I understand that it may have been frustrating for Casey Mize that the Detroit Tigers did not offer him a contract extension and instead sent him to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline. His performance with San Diego was a total disappointment. After posting a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts with the Tigers and participating in his first All-Star Game, Mize fell to a 7.49 ERA in his 10 starts with the Padres.

He finished the 2026 season injured and couldn't pitch in the postseason. His loss of command was so significant that, even if he had been healthy, I don’t think San Diego would have placed much confidence in him. The dominant Mize we saw in Detroit did not appear again. After allowing just five home runs and recording a .593 OPS with the Tigers, Mize saw his SO/BB rate drop from 4.47 to 1.32 and allowed 13 home runs in just 44 ⅔ innings, which drove his opponents’ OPS up to .979.

Except for his split-finger, all his other pitches lost their edge. His slider and sinker, two of his best weapons, were punished during his time with the Padres. His slider’s strikeout rate fell from 23.6% to 2.6%, while opponents’ batting average rose from .198 to .371. Something similar happened with the sinker, which became a vulnerable pitch: opponents’ slugging percentage skyrocketed from .359 to 1.176.

Will a Mize Return to Detroit Be Possible?

Technically, it is possible. Although the Tigers could reconsider their previous decision, I don’t think bringing Mize back is a priority this offseason. That said, two interesting details emerge. First, Mize ended his season with the Padres after suffering an injury that sent him to the injured list on September 26.

There was not much discussion about his progress or whether any physical issue influenced the drop in his velocity and the regression in his performance. But, assuming he is healthy and has no impediment to entering free agency, the big question is which team will take a risk on him and trust he can regain his command. His pedigree and the best version of Mize we saw did not disappear with his time with the Padres, but the concern left by his loss of command during a stretch in which he pitched under much more pressure than in Detroit is unavoidable.

In a way, this opens up two scenarios we cannot leave aside. On one hand, Detroit was a place where Mize felt comfortable from the beginning of his career in 2020 and where he became an elite pitcher in the rotation. On the other hand, we have to consider what kind of offer he will receive in free agency, since probably no team will want to risk offering him a contract of more than one year without making sure he can regain his command.

So, although it may seem like an uncomfortable option, especially for Mize, would accepting a one-year offer to return to Detroit and regain his status be something to dismiss? Would he be willing to return, or did the fact that he was not offered an extension and was traded at the deadline mark the end of his time with the Tigers?

I think a return would be beneficial for both sides. However, if it doesn’t happen, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Mize doesn’t receive offers for more than one year now that he is a free agent.