ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes No. 9 Indiana’s defense is good enough to beat No. 18 USC in Bloomington, even with the defending national champions undecided at quarterback and their offense mired in a four-game slump.

On his Always College Football Week 11 preview, McElroy picked Indiana to win 23-20 and said the Hoosiers’ offense “has been stuck in neutral for quite a while” heading into a game with College Football Playoff seeding on the line.

Why does McElroy ignore Ohio State?

USC’s 30-18 win over Ohio State on Halloween and Indiana’s 19-15 home loss to the Buckeyes two weeks earlier have fueled comparisons all week, but McElroy dismissed them outright.

“USC beat Ohio State by 12 points on Halloween. Indiana lost to the Buckeyes by four at home, which is exactly the kind of common-opponent math that keeps people up at night, right? I don’t think it matters at all,” McElroy said.

The circumstances support his point. Indiana faced Julian Sayin, while USC saw freshman Luke Fahey in his first career start after Sayin got hurt against the Hoosiers. Ohio State’s skid has continued since, with the Buckeyes falling behind Iowa in our latest Big Ten power rankings.

The playoff committee still docked Indiana for its recent form, dropping the 8-1 Hoosiers from No. 4 to No. 9 in Tuesday’s rankings.

Josh Hoover and Indiana’s offense

Indiana has scored 20, 15, 13 and 23 points in its last four games, and two of those wins needed overtime. Josh Hoover has battled a right arm injury since the Ohio State loss, and Curt Cignetti pulled the TCU transfer at halftime against Minnesota after an 8-of-19 first half.

Grant Wilson finished 9 of 17 for 156 yards and hit Charlie Becker for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime. Cignetti hasn’t committed to either quarterback for USC.

“We’ll see how the week plays out, and we’ll see who we trot out there,” Cignetti said Monday.

McElroy liked what he saw from the seventh-year senior. “I thought he did a pretty good job in that matchup. By the way, he’s willing to throw it deep,” he said.

Cignetti also admitted the Minnesota game looked like a team that had “played 19 games in a row instead of nine.”

How does USC keep it close?

Jayden Maiava leads the Big Ten in passing yards and touchdown passes, and USC has leaned on him because its run game hasn’t moved defenders. McElroy said that puts the game on Maiava’s arm against Indiana’s four-man rush, led by Tobi Osunsanmi.

“Every early-down sack creates another third-and-long, and that’s how even the best third-down offense can run out of answers,” McElroy said, noting Cignetti is 27-1 as an FBS head coach when his team records four or more sacks.

USC’s defense is the bigger worry. The Trojans rank 109th nationally in adjusted EPA per play allowed, according to Game on Paper, and McElroy expects Indiana’s play-action shots to Becker and Nick Marsh to test their safeties if the quarterback’s arm holds up.

Lincoln Riley has prepared for both possibilities. “They’re both very capable of running their offense,” Riley said of Hoover and Wilson.

Even so, McElroy doesn’t see Indiana winning by more than a touchdown. “A margin of more than a touchdown is hard for me to get behind when one offense is struggling to run and the other can’t count on the quarterback’s arm,” he said.

USC and Indiana kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.