game where BYU's defense should be able to get the ball back to BYU's offense. If they don't, it's a bad sign for the back half of the season.

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