It’s amazing how much an unexpected run in March can change the tenor surrounding a program.

Last season was far from great for the Texas Longhorns. Expectations were modest heading into the year, and the Longhorns mostly met them with an ugly, and up and down four months of basketball. They relied on holdovers Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope, plus transfers Matas Volkietaitis and Dailyn Swain to buoy the first season under Sean Miller. Sometimes they looked quite good, others they looked pretty awful.

Texas lost a lot of basketball games last year, and even their regular season ended with a precipitous thud. They struggled defensively, and while they had a number of good wins, they had as many bad losses also.

They were only 6-9 in Quad 1 games, and so close to the cut off for inclusion into the NCAA Tournament they were sent to Dayton. As an 11 seed they squeaked by an NC State team that looked only passively interested in being there. Then they were sent to play BYU, a team with a bonafide star in AJ Dybantsa, but one who had limped to the finish line losing 10 of their last 17 games. They won there, then beat Gonzaga. Suddenly, this mediocre season turned special with a Sweet 16 appearance.

And that’s college basketball in a nutshell. You can wash away many sins with a couple well timed wins in March. Texas even began March with a blowout loss at Arkansas, a home overtime loss to a non-NCAA Tournament team in Oklahoma, and an opening round SEC Tournament loss to the lowly Ole Miss Rebels. But those results are forgotten.

Miller’s opening season was a success because they can slap Sweet 16 on a banner and hang it up in the Moody Center. But new seasons mean new expectations, and they are high in Austin.

Currently Sean Miller sits 77th on the all time coaching wins list with 508. There are 14 coaches ahead of him who are still active, the list includes names like Rick Pitino, Bill Self, Kelvin Sampson, Tom Izzo, even Miller’s mentor Herb Sendek who’s still coaching at Santa Clara. But Miller is one of just six on the list who have yet to make it to a Final Four. Some of the names wouldn’t surprise you, like Randy Bennett, who ran a great program at Saint Mary’s but not a Final Four level program. Or Jamie Dixon who had a great run at Pittsburgh, and is now at TCU.

But only one coach on the list who spent time at a blue blood level program like Miller has, and that’s Steve Alford. The current, but retiring, Nevada coach spent five plus seasons in Westwood, he was fired in the middle of his sixth season. Miller was at Arizona for 12 years, although the last three were spent navigating his name being dropped in the FBI investigation.

So when people in the media claim Miller is the best coach without a Final Four, perhaps they should stop a bit short. Miller is an accomplished coach. At Arizona, and now at Texas, he’s assembled some of the best rosters in the sport.

Miller has won a lot of games, he’s also vacated 41 wins during his time at Arizona. Just how good of a coach Miller is should be clear this year, because everyone else can buy players now. And Texas has put together one of the better rosters in college basketball.

Rick Barnes is the main reason why people think Texas basketball should be good. For 17 years he maintained such a high level of play that Texas hoops fans were spoiled by his success. Since then there have been flashes of excellence, but nothing sustainable. Chris Beard looked poised to take the program to that level, but crashed and burned. Rodney Terry was never going to fix things, especially as the SEC competition got so intense. So Miller gets his shot.

Dailyn Swain turned into an NBA player a little quicker than some hoped, he left to be the 15th pick for the Chicago Bulls after turning into one of the best players in the SEC last year. Gone also are Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope. Miller kept a tight rotation most nights, meaning he’s lost 8 of his top 9 scorers from last year. And those eight were the only players to see the floor for more than 20% of the minutes.

The sole returner from the rotation last season is Matas Vokietaitis, otherwise known as the biggest pain in the back side to play against the league last year. Even though he was a projected starter, little was known about what sort of player Miller and Texas were going to get from the Florida Atlantic transfer. But the big Lithuanian made an impression early and often. He drew so many fouls, and fouled so much, I’m not sure what the record is for most fouls being involved in, but Vokietaitis is probably up near the top of the list.

