Averaging 20 points per game has become pretty normal for NBA stars, especially with how much scoring we’ve seen over the last few seasons. But heading into 2026-27, there are some pretty huge names who could suddenly fall below that number for the first time in years. And we’re talking about players who’ve been putting up 20 points almost every season for a decade, so seeing their scoring numbers drop would definitely be something new.

But here’s the thing: I don’t think any of these guys are necessarily getting worse. Some are joining teams with more offensive weapons, others are coming back from serious injuries, and a few simply don’t need to score that much anymore. I mean, look at LeBron James joining a 76ers team with three other stars who averaged over 26 points last season. How’s everyone supposed to keep scoring the same amount?

We’ve picked five established stars who could average fewer than 20 points in 2026-27, and I actually think some of them could have better seasons overall because of it. Let’s get into it, starting with the prediction I’m least confident about.

5. Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers

Okay, I get it. Putting Pascal Siakam on this list after he just averaged 24.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on 48.4% from the field seems like a pretty big reach. He’s averaged at least 20 points for seven consecutive seasons, and he’s been one of the most consistent forwards for years.

But I’m looking at this Pacers roster, and I seriously don’t see why they’d need Siakam taking almost 19 shots every night again. There’s just too much offensive talent coming back into the rotation.

First of all, Tyrese Haliburton is finally returning after missing the entire 2025-26 season with a torn right Achilles. That’s already a massive difference because Siakam had to become the Pacers’ main offensive option without him, attempting 18.6 shots per game while carrying much of the scoring responsibility.

Remember what happened in 2024-25 when Indiana reached the NBA Finals? Haliburton averaged 18.6 points and 9.2 assists, and Siakam was down to 20.2 points per game. He was literally right on the edge of dropping below 20, and that was before some of the other guys developed into better offensive players.

Andrew Nembhard is the one I’m watching the most because he took a huge step forward last season, averaging 16.9 points and 7.7 assists while handling much more responsibility. Now imagine having that version of Nembhard alongside a healthy Haliburton, with both guards able to create their own shots and run the offense.

And we haven’t even talked about Ivica Zubac yet, who wasn’t part of that 2025 Finals team and now gives the Pacers another excellent scoring option around the basket. He’s also going to get plenty of opportunities playing pick-and-roll with Haliburton, which means even fewer possessions where Siakam has to create something by himself.

And then there’s Kelly Oubre Jr., whom the Pacers added this offseason after he averaged 14.1 points on 46.7% from the field. He’s another player who’ll want his shots, especially coming off the bench, and Indiana still has Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, and Jarace Walker in the rotation.

Come on, that’s a lot of guys who can score. I just can’t see Siakam maintaining last season’s usage, especially if everyone stays healthy and the Pacers return to the fast, electric offense that got them to the Finals. Now, could Siakam still average 21 or 22 points? Absolutely, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all. He’s so efficient he doesn’t need to hijack the ball, and he’ll remain their most reliable frontcourt scorer.

But if his attempts drop closer to 14 or 15 per game, I think something around 19 points and six rebounds makes plenty of sense. That’s still excellent production for a team trying to compete for a championship, and I actually like this version of the Pacers much more.

Prediction: 19.4 PPG

4. Damian Lillard – Portland Trail Blazers

Can we talk about how crowded the Trail Blazers’ backcourt has become? Damian Lillard is finally returning after missing the entire 2025-26 season with a torn left Achilles, and the team suddenly has Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, and several good players.

That’s a pretty strange situation for a guy who’s spent over a decade as one of the NBA’s best scorers, but I think it could be perfect for him at 36. Why would Portland need him averaging 25 points again when they already have so many offensive options?

Lillard last played in 2024-25, when he averaged 24.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 7.1 assists on 44.8% from the field and 37.6% from three. He was still taking 17.1 shots per game and making 3.4 three-pointers, but that was before the Achilles injury, and I really don’t expect him to return immediately playing 35 minutes and taking 17 or 18 shots every night. Especially when the Trail Blazers have Morant and Deni Avdija coming off an All-Star season averaging 24.2 points.

