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For the third straight week, the Chicago Bears will be playing in a primetime slot against a defense that is loaded with firepower. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be 3-5, but the Bears can't afford to take them lightly in this Sunday night matchup. Head coach Todd Bowles is a respected defensive mind and star defensive tackle Vita Vea can wreck even the best game plans.
That said, the Bucs have not faced an offense as dangerous as Chicago's since the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. Since Caleb Williams' Week 6 return from injury, the Bears are averaging 32 points per game and are 3-0, including wins against each of last year's Super Bowl teams. It's clear that Williams has taken the long-awaited Year 3 leap to be a superstar quarterback, and that makes the Bears a threat to race past even the toughest defenses.
A win tonight will put the Bears at 7-2 as they enter their bye week, which would be their strongest start to a season since 2012. To get there, they're going to need strong contributions from some key playmakers. With that in mind, let's make some stat predictions.
As I mentioned in my Week 9 keys to victory, the Bears are likely going to have to lean on Williams and their passing game. Kyle Monangai will miss his fifth straight game, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport, and I wouldn't expect D'Andre Swift to fare much better than he did last week when he averaged less than three yards per carry against the Seattle Seahawks.
However, as aforementioned, Williams has proven himself to be a superstar quarterback. He's more than capable of carrying the offense on his shoulders and delivering a big game. To that end, I have Williams throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns while completing over 70% of his passes.
Baker Mayfield has attempted just 14 total passes in his two games since returning from the significant injury he suffered against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, and his thumb may still not be fully healthy yet. That makes this a prime opportunity for Chicago's secondary to feast against a quarterback who has thrown double-digit interceptions in each of the last three seasons.
I expect the Bears to take an early lead in this contest, which will force the Bucs to throw the ball more than they'd like. And with big Jeffery Simmons wreaking havoc in the trenches, Mayfield will attempt several ill-advised throws that end up in the hands of a Bears' defensive back.
Bucky Irving has been on a heater over the last month, rushing for over 100 yards in three of his last four games. But this matchup is a bad one for him. Since their blockbuster trade for Jeffery Simmons, Chicago's defensive front has proven to be a force to be reckoned with. But that's not all. Chicago's offense also has the firepower to break open an early lead, which will force Irving to the sidelines.
He'll still get himself a first-half touchdown, but I expect Irving to be a non-factor through most of this game, both due to Chicago's defensive efforts and their explosive offense.
It took a couple of years, but Caleb Williams' draft day text to Tory Taylor that he won't have to punt much with the Bears has finally proven true, and we'll see that again on Sunday night. He's attempted just 22 punts on the season so far, and against Tampa Bay, I predict he'll only see the field once.
That's not to say that the Bears will score on every other drive. I do think that the Bears will attempt and fail at least one fourth-down conversion. But that won't stop them from putting up over 30 points anyway.