The United States Grand Prix is here with Andrea Kimi Antonelli able to take the 2026 F1 title, but our expert writers are not unanimous in predicting the Italian for the win.

Antonelli must win the United States GP this Sunday to get the chance to leave the Circuit of the Americas as a Formula 1 champion for the first time. Quite simply, anything short of the victory in Austin, Texas will not be enough for him to earn the title with five rounds to spare.

Mercedes teammate George Russell currently trails Antonelli by 102 points after 17 of this year’s 23 scheduled rounds, with a maximum of 150 points still available. Should Antonelli win the United States GP and Russell is no higher than P9, it would then fall on Ferrari star Lewis Hamilton to finish no worse than fourth in Texas to take the title fight to Mexico City.

Red Bull rival Max Verstappen can also thwart Antonelli’s efforts to win the 2026 F1 drivers’ title at the United States GP this weekend, and the four-time champion heads to COTA with the momentum. Across the past two rounds, Verstappen has won the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, the F1 Sprint at Marina Bay and the Singapore Grand Prix all from pole position.

With that in mind, F1 Oversteer’s expert writers have offered their predictions for the 2026 United States GP, from who the favourite to win at COTA will be and whether Antonelli will follow in Hamilton’s footsteps by winning a title while driving for Mercedes in Austin, Texas.

Which driver is the favourite to score pole position for the 2026 United States Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – Max Verstappen: “Qualifying for the United States Grand Prix on Saturday will see Max Verstappen equal Lewis Hamilton’s record of three for the most pole positions at the Circuit of the Americas to date. Verstappen took pole in Texas in 2021 and 2025, and the Red Bull RB22 is clearly now capable of sealing results on multiple track configurations.”

Ashley Hambly – Max Verstappen: “The floodgates have been opened for four-time world champion Max Verstappen, and I’m expecting total dominance from him for the remainder of the season. The Red Bull driver loves the COTA circuit, and already has the blueprint to take pole here and add further sweat to the brows of Mercedes’ brightest engineers.”

Sean Fisher – Charles Leclerc: “Despite having four front row starts this season, Charles Leclerc is still waiting for his first pole position in 2026. If Ferrari can get the best out of their new upgrade package, I can see him leading the pack during qualifying in Austin.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Max Verstappen: “Red Bull have the package to win on any track now, and you get the feeling that the floodgates are going to open. No one can deal with Max Verstappen at the moment, and I can’t see that changing at COTA.”

Who will win the 2026 United States Grand Prix? And who will join them on the COTA podium?

Kyle Archer – Verstappen, Antonelli, Leclerc: “Red Bull’s Max Verstappen has all of the momentum on his side ahead of the 2026 United States GP following his dominant displays in Malaysia and Singapore. So, while Mercedes gem Andrea Kimi Antonelli will no doubt be a podium threat, his focus may be on Charles Leclerc in Ferrari’s upgraded SF-26 at COTA.”

Ashley Hambly – Verstappen, Hadjar, Russell: “I can’t see anyone rivalling Max Verstappen once the Grand Prix gets underway on Sunday, but I can see Isack Hadjar joining him in securing Red Bull their first one-two finish since 2024.

“George Russell will complete the podium, with Kimi Antonelli simply focusing on getting to the chequered flag and inching closer towards that maiden F1 title.”

Sean Fisher – Verstappen, Leclerc, Hamilton: “While I think Ferrari will be quick at COTA, I don’t trust them (nor do their drivers) to execute a strategy that can stop Max Verstappen, who I think will claim his third successive victory on Sunday.

“Mercedes and McLaren are still wrestling to figure out their recent upgrade packages, and I expect Kimi Antonelli will err on the side of caution in COTA.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Verstappen, Antonelli, Russell: “Mercedes may now have some sort of understanding of their recent upgrade package, and I reckon they will recover this weekend for a double podium in the United States GP, but I do not think they have enough to match Max Verstappen and Red Bull for the win now.”

Who will be the biggest surprise at the 2026 United States Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – George Russell: “The Circuit of the Americas has never been a great track for George Russell, and it will not be a happy hunting ground for the Brit in the 2026 United States Grand Prix. Russell has never finished higher than fifth in a United States GP to date, and the form of the front-runners of late suggests that he will struggle to do better in 2026.

“The pressure is on Russell to deliver if he wants to stamp his mark on Mercedes, more so than the title fight now. But it is more likely that Russell will only match his P5 results from 2022 and 2023 or his P6 results from 2024 and 2025, which will give Andrea Kimi Antonelli every opportunity to then win the 2026 F1 title in next weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix.”

Ashley Hambly – Isack Hadjar: “All of the reasons why I think Max Verstappen will excel in Texas also apply to his Red Bull teammate, Isack Hadjar. While I still think Verstappen will be on course for a perfect weekend, I’m adamant that Hadjar will be in a prime position to potentially take a maiden victory if anything untoward were to happen to the Dutchman.”

Sean Fisher – Oliver Bearman: “The big news at Haas last week was that Rafael Camara is joining the team for 2027, and I’m backing his soon-to-be teammate Oliver Bearman to thrive at COTA. The Briton scored a P9 finish in Texas last season, and I expect more points from him this year.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Esteban Ocon: “Since it was announced that Esteban Ocon will be leaving Haas at the end of the year, his performances have looked stronger. He seems to have found some pace – probably to show that he wants to stay in F1 next year – so I reckon he’ll have another decent race this weekend and break into the points.”

Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 drivers’ title in Austin, Texas?

Kyle Archer – No: “While it may be mathematically possible for Andrea Kimi Antonelli to win the 2026 F1 drivers’ title in Sunday’s United States Grand Prix, the permutations required for it to happen will make it far too difficult for the Italian to secure the crown in Austin, Texas.”

Ashley Hambly – No: “The permutations mean Kimi Antonelli will need a lot to go his way this weekend, and I just can’t see it happening.

“On the flip side, I’d rather him be crowned at a more symbolic circuit, such as Interlagos in two weeks’ time. The young Italian has touched on his idolisation of Ayrton Senna in the past, so it would be quite a fitting site for him to clinch his first world title.”

Sean Fisher – No: “Ultimately, no, the title won’t be clinched here. It’s looking more likely to be in Brazil or Las Vegas, and the latter would certainly make for a glamorous celebration.”

Tyler Rowlinson – No: “It is a formality that Kimi Antonelli will win the 2026 title but with so many results needing to go his way, this is not the weekend to do it. It would be amazing to see him win the title this weekend, but it’s not realistic, and besides, he can bide his time.”