There’s also the whole starting lineup situation, which I find pretty interesting. According to The Athletic, Micah Nori has doubts about whether starting Lillard and Morant together makes sense defensively, with Holiday potentially offering a better choice.

Lillard obviously expects to start, but I can see why Nori has concerns. You’re putting two smaller guards together, both coming off complicated situations, and asking them to defend Western Conference backcourts every night. I wouldn’t be surprised if Portland eventually brings Dame off the bench depending on the matchup, especially with Holiday being such a reliable defender.

And don’t forget that the Trail Blazers finished 42-40 and returned to the playoffs last season, so they’re not some rebuilding team that needs Lillard carrying everything. Avdija can be the guy, Morant is going to have the ball plenty, and Holiday and Henderson will need minutes too. I actually love the idea of Lillard spending more time playing off the ball, taking seven or eight three-pointers per game, and attacking defenses when he gets favorable switches.

I also think Portland should be extremely careful with his minutes, especially during the first half of the season. There’s no reason to rush him back into his old workload when the team has enough players to handle the scoring. If Lillard averages around 18 points and six assists while shooting efficiently, I’d consider that a very good comeback season.

He’s averaged at least 20 points in 12 consecutive seasons played, but I’m expecting that streak to end now. And if the Trail Blazers make another playoff appearance, I doubt anybody will complain about his scoring average.

Prediction: 18.1 PPG

3. Karl-Anthony Towns – New York Knicks

I wouldn’t be surprised if Karl-Anthony Towns ends up averaging 23 points this season, because he’s obviously got the talent. We’re talking about one of the most skilled offensive big men in basketball, and the Knicks are bringing back essentially the same starting lineup that just won the NBA championship.

But there’s one player I’m expecting to take a pretty significant step forward offensively, and that’s OG Anunoby. If that happens, I think Towns could actually be the one sacrificing a few shots, especially after what we saw during the playoffs.

Towns averaged 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on 50.1% from the field last season, which was his lowest scoring average since his rookie year in 2015-16. That’s already extremely close to the 20-point mark, and things got even more interesting during the championship run.

Towns posted only 15.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists in the playoffs, but he actually shot 55.1% from the field and 45.6% from three. His attempts dropped from 13.8 to 9.8 per game, and the Knicks still won the championship. So why wouldn’t they continue using him in a similar role?

Now, let’s talk about Anunoby because I genuinely think he’s going to have a career year offensively. He averaged 16.7 points during the regular season before jumping to 20.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in the playoffs, shooting an incredible 48.9% from three. That’s a huge difference, and I loved how aggressive he became when the Knicks needed another scoring option. If Mike Brown continues giving him more opportunities, I can easily see Anunoby averaging 18 or 19 points this season if his outside shooting stays that good.

And the Knicks already have Jalen Brunson as their No. 1 option after averaging 26.0 points and 6.8 assists last season. Mikal Bridges added another 14.4 points, while Josh Hart contributed 12.0 points and 4.8 assists, so it’s not like they’re desperate for Towns to score 25 every night.

I think they’d be perfectly happy with him averaging 19 points and 12 rebounds while spacing the floor and creating for his teammates. He can still dominate certain matchups, but having Anunoby become a bigger offensive weapon could make the Knicks even harder to defend.

Of course, there’s also Towns’ contract situation, with the Knicks pausing extension negotiations. That’s another storyline to watch, but I don’t think it’ll necessarily change his role on the court. The Knicks already know this lineup can win a championship with Towns taking fewer shots, and I don’t see why they’d suddenly force him to become a 25-point scorer again.

Prediction: 19.7 PPG

2. LaMelo Ball – Minnesota Timberwolves

LaMelo Ball is about to have one of the most interesting seasons of his career, and it might involve scoring fewer points than he has in years. He’s going from being the Hornets’ main offensive option to playing alongside Anthony Edwards, who averaged 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on 48.9% from the field and 39.9% from three last season.

So let’s be serious here: Edwards is going to remain the first option, and Ball should probably concentrate on doing what he’s always been great at: passing, controlling the pace, and creating easier shots for everyone else.

