The LSU Tigers controlled their showdown with Texas for the better part of four quarters inside a deafening Tiger Stadium. Yet, they walked away with nothing to show for it. Arch Manning’s four-yard touchdown pass to Raleek Brown with three seconds to play lifted the Longhorns to a 22-21 win, dropping Lane Kiffin’s Tigers to 6-4 (3-4 SEC) and, with it, out of realistic College Football Playoff contention.

Can LSU Still Reach the SEC Championship Game?

The gut-punch stings all the more because LSU largely outplayed its ranked opponent. The Tigers outgained Texas 366-273 and bested the Longhorns both rushing and passing, holding control of the game nearly all night.

LSU led 21-16 when No. 6 Texas took over with 2:19 remaining, but Manning, a New Orleans native enduring a rough homecoming until it mattered most, marched his team 68 yards for the game-winning score. It was the kind of agonizing finish that has shadowed a bumpy first season under Kiffin, whose much-anticipated return to Ole Miss earlier this fall also ended in a loss.

According to the PFN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), the defeat dropped LSU’s already-faint chances of reaching the SEC Championship Game to effectively 0%.

At 3-4 in league play, with a stack of one- and two-loss SEC teams sitting well ahead of them, the Tigers have no realistic path back to Atlanta. Even before Saturday, a trip to the title game was a long shot; now it’s off the board entirely.

Remaining LSU Football Schedule

• at Tennessee Volunteers

• at Arkansas Razorbacks

Both of LSU’s final two games are on the road, and both now carry far lower stakes than Kiffin envisioned when the year began. A win in Knoxville over a ranked Tennessee squad would at least hand LSU a signature result to salvage from the stretch run.

What are LSU’s College Football Playoff Chances?

The FPM now lists LSU’s playoff chances at 0.0%, a stark fall from the 5.2% the Tigers carried into the night, and a world away from the 11.2% that a win would have preserved.

With a fourth loss on the résumé, LSU no longer has the profile or the margin to force its way into the 12-team field, whether as a conference champion or an at-large pick. For a program that opened the Kiffin era chasing a playoff berth, that’s more than disappointing.

What’s left is a matter of pride and positioning. LSU can still reach a respectable bowl and play spoiler down the stretch, and a strong finish would hand Kiffin some momentum into a pivotal offseason. But the goal that defined this year is now out of reach.