About a quarter of the way through the club season, your place in the table only means so much. In the Premier League and Bundesliga, 14 teams -- including Ipswich Town, Paderborn and even Tottenham Hotspur -- are within six points of the top four. In Ligue 1, it's 13. In LaLiga, 14 teams are within six points of the relegation zone. You can find some separation here and there, but we're just getting started, and we only have a partial picture of how things will end up.

We also know that the table is lying a little bit. We see funky results all the time, and they have an outsized impact when we're seen only a small portion of matches. Still, by this point in the 2026-27 campaign, each Big Five team has played hundreds and hundreds of possessions, and we know who is creating (or allowing) the best chances. Thanks to xG, we also know what that means.

Essentially, xG is a chance creation metric. It obviously doesn't guarantee success, especially in the short term, but over the long haul a team's ability to create superior shot quality and/or volume is more predictive than simply who's putting the ball in the net in a small sample. And by comparing who's generated the most points to who's created chance creation advantages, with a fun trend line in between, we can get a grasp of who is ahead of or behind where they should be.

Who's both lucky and good? Who's good, but unlucky? Who's the opposite?

Here are some xG standouts, for better or worse, in Europe's Big Five leagues.

Lucky and good

Definition: Teams with an xG differential of at least +0.3 per game, but more points than expected

Lazio. Lazio have finished seventh or worse in Serie A for three straight years, and due to an ongoing fan protest of club president Claudio Lotito, they're averaging a league-worst home attendance of 9,515. They've also only dropped two points in nine league matches, and they're tied with Inter atop the table. Pretty wild stuff.

It's also probably unsustainable stuff.

While they've enjoyed a few genuinely dominant performances (like a 6-2 win at Sassuolo), they've also scored 22 goals from shots worth just 15.5 xG. Forward Tijjani Noslin, winger Gustav Isaksen and midfielder Kenneth Taylor have combined for nine goals from 3.9 xG; I probably don't have to spell out how unsustainable that is. Lazio have stockpiled enough points to remain in the Champions League hunt for a while, but there's a goal-scoring slump in their future, whether or not there are fans in the stands to see it.

Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone scoffs at your advanced stats. Over the past 12 full seasons, Atletico have produced a goal differential higher -- and in some cases, much higher -- than their xG differential 11 times. In fact, over the Simeone era, their GD in league play (+504) is 46% higher than their xGD (+346.0). Dark magic is a real thing, I guess.

Atleti have always been happy allowing opponents to hammer shots into a box cluttered by defenders (with the immaculate Jan Oblak behind them), and they've always had impressive finishers -- Antoine Griezmann (143 goals from 113.6 xG) and Angel Correa (68 from 57.4) in particular -- ready to turn a half-chance into a goal. But even without either Griezmann or Correa, they're overachieving again this fall. Oblak remains excellent, Álex Baena has picked up the "major finishing overachiever" mantle, and in four matches with a negative xG differential, Atleti have scored two wins, a draw and only one loss.

Manchester City. No one else has been Lazio-level lucky this season, but City damn near packed a season's worth of xG fortune into one match -- a 5-3 win over Sunderland in which they generated 2.8 xG and allowed 3.6. It was their only match with a negative xG differential this season, but between that and a 1-0 win over Manchester United (xGD: +0.1), they could have easily dropped more points than they actually have this season.

They have an xG cheat code in habitually excellent finisher Erling Haaland (nine goals from shots worth 6.1), but they've been lucky that their defense (seventh in xG allowed) hasn't been more costly.

Borussia Dortmund. It's been difficult to get a read on BVB this season. They've generated a positive xG differential in all seven Bundesliga matches, and their only losses have come against Bayern in the Franz Beckenbauer Super Cup and at Bodø/Glimt in their North Pole fortress in the Champions League. But after winning six straight before the international break, they sandwiched a pair of frustrating draws around the Bodø/Glimt loss upon their return.

Dortmund are on the lucky-and-good list because their defense has been a bit too successful. They've allowed goals in just two Bundesliga matches, and their four goals allowed have come from shots worth 7.3 xG. Yes, they have a high-level goalkeeper in Gregor Kobel, but opponents have simply missed the target quite a bit, too. That likely won't continue, nor will their current tie with Bayern in the league table.

