This weekend at the United States Grand Prix, Red Bull could indeed overtake McLaren in the constructors' standings. With the Woking outfit defending its place in third, drivers Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar will have to push hard if they want their team in the top three.

McLaren sits on 339 points after 17 races, just seven ahead of Red Bull on 332. The gap has shrunk quickly after Verstappen's two consecutive wins at Sepang and in Singapore, giving Red Bull its first victories with its own Ford-backed power unit. The team outscored McLaren 35 to 10 across the Malaysia weekend and 34 to 23 across Singapore.

Austin has no Sprint, so there are a maximum of 43 points available for teams.

The simple rule is that Red Bull must outscore McLaren by at least eight points. A seven-point swing would leave the teams level, with the tie settled on countback of best results. Both teams have two grand prix wins this season.

If Verstappen wins and team-mate Isack Hadjar fails to score, McLaren must score 17 points or fewer. Lando Norris third and Oscar Piastri ninth would be enough for Red Bull to go ahead by a single point. A McLaren in second, with the other car out of the points, would leave the teams level.

If Verstappen finishes second and Hadjar does not score, McLaren can score no more than 10 points: a fifth place, with the other car outside the top 10.

Isack Hadjar, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images

If Verstappen is third, McLaren’s limit drops to seven points, such as seventh and 10th.

If both McLarens fail to score, Red Bull needs only eight points, so a sixth place for either driver would see the standings change.

Every point Hadjar adds raises McLaren’s limit by the same amount. A Verstappen win with Hadjar fifth gives Red Bull 35 points, so Norris second and Piastri sixth, worth 26 points, would still see Red Bull through.

What Red Bull needs to overtake McLaren in Austin

McLaren team principal Andrea Stella is feeling relaxed about the threat the Milton Keynes outfit poses after its recent jump in performance.

“It’s what we call this season: the ping-pong,” Stella said. “I think Verstappen and Red Bull are just taking advantage of the upgrades that they have delivered. But three tenths of a second is a range that you can add with an upgrade.”

What we hear from McLaren may put fans of the team on edge. Norris has called the MCL40 “mentally exhausting” to drive, and Stella has said its underlying problems will not be fixed until the 2027 car surfaces.

Verstappen is modest as usual.

“I don’t want to say now that I will be in the fight in Austin, but yeah, the last few weekends have been great,” he said. “I just take it race by race.”