Last year around this time, the Patriots were about halfway through an unexpected 10-game winning streak. A look around the AFC -- where expected top dogs like the Chiefs and Bengals were floundering, and where the Bills were within reach in the East -- led to the realization that the conference was wide open. A real playoff run and possibly even a trip to Super Bowl LX was certainly on the table.

A year later, we're looking at a different picture.

The Bills, outside of their Week 4 blip vs. the Patriots, look basically unbeatable. The Jaguars looked Super Bowl-ready even before they made some key additions via trade. The Broncos look every bit as potent as last season, the Chiefs have picked themselves off the mat and still have the scariest coach-QB combo come playoff time, and Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level for the 6-2 Bengals.

The AFC doesn't seem so wide open anymore.

The Patriots certainly aren't riding a 10-game winning streak any time soon.

And all of the good fortune the Patriots enjoyed last year in regard to injuries has come back around the other way this year, as the team seemingly can't go even one week without losing another starter.

So now, coming off the team's most embarrassing loss since the Jerod Mayo era, some people may be inclined to make the case that when the Patriots board their flight for Munich this week, they'll be heading into must-win territory.

That isn't quite the case ... but it's close.

The Outlook

It's never safe to generalize, but expectations for the Patriots' season widely fell in the range of nine to 11 wins. Some pessimists and optimists surely existed on the lower and higher ends, but with a preseason win total bet of 10.5, it's fair to say that the consensus landed in that 10 or 11-win zone, mostly due to the difficult schedule facing the Patriots.

That was, of course, before the Patriots lost their No. 1 receiver, their No. 2 receiver, their two starting guards, their two top backup guards, their No. 3 receiver (for four weeks), their No. 2 cornerback (for half the year), their No. 2 running back (indefinitely), and now their No. 1 running back.

The team has gotten some injured players and will welcome more returns as the year goes on, but they're also likely to continue suffering more injuries, given the nature of the sport and the reality that multiple players have been powering through their own injuries in order to not further the team's shorthandedness. (See Hunter Henry on Sunday for the most obvious instance.)

Taken in conjunction with some backsliding from Drake Maye and a defense that cannot force turnovers, the team is now 5-4. The vision of the Patriots finishing the year at 10-7 looks more and more unlikely as the season wears on. Still, it's possible, so here's really the only way it can be done.

Current AFC East Record: 3-0
Needed AFC East Record: 5-1

As stated earlier, the Patriots did beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this year. That was massive. It's technically possible for the Patriots to sweep the Bills this year, but a split against arguably the AFC's best team feels like a win in and of itself.

As for the rest of the division, the Patriots are halfway to doing what's necessary against the Jets and Dolphins. Anything less than a 4-0 record against two of the most dreadful teams out there would be a massive blow to the Patriots' potential to reach double digits in wins.

The Patriots visit the Jets on Dec. 27, and they'll host the Dolphins in Week 18. Those figure to be absolutely critical games to the Patriots' playoff chances.

Current NFC North Record: 0-2
Needed NFC North Record: 2-2

That Packers team that waltzed into Foxboro and blew the doors off the Patriots on Sunday? They're 6-3 ... and in last place in the NFC North.

Clearly, that is without question the best division in football this year, which makes it unfortunate timing that the Patriots are paired up with them in 2026.

Still, if the Patriots are what they're supposed to be -- that is, a good NFL team -- then it shouldn't be unreasonable to expect them to go .500 against other good teams.

Thus far, though, they're 0-2.

That's where the sting of Sunday's no-show is really felt, as the Patriots now have to fly to Germany having lost at least two more starters to injury to face a 6-2 Lions team that's won four straight games. Winning this game will be a challenge for the Patriots, to put it mildly ... though that aforementioned win in Buffalo did come a week after a similar shellacking against the Jaguars. Perhaps this Patriots team responds well to such reality checks.

The Patriots will finish out their NFC North competition when they host the Vikings on a Thursday night in Week 14. As the whole world saw on Monday night, the Vikings' quarterback situation is dire, so that game will presumably be winnable for New England, despite the overwhelming nature of Brian Flores' defense. However, if the Vikings can swing a deal for a QB before the deadline, perhaps that picture changes.

Back to this week, though: Can the Patriots get to 10 wins if they lose to the Lions and drop to 5-5 heading into their bye week? Maybe, but it'll be a whole lot smoother if they can make it 6-4 by Sunday afternoon stateside. The next section will explain why.

Needed 'Hard Games' Record: 1-2

For lack of better teams, the Patriots will have three easy games and four hard games after their bye week. Two of those easy games -- the late-season Jets and Dolphins matchups -- have been mentioned already. The other is in L.A., against the Chargers, in Week 12. The 0-8 Chargers are so dreadful that the football world may already be beyond the point of thinking they'll snap out of it at some point.

There's no acceptable reason for the Patriots to lose any of those three games. That gets them to eight wins.

The more difficult post-bye games remaining are vs. Buffalo in Week 13, vs. Minnesota on a Thursday night in Week 14, at the Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 15, and home vs. Denver in Week 17. We'll leave the Minnesota game to the side and keep it in the NFC North bucket for now.

Those three games -- vs. the 7-1 Bills, at the undefeated-at-home, 6-2 Chiefs, vs. the 7-2 Broncos -- are a problem for New England. Could they win two of them? Sure. Anything is possible. Kevin Garnett said so.

But realistically, given everything we've witnessed from this year's Patriots team, a 1-2 record in those games feels like a best-case scenario.

They already got the Bills once, and Buffalo's since beaten the Rams, Raiders, Ravens and Vikings by a combined score of 129-80. The Patriots haven't won both Bills matchups in a season since Tom Brady was their quarterback. A win there feels particularly unlikely.

The Chiefs have outscored opponents 121-56 at home this year, and walking into Arrowhead for a prime-time December game is a losing proposition for most NFL teams.

That leaves the Broncos game at home in Week 17 as the most "winnable" game of the three. That one feels doable, but the confidence rate in a Patriots win there can't hover much higher than about 50 percent.

The Final Math For The Path

Take it all together, and you've got a Patriots team that is currently 5-4. To get to 10 wins, they'll need to:

• Go 1-1 in their remaining games against the NFC North (six total wins)
• Beat the three inferior teams remaining on their schedule (nine total wins)
• Go 1-2 in the three hardest games left on their schedule (10 total wins)

There's some wiggle room there. If they can beat the Lions and Vikings, then perhaps there's less stress in the Buffalo/Kansas City/Denver department. (You may have to start factoring in conference record for playoff tiebreakers but we are not there just yet. Save that for December.)

At the same time, the Patriots may not be immune from a slip-up, as they nearly let one get away from them in Miami in Week 8. There can simply be no margin for error in the games against the Jets, Dolphins and Chargers (combined record: 3-22), as a loss to any of those teams would necessitate an extra win in the games against the Lions, Vikings, Bills, Chiefs and Broncos (combined record: 32-9).

That particular perspective does help suppress any "must-win" stamps being placed on this game vs. the Lions in Munich. But if the limping Patriots can find a way to emerge victorious on Sunday, the path to 10 wins and, likely, a playoff berth does look to be a whole lot more attainable.