He’s a bit of a throwback big man, in that he knows exactly who he is and doesn’t stray from that. In a wild stat, per Synergy, Vokietaitis did not attempt a jump shot all last season. He attempted 299 field goals, 251 were at the rim, there were 40 hook shots and 8 runners. Zero jumpers. The next step for him involves fouling others less, to be on the floor more. Too often Vokietaitis could be drawn into wrestling matches, sometimes instigated by himself, and end up picking up unnecessary fouls. 18 times last year he finished with either 4 or 5 fouls. Clean that up and you could have the best center in the SEC.

The rest of the roster was built through the portal, with the top get being point guard Isaiah Johnson. As an unheralded 3-star guard out of California, Johnson chose Colorado and was an instant hit. In his first game he scored 24 points in 26 minutes on just 9 shots from the floor, and he was off and running. But that was Montana State, you might say? Well he dropped 21 on Texas Tech, 19 on Kansas, 24 on Iowa State, 27 on BYU, 19 on Houston, and 28 on Arizona. Isaiah’s father Chris is a former D1 basketball player who is a trainer for multiple high level NBA players, including Isaiah’s godfather DeWayne Wade. That background helped Isaiah develop the way he did. He ended up averaging 16.9 points per game and was one of the most sought after players in the portal.

Another highly sort after portal player was TCU transfer David Punch. He averaged over 14 points per game, but his scoring isn’t what makes him so valuable. He was one of the better defensive forwards available, and plays strong and physical around the rim, despite being a little undersized. He’s not a shooter, at least not at this point. And his free throw shooting is below average as well. But he’s an aggressive driver and finishes well at the rim.

Auburn transfer wing Elyjah Freeman had an up and down year in his transition from D2 basketball, but he’s a slender high flying attacker who is capable of making a three if you leave him a lone. He’s not an elite shooter, and he’s at his best when he’s crashing towards the rim. But you can’t leave him completely alone on the outside.

It’s probably best not to overlook a highly talented freshman class led by two 5-star’s in Marcus Spears, Jr. and Austin Goosby. Spears is the son of ESPN broadcaster and former NFL lineman Marcus Spears, and he reclassified from the 2027 recruiting class to play this season in Austin. So he’s on the young side, but his talent is immense. Goosby is a good athlete who has a reputation for his feel for the game. He has the frame and build to grow into and be an impact player in short order.

The ball handling duties will be fully on the shoulders of Isaiah Johnson. Especially early. Saint Mary’s transfer Mikey Lewis will begin the season on the sidelines with a broken foot. Lewis was a rare 4-star American player to commit to the Gaels, but after Randy Bennett decided to leave for Arizona State, Lewis entered the portal. He’s dynamic in the mid-range, and a bit better off the ball, but a guy who could provide protection with the ball handling duties for Johnson. That is, once he’s back healthy.

Goosby can handle the ball enough to help out as well, and it will be interesting to see how much usage Mantas Laurenčikas gets (pronounced Lore-INCH-kus). He’s a highly thought of prospect with good size and feel for the game. He’s 20 years old now, but as a 19 year old he was called up to France’s top league to finish his season last year. Many European players have struggled with the college game transition early on, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Laurenčikas is playing a bigger role later in the season.

On the wing, Freeman is likely the leader at the outset, but Amari Evans flashed for Tennessee last year and is built like a linebacker, so he’s ready made defensively. If Evans can get the offense to work he could be a big factor. Then there’s top 50 wing Bo Ogden, the son of Texas staff General Manager Chris Ogden. The younger is an elite shooter who has the build to defend and rebound in the SEC.

Outside of Vokietaitis, Texas doesn’t have a lot of proven post players. Last season former 4-star post John Clark, and English center Lewis Obiorah both redshirted. The hope is one or both can provide depth behind Matas. Spears isn’t a true post, as he’s built more like a big wing, and moves well enough to defend on the perimeter. Punch did play some five for TCU last season, and has the build to withstand some minutes there.