Ball put up 20.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists on 40.7% from the field and 36.8% from three last season, extending his streak to five consecutive years above 20 PPG. But take a look at his shot attempts, because that’s where things get pretty interesting.

He was taking 17.3 shots and 10.3 three-pointers in just 28.0 minutes per game, which is a crazy amount of offensive volume. That’s not happening with Edwards on the floor, at least not if Minnesota wants to get the most out of this pairing. I think Ball could easily become a much more efficient player by taking fewer shots and focusing on getting everyone involved.

And it’s not like the Timberwolves have only two players who can score. Jaden McDaniels averaged a career-high 14.8 points on 51.5% from the field and 41.2% from three last season, and I’m expecting him to take another step forward now that Julius Randle and Naz Reid are gone.

Then there’s Ayo Dosunmu, who just received a massive five-year, $112.0 million contract after averaging 14.8 points and shooting 43.9% from three. That’s a lot of money for someone coming off the bench, so I’m expecting Minnesota to give him enough offensive opportunities to justify that investment.

And we haven’t even mentioned Jonathan Kuminga, who’s projected to start at power forward after averaging 12.2 points and 5.6 rebounds last season. We all know Kuminga loves taking his shots, sometimes a little too much, and I don’t exactly expect him to suddenly become a player who just stands in the corner waiting for the ball.

Minnesota finished 49-33 last season and reached the second round, so the team already has a competitive roster and an established superstar. What it needed was someone who could organize the offense and take some of that playmaking responsibility away from Edwards.

Ball could average nine or 10 assists for the first time in his career if everything goes well, and something around 17 or 18 points would be more than enough. Give me 17.8 points, five rebounds, and nine assists with improved efficiency, and I’d say the Timberwolves got exactly what they needed.

Prediction: 18.4 PPG

1. LeBron James – Philadelphia 76ers

This one feels almost inevitable at this point, right? LeBron James has somehow averaged at least 20 points in all 23 seasons of his NBA career, which is incredible considering he’s now 41 years old and entering his 24th campaign.

He still posted 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists on 51.2% from the field last season with the Lakers, and that was actually his lowest scoring average ever. But now he’s joining a 76ers team with three other superstars coming off monster seasons, so I seriously don’t see how he’s supposed to maintain that average when the Sixers need his playmaking first.

Just look at what the 76ers have: Tyrese Maxey averaged 28.3 points and 6.6 assists last season, Jaylen Brown put up a career-high 28.7 points before getting traded from the Celtics, and Joel Embiid still scored 26.9 points despite playing only 38 games.

That’s three legitimate offensive stars who can take over games whenever they want, and now they’re adding LeBron to the same starting lineup. Something obviously has to change because there’s only one basketball, and I don’t think Maxey, Brown, and Embiid are suddenly going to be happy averaging 18 points each just so LeBron can continue his historic streak.

And why would LeBron even care about scoring 20 points anymore? He’s already the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, has four championships, and has basically accomplished everything possible individually. I think he’d be more than happy averaging 17 points if it means having more energy for the playoffs and getting another chance to compete for a title.

The 76ers also have VJ Edgecombe, who comes off 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists as a rookie, along with Anfernee Simons providing additional scoring off the bench. Nick Nurse has so many different offensive combinations available that LeBron could even spend plenty of minutes running the second unit while Maxey or Brown rests.

And his efficiency could improve with that approach, because he wouldn’t need to force difficult shots or constantly attack the basket. He could pick his spots, create for others, and still take over when the team needs him, just without having to score 25 points every other night.

Now, obviously, injuries could change everything, especially with Embiid’s recent history. If the 76ers lose one or two of their main scorers for several weeks, LeBron might have to increase his scoring again, and we already know he’s capable of doing that.

But assuming everyone stays relatively healthy, I’m expecting something around 17 points, six rebounds, and eight assists in fewer minutes than we’re used to seeing. That’s still excellent production from a 41-year-old player, and if Philadelphia makes a deep playoff run, I seriously doubt LeBron will care that his 20-point streak finally ended.

Prediction: 17.2 PPG