Como. Como are easily Serie A's happiest Champions League story thus far, having won two of their first three matches in their debut in the competition. In theory, they've balanced those duties with solid league play, too -- they're fourth in the league and only five points from first. But they've been at least a little bit fortunate: They've suffered a negative xG differential in four of nine Serie A matches, but they've won two of those four and drawn in one.

That said, the trends are strong: Since returning from the international break, they've suffered a negative xGD only once and have taken 10 points from four league matches. Including their Champions League stomping of Manchester United, they've generated an xGD of at least plus-1.1 in three straight. They were lucky and good, but they might just be good now.

Good, but unlucky

Definition: Teams with an xG differential of at least +0.3 per game and fewer points than expected

Nottingham Forest. If you didn't look at the table, you'd think Oliver Glasner is doing great work in his first season as manager in Nottingham. Forest beat Aston Villa and drew with Liverpool at Anfield, and for the season they're sixth in xG created (13.4), second in xG allowed (9.0) and fifth in overall xG differential. The fundamentals are in great shape.

Somehow they're also 18th in the table, behind even Glasner's direction-less former employer, Crystal Palace. They've turned shots worth 13.4 xG into only six goals; attackers Morgan Gibbs-White, Liam Delap and Chris Wood have attempted 38 shots worth 5.3 xG, but they've put only eight shots on target and scored twice. Forest have generated a positive xG differential in six of eight matches and have somehow won just one of them. That they will almost certainly right the ship in this regard and start winning matches soon, but how many unnecessary points will they have dropped by then?

Brest. After surging to third in Ligue 1 in 2023-24 and qualifying for the Champions League, Brest slipped to ninth and then 12th in the last two seasons. Now they're 13th. It appears the balloon is losing helium.

If the results start matching the chance creation, however, a turnaround is possible. They're second in Ligue 1 in xG differential, well behind PSG but well ahead of everyone else. They've created a dominant xG differential of +1.9 or better in four matches but have somehow won only one of them. Both their finishing and defense have let them down at times, but midfielder Joris Chotard is fifth in the league in chances created, and the combo of young wingers Kamory Doumbia and Pathé Mboup with veteran big man Ludovic Ajorque has created a number of dangerous opportunities.

This is one of France's better teams, no matter what the table says.

Villarreal. Villarreal are third in xG differential and 10th in LaLiga. They have dropped unlikely points to Atletico Madrid (2-2 draw, +2.8 xG differential), Elche (0-0 draw, +2.1 xGD) and Alaves (1-0 loss, +1.0). Forwards Georges Mikautadze and Ayoze Pérez have scored just four goals from shots worth 8.4 xG; in the Champions League, meanwhile, they've scored two goals from 1.2.

Aside from finishing, there's nothing inherently wrong with this squad. They're third in shots per possession margin and fourth in xG per shot margin. They play a pretty possession game -- Renato Veiga is one of only two players in LaLiga (along with Barcelona's Gerard Martín) to already have over 100 progressive passes and 100 progressive carries -- without giving up much on the counter. But they're eight points behind fourth-place Real Betis; they have some ground to make up.

Bournemouth. Only Manchester City, Arsenal and Brentford have led more Premier League matches this season than Bournemouth, but somehow the Cherries have turned leads in six matches -- and positive xG differentials in six matches -- into just two wins. Marcus Tavernier has scored a lovely five goals from shots worth 3.6 xG, but the rest of the team has just six goals from shots worth 10.9. They aren't generating the sizable advantages they should, and they've been outscored 4-0 from the 80th minute on. They're third in xG differential but 13th in the table because of the late leaks.

It could be worse -- most of their unfortunate results have been draws and not losses. But with so many bigger clubs struggling out of the gate, Bournemouth had a chance to establish a good spot in the race for a top-five finish. They're off of that pace.

Bayern Munich. Maybe one day this hard-luck club will catch a break. Alas, the 35-time German champions have dropped points twice -- 0-0 at Schalke (xG differential: +1.7), 2-2 at Augsburg (+2.5) -- despite dominating the early stages of the season as much as ever.