Eight Quad 4 games at home for a team who expects to compete at the top of the SEC is pretty terrible scheduling. On top of those 8 games, seven are to teams projected outside of the top 300. Only Southern Utah (276) sits inside the top 300. Then the ‘Horns are going to have to take care of business against Georgetown in the Rady’s Childrens Invitational just to be guaranteed a likely third Quad 1 game. Texas basically scheduled two Q1 games against Baylor and Miami, allowed the ACC-SEC Challenge to schedule them a third game, and the rest of the schedule is soft. Maybe Memphis at home will be tougher than expected, but this is otherwise a pretty pathetic approach to scheduling. In particular because the Longhorns are expected to be really good.

This could cost them a seed line or two, as scheduling around the rest of the country has picked up. Realistically they should be at least 12-2 out of non-conference play. And that’s going 2-2 in Quad 1 games.

One reason you could see Texas threatening to win the league is because they have the best road draw in the conference. If you flipped the Vanderbilt and Missouri games, Texas would have all of the bottom half teams on the road, and all the top half teams at home. This also means they have no Q3 games, and only two Quad 2 games. In 18 games there are 16 Q1 games (if these results hold, which they likely won’t).

The home and home series should be tough to navigate, but all Texas needs to do is split those 6 games, go 8-1 at home, and only drop one other road game and they’re at 12-6. But they should be favored in every road game except for Florida and Vanderbilt. If they can win at both Oklahoma and Texas A&M suddenly you’re looking at 14-4. On the low side, a 12-6 record puts them around 12-8 in Quad 1, that should be enough for a protected seed.

The reason we all should push Miller to schedule better is because this team could be really good and fun, and you want to see that team playing better teams. Texas fans and beat writers will tune in to watch them take on Southern Indiana, but the rest of the college basketball viewing public will check out on the Longhorns until December.

There aren’t many scenarios where this team is anything other than good, but they’re not perfect.

Talent can take you a long way, and this team is talented. With Mikey Lewis, there are four top 100 transfers, and three top 50 freshmen. All fixed around one of the best post players returning, in terms of production.

Matas Vokietaitis is the 6th leading returning scorer, and 2nd leading rebounder, returning to the SEC this year, and the overall leader in effective field goal percentage. Love him or hate him, he’s become a really good player. And for all the teams in this league that have questions around their front court, the Longhorns know who their guy is.

They might have a depth problem, which is probably the biggest flaw on the roster. While Florida is going to roll out their trio of bigs, Alabama has improved their front court, Vanderbilt has leaned into size, Missouri has a big roster, Kentucky has multiple 7 footers. Texas has two redshirt freshmen behind Vokietaitis, and the alternative to them is to play 6’7 David Punch at the 5.

If Punch is playing the five, the Horn’s will need to make sure there’s enough shooting on the floor. Isaiah Johnson hit 37.8% from three last year, he’s a reliable shooter. Mikey Lewis is a career 37.1% shooter, on not that many attempts as he’s looking to attack off the bounce. Elyjah Freeman was inconsistent, and Amari Evans was downright bad from distance. The freshmen will need to step up with Goosby and Ogden.

But Miller has not traditionally played very deep lineups, often just going through to about eight guys. Starting the season off without Lewis isn’t a great start, but perhaps the lighter schedule will allow him to lean heavily on his freshmen class. If, not just Goosby and Ogden, but even 4-star combo guard Joe Sterling or Laurenčikas see more minutes early that can only be a good thing for Texas and their desires for a Final Four level team.

If all goes right they could be a one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Maybe this level of talent should be a one seed. Early preseason projections have the Longhorns as high as 10th in the country. A protected seed should be the minimum goal here, and a deep run in the tournament should be the expectation. Anything can happen in March, but an 11 seeded team reaching the Sweet 16 should be well aware of that.

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections, and national media outlet predictions.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* - an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP - Games Played

%min - percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss - percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg - Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR - Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PAR - Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.

PPG - Points Per Game, RPG - Rebounds Per Game, APG - Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.