Opta's supercomputer backs LaLiga leaders Barcelona with a 54.4% win probability against Real Madrid at Spotify Camp Nou. Madrid head into El Clásico missing the suspended Vinícius Júnior and ill Thibaut Courtois as they try to close the six-point gap.

Barcelona are favourites to beat Real Madrid in Sunday’s El Clásico, with Opta’s supercomputer giving the LaLiga champions a 54.4% chance of victory ahead of the highly anticipated clash at Spotify Camp Nou.

The two Spanish giants meet on Sunday, October 25, 2026, with Barcelona looking to maintain their perfect start to the league season and Real Madrid hoping to close the gap at the top.

According to key stats from Opta Analyst, Barcelona have a 54.4% chance of winning, compared with 26.1% for Real Madrid.

The probability of a draw stands at 19.5%.Barcelona lead the table with 27 points after winning all nine of their opening league matches, while Real Madrid sit third with 21 points.

A victory for Barcelona would extend their advantage over their rivals to nine points, putting further pressure on Real Madrid in the early title race.

Barcelona head into the match after beating Real Betis 5-2 in their last LaLiga outing, extending their winning run to nine matches.

Hansi Flick’s side have scored 39 goals in their opening nine league games, highlighting their attacking strength this season.

Lamine Yamal has been one of their standout performers. Raphinha also remains an important attacking option as Barcelona prepare to face their biggest rivals.

Lamine Yamal

However, Barcelona suffered a 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League during the week, giving them a setback ahead of the Clasico.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, beat Sevilla 4-1 in their last league match and defeated RB Leipzig 4-1 in the Champions League.

Kylian Mbappé scored in their champions league fixture which could be a confidence booster for the French international.

Kylian Mbappe of Real Madrid CF celebrates after scoring his team s first goal during the UEFA Champions League 2026 27

The visitors will be without Vinícius Júnior, who is suspended following his red card against Villarreal.

Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has also been ruled out of Sunday's match because of a flu-like illness.

Thibaut Courtois / Photo source: Real Madrid

Barcelona (4-2-3-1): Joan García; Xavi Espart, Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín, João Cancelo; Rodri, Pedri; Lamine Yamal, Fermín López, Anthony Gordon; Raphinha.

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Andriy Lunin; Denzel Dumfries, Ibrahima Konaté, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella; Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler; Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Yan Diomande; Kylian Mbappé.

Recent El Clásico recordBarcelona won the most recent LaLiga meeting between the sides at Spotify Camp Nou, beating Real Madrid 2-0 in May 2026. Marcus Rashford and Ferran Torres scored in that match.

Barcelona will now aim to extend their strong home record against Madrid, while the visitors will be looking to respond and reduce the six-point gap between the teams.