Seriously, though, this is ridiculous:

Every so often, the Bundesliga figures out how to balance great crowds, fun stories and sustained challenges for Bayern, but it doesn't appear this will be one of those years, even if those two draws mean Bayern and Borussia Dortmund are tied in points at the moment. Bayern's xGD is actually higher now than it was after they won their first seven matches last season.

Ballon d'Or winner (!) Harry Kane has gone through his version of a finishing funk (he has four league goals from shots worth 5.2 xG), and Serge Gnabry is in a similar boat (one goal from 2.2 xG). Something tells me they'll be all right.

Bad, but unlucky

Definition: Teams with an xG differential worse than minus-0.3 per game and fewer points than expected

Venezia. It's a yo-yo period in Venice. Venezia were promoted from Serie B in 2021, but went straight back down. They came back up in 2024, went back down in 2025, then came right back up in 2026. And through eight matchdays, they have three points and are last in the Serie A table.

However, they haven't been that bad. This team obviously isn't loaded with proven finishers, but scoring just six goals from shots worth 14.5 xG is severely unfortunate. Forwards John Yeboah, Albion Rrahmani and Lion Lauberbach somehow have one goal from 5.1 xG; they aren't generating ridiculously high-quality shots, but that is still some unsustainably poor finishing. Venezia have generated a positive xG differential in four of nine matches, and they're 14th overall in xGD. They'll have a chance to stay up if their finishing begins to reflect their actual chance creation.

Borussia Mönchengladbach. The five-time German champions finally notched a win last weekend, shocking Stuttgart 3-2. It was both deserving and a long time coming. They had lost their first six league matches, alternating between awful (losing to RB Leipzig and Freiburg by a combined 8-0) and unlucky (4-3 losses to Elversberg and Mainz despite a combined xGD of +0.5).

The club hired former St. Pauli manager Alexander Blessin on Sept. 22, and while he made an immediate impact on their defense, they finally generated some offense in Stuttgart too. American right midfielder Joe Scally and 17-year old left midfielder Wael Mohya each had a goal and an assist in that match, and if Gladbach can generate production like that from the wings, maybe it will offset the black hole of production they've gotten from their center forwards in the absence of injured veteran Tim Kleindienst.

Valencia. After pulling nine points from their first 11 league matches last year and 10 from their first 15 in 2024-25, Valencia have just six points after 10 matches this season. Only Villarreal and Osasuna have been worse at finishing the season: Valencia have turned shots worth 10.8 xG into only seven goals. In matches against Real Betis (1-0 loss), Celta Vigo (0-0 draw) and Athletic Club (0-0 draw) they attempted 40 shots worth 3.3 xG, and none went in the net. Those matches could have easily produced six to nine points ... but yielded just two instead.

Despite average defensive numbers, there's no way to say this team is anything better than below average. But while they're growing awfully familiar to relegation scraps at the moment -- and if you play with fire enough, you will get burned -- I can't say they're actually relegation-worthy just yet.

Troyes. Back in Ligue 1 after a three-year absence, Troyes attempt more shots than their opponents and press frequently. They don't attempt many good shots, but they rank 15th in xG created and 10th in xG allowed. That they only have five points from eight matches is therefore a smidgen unlucky. They've scored only five goals from shots worth 9.7 xG, and they've allowed 16 goals from shots worth 13.2. A lot of that damage comes from one match -- a 6-2 loss to Strasbourg in which both teams generated 2.9 xG -- but forwards Renaud Ripart and Jeremy Le Douaron have combined for two goals on 4.7 xG. Finish at more normal levels, and they'll have a solid shot at survival.

Sunderland. Sunderland were the "stats don't matter" team of 2025-26, ranking 18th in the Premier League in xG differential, but somehow finishing seventh and grabbing a spot in the Europa League. You usually don't have to wait long for what we'll call statistical comeuppance. This year they've actually improved to 15th in xG differential, and they've generated a positive xGD in four of eight matches, but they've won just one because aside from Brian Brobbey (three goals from shots worth 3.2 xG), no one can turn shots into goals.

