Michigan is set to host rival Michigan State on Saturday night and the Wolverines enter the contest as a 14.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. And for good reason. The Wolverines, despite having one of the worst offenses in college football, have won five games and boast a top defense in college football.

Michigan State has two wins and has yet to beat a Power Four program this season. The Spartans have injury concerns and Michigan State struggles to move the ball — worse than Michigan. But it is a rivalry game after all, and as they say, you can throw the records out the window.

Concerning stat?

Michigan has taken down Michigan State in the four contests. Saturday will also mark the fifth night game in a row and it's relegated to Peacock, which shows you the state of the two programs. But that's aside the point right now.

According to ESPN's Billy Connelly, Michigan has struggled to cover against the Spartans and the game tends to be a lot closer than the oddsmakers believe.

"Since 2010, Michigan State has been an underdog 13 times against Michigan but has covered nine times and won outright five times. But Michigan has won the past four meetings by an average of 33-11..."

If analytics mean anything, ESPN's SP+ has the Wolverines winning the game by 17.1 points and the FPI has Michigan beating Michigan State by 11.2 points.

It means more than just betting purposes

Why is that stat important and potentially worrisome? Mainly because the Wolverines have struggled to put the Spartans away. Out of the 25 times the two teams have met since 2010, the Wolverines have been considered the better team in 13 of those contests being favored.

This year might not be so different. Michigan has yet to win any game, aside from Week 2 against UTEP, by more than one score. The Wolverines put up 28 points last week against Rutgers, and that was the most points Michigan has scored all season against a Power Four team.

The Spartans are reeling, but like we've seen many times before, a bad Michigan State team will pull out all the stops to win this game. Trick plays and things we haven't seen all season could be called when the Spartans take the field.

This would be the game for Michigan to put it all together and show that it has improved in every facet of the game, but numbers say this could be a 60-minute game of football down to the wire.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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