Ferrari know Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc may have one arm tied behind their backs at the 2026 F1 Mexico City Grand Prix this weekend, in round 19 of the season.

Formula 1 has headed straight from Austin, Texas for the United States Grand Prix to Mexico City for the third-leg of the second of three triple-headers to finish the 2026 season. Last week’s race at COTA was fruitful for Leclerc, but Ferrari are not that confident in Mexico City.

Leclerc finished second as Mercedes driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli won the United States GP, extending Ferrari’s recent podium streak to three Grands Prix, after Hamilton’s P3 at Sepang and Leclerc’s P2 in Singapore. Ferrari are yet to secure four successive rostrums this season.

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Ferrari need their latest floor upgrade to negate their engine deficit in Mexico City

The mood in Maranello ahead of this weekend’s Mexico City GP, during which Antonelli can win the 2026 F1 title, is also rather pessimistic about their podium chances. It is understood that Ferrari’s engine simulations suggest Mexico City’s altitude will punish their small turbo, given that their turbocharger will have to work harder at high revs to compress the thin air.

And Gazzetta dello Sport also now suggests that the ‘cornerstone’ on which Ferrari can build their dreams for the Mexico City GP will be the effect of the floor upgrade that they debuted in America. What Hamilton and Leclerc may achieve at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is likely to ‘hinge’ on whether Ferrari’s floor upgrade at COTA can negate their engine deficit.

Due to the thin air in Mexico City, the F1 teams will run their Monaco-spec high-downforce packages this weekend. But the floor on the Ferrari SF-26 will be vital for generating enough downforce that Hamilton and Leclerc do not encounter excessive sliding that would damage their tyres, given that the front and rear wings will also become less impactful than normal.

Ferrari overhauled the aero package on the SF-26 last time out in Austin, as they introduced changes to the leading floor edge and the bargeboard area to create more downforce. Their upgrades at COTA even extended to a new sidepod inlet design and changes to the diffuser.

Such was the impact of Ferrari’s upgrades that Leclerc was around 1.4s per lap quicker than Antonelli towards the end of the United States GP, once they had pitted the Monegasque for the hard C2 Pirelli tyres. Pirelli has, however, supplied the C3 tyres that were the mediums in America as the hards in Mexico City, plus the C4 and C5 tyres due to the lack of asphalt grip.