Sunderland rank third in the league in xG per shot, but they're 18th in goals and haven't scored in a league match since Sept. 20. That puts them at the bottom of the table. A lot of teams are struggling at the moment, so they're not in too big a hole, but after this weekend's trip to Coventry City, their schedule gets awfully tricky.

Lucky and bad

Definition: Teams with an xG differential worse than minus-0.3 per game but more points than expected

Frosinone. Frosinone have been promoted to Serie A four times since 2015; they have yet to avoid going straight back down. That they're currently sixth in points per game, ahead of mighty Juventus, is a thrilling story. But it's really hard to believe this story will last. They're also 18th in xG differential, having scored 17 goals from shots worth 13.1 xG while allowing 13 goals from shots worth 19.5.

This is unsustainable in obvious ways, but as Sunderland learned last year, if you stockpile points early, you can ride it out when regression to the mean invariably hits. They're already nine points above the drop zone with a game in hand; from here, it won't take too much additional good fortune for them to survive a year in Serie A for the first time.

Elversberg. The most delightful early Bundesliga story is also a fortunate one. Tiny Elversberg, from a town of 13,000 people, have three wins and 10 points from seven matches in their top-division debut. They're a healthy eighth in the table, but they also have yet to actually generate a positive xG differential in a match, and in three one-goal wins they scored 11 goals from shots worth 7.4 xG.

This is an optimistic team with fun attacking ideas, and maybe they can continue to avoid the relegation hunt with bursts of excellence from players such as 22-year-old David Mokwa (1.2 xG, two goals) and 21-year-old Maurice Krattenmacher (2.4 xG, three goals). But they lost 4-0 to RB Leipzig last weekend, and it feels like there might be a few more heavy defeats in their future. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Marseille. Not only are Marseille a terribly disappointing eighth in Ligue 1 at the moment, but they're lucky to even be that high. Their 18 goals scored (first in the league) have come from just 13.6 xG (seventh), while their 18.5 xG allowed (last) has turned into only 13 goals (11th). Last week's 4-3 win over Le Havre featured a minus-1.6 xG differential.

Only Strasbourg have a lower league xG differential than l'OM right now. Marseille do have historically solid finishers like Amine Gouiri and Igor Paixão pacing the attack, and a lot of their defensive overachievement came from a single match -- a 2-1 loss to PSG in which they allowed shots worth 5.1 xG. Still, the fundamentals do not suggest that manager Bruno Genesio is fielding a team worth a spot in a European competition at the moment.

Cagliari. Like Frosinone, Cagliari has stocked up on some early points (13 in nine Serie A matches) thanks to some early good fortune. They've suffered a negative xG differential in six of nine matches, but have won two of those with a draw. They've gotten spectacular goalkeeping from Elia Caprile thus far, but allowing just 13 goals from shots worth 17.3 xG is pretty fortunate.

Strangely, though, it's offset some poor finishing from Cagliari, too: While left winger Daniel Maldini is on a hot streak (five goals from shots worth 3.4 xG), the rest of the team has just three goals from 8.1 xG, and if their own finishing progresses more than opponents', they could remain mid-table for quite a while longer.

Newcastle United. Let's isolate that PPG vs. xGD chart above with just Premier League teams.

Maybe no attack in Europe has defied xG more than Newcastle's, and in two different directions.

- Yoane Wissa: 1 goal from shots worth 3.0 xG (minus-2.0 difference)
- Everyone else: 11 goals from shots worth 6.2 xG (plus-4.8 difference)

Wissa has done a great job of generating nearly one-third of Newcastle's xG by himself, but he's been in a major finishing slump. And it's been more than offset by the fact that other guys can't seem to miss.

Newcastle ranks 16th in shots per possession margin and 19th in xG per shot margin; they've generated a positive xG differential in only one match, but incredibly, they lost that match and have only lost two of seven with a negative xGD. It either works (two of three wins were by two goals) or really, really doesn't (two of three losses were by three goals). And I honestly don't have much of an idea of what to expect from them moving forward. I'm not incredibly optimistic, though.