France will need the stars to align if they are to end a sorry run of nine defeats from their last 10 matches against South Africa, captain Antoine Dupont said on Thursday.

In that run, the Springboks even dished out a humbling 32-17 defeat for the French at the Stade de France last year despite playing the entire second half with 14 men following lock Lood de Jager’s red card at the end of the first period.

‘Effective strategy’

“I’ve played against them in different contexts, but recently they have had a lot of bulk and a very clear and effective strategy,” Dupont said ahead of Friday’s Nations Championship clash in Paris.

Kick-off is at 22:10 (SA time).

Dupont has played in five defeats from six encounters against the world champions, including their quarter-final exit on home soil at the 2023 World Cup.

“We have to pull out the right match at the right time to get out of this spiral,” said Dupont, who will line up in the unfamiliar number 10 jersey on Friday due to a spate of injuries to flyhalves.

Dupont acknowledged that the Springboks are the favourites but insisted that France were “capable of winning against anyone”.

“We will have to surprise ourselves and them. We’re not in the most favourable situation but we have nothing to lose,” he added about France’s injury problems.

“We have to play without complex,” he added.

France coach Fabien Galthie had spoken on Wednesday about how little space and time South Africa afford their opponents, but Dupont expects Les Bleus to create attacking opportunities nonetheless.

“Even though they push up very quickly and bring a lot of intensity, you can still break their lines, like with every team,” said Dupont.

“We will try to exploit those gaps by playing our own game.

“There are possible solutions against them, but you must first meet the physical challenge and win the collisions.

“And then, we have to take our chances, because there won’t be many.”

One day to train

Dupont said he had had only one day to train with halfback partner Maxime Lucu as he prepares to start at flyhalf for France for the first time in his 66th appearance.

Both are scrumhalves and most people expected Lucu to start in the number 10 jersey as he had come on in that position when Romain Ntamack went off injured against Fiji last week.

“We both have that versatility (of being able to play in both positions) and we’ve tried to prepare some things with the only day of training that we’ve had,” said Dupont.

World Rugby No 1 ranking on the line

Should France pull off an upset win over the Springboks, South Africa will lose their current World Rugby No 1 ranking.

Heading into the clash, the Springboks lead the way on 93.09 points, 0.44 ahead of New Zealand on 92.65.

France are in fourth place on 87.49.

A win by 15 points or fewer by France will see the Springboks lose 1.56 points and drop to second, with France moving up to third place.

A victory by 16 or more points by France will see the Springboks lose 2.34 points, with France again moving up to third place.

Should the match end in a draw after 80 minutes, the Springboks will lose 0.56 points and drop to second, but France would stay in fourth place.

A win by the Springboks by 15 points or less will see them pick up 0.44 points and stay in first place, while a 16-plus point victory would see Rassie Erasmus’ men collect another 0.66 points, also extending their overall lead.

Prediction

South Africa to win by 8 points

Teams

France

15 Théo Attissogbe, 14 Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang, 13 Kalvin Gourgues, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Antoine Dupont (captain), 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Grégory Alldritt, 7 Cameron Woki, 6 François Cros, 5 Mickaël Guillard, 4 Florian Verhaeghe, 3 Sipili Falatea, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros

Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Régis Montagne, 19 Charles Ollivon, 20 Tom Staniforth, 21 Esteban Capilla, 22 Axel Desperes, 23 Émilien Gailleton

South Africa

15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Lood de Jager, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche

Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Cameron Hanekom, 21 Paul de Villiers, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok

Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Christophe Ridley (England), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)