Mercedes can leave the Mexico City Grand Prix with both world championships, but only if Ferrari have one of their worst Sundays of the season.

To wrap up the constructors' crown this Sunday, the German team must outscore the Scuderia by 39 points. In practice that means a Mercedes win, the second W17 on the podium and almost nothing for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.

The drivers' title looks close to a formality, as Kimi Antonelli needs only two points to become champion at the Autodrómo Hermanos Rodríguez. The teams' fight is tighter on paper. Mercedes arrive in Mexico on 607 points to Ferrari's 474, which puts the gap at 133. There are 215 points left over the final five rounds, and that falls to 172 once Sunday's race is over.

Mercedes last won the constructors' championship in 2021, and a ninth title would draw them level with Williams on the all-time list.

Mercedes need a win and a second podium to beat the maths

To be champions in Mexico, Mercedes have to leave the race at least 172 points ahead, which is exactly the number of points still available afterwards. From a 133-point lead, that requires a net gain of 39. With a win worth 25, second place 18 and third 15, only two Mercedes results get there:

• Mercedes 1-2 (43 points): Ferrari can score no more than four points between their two cars.
• Mercedes 1-3 (40 points): Ferrari can score one point at most, so a single tenth place is the ceiling.
• Mercedes 2-3 (33 points): not enough. Even if Ferrari score nothing, the lead only grows to 166.

A lead of exactly 172 would still be enough. Ferrari could only match it by finishing 1-2 at all four remaining races, and Mercedes, who have won 12 of the 18 races so far, would then win the tie-break on victories.

Antonelli's crown comes with any constructors' clinch

Put the two sets of maths together and one thing stands out: if Mercedes win the teams' title on Sunday, Antonelli is guaranteed to be champion as well. Both routes need Antonelli or George Russell to win with the other on the podium, and even third place gives Antonelli 15 points, far more than the two he needs.

If Antonelli clinches his title with a ninth place, the constructors' fight moves on to Brazil.

Ferrari's recent form points to Interlagos

It is far from certain that Mercedes would be able to close the constructors' battle in Mexico City. Scuderia have outscored Mercedes at each of the last three race weekends, and even Antonelli's win in Austin did not widen the gap: Ferrari cut it from 134 to 133 points. After Ferrari's dry spell of podiums that started after Spa-Francorchamps, the Italian outfit has also finished on the podium during the last three rounds.

That makes the Sao Paulo Grand Prix a week later the more realistic date. If the title is not settled in Mexico, Mercedes need to leave Interlagos 129 points ahead, four fewer than their current lead.