With matchday four of the Champions League league phase now over, only four games remain before the knockout stage.

While the top eight secure a direct place in the round of 16, teams placed ninth to 24th must play two extra matches to qualify via the play-offs. Against this backdrop, European clubs are doing the maths to avoid an early exit from the UEFA tournament.

Since the change of format, the Champions League has had two cut-off marks. In the last two editions, the team in eighth place finished the league phase on 16 points. Those in 24th place collected 11 points in 2024-25 and nine points in 2025-26, and both seasons were decided by the tiebreaker (goal difference).

Given this history, Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan, Manchester United, Napoli and Roma cannot afford to slip up if they want to stay alive in the Champions League. Here is why these five clubs can no longer afford to keep stumbling.

Atletico Madrid

Although they are in the battle for the La Liga lead, Atletico Madrid are having a disappointing Champions League campaign. It is true that defeats to Liverpool and Bayern Munich are not unusual, but the red cards against Manchester United and Stuttgart affected the game plan of Diego Simeone.

For the final stretch of the league phase, Atletico Madrid will face four direct rivals for a play-off place, and need to collect at least five points to reach the minimum of the historical cut-off mark. Below are the club’s remaining Champions League fixtures.

Viking (22nd place) - Metropolitano, on 25 November;
PSV (24th place) - Philips Stadion, on 9 December;
Bodo/Glimt (25th place) - Asomyra Stadion, on 19 January;
Fenerbahce (19th place) - Metropolitano, on 27 January.

Inter Milan

Serie A champions in 2025-26 and favourites to win back-to-back Italian titles, Inter Milan began the main European competition with a scare.

Individual errors contributed to the away defeat to Real Madrid, but Club Brugge’s 4-3 win at San Siro set off alarm bells. Cristian Chivu’s response came with two wins over Shakhtar Donetsk (with one player fewer) and Feyenoord, in the Netherlands.

The problem is that, of the four remaining Champions League matches, Inter Milan play three rivals who are above them in the table, including a top-eight side. Inter Milan need at least three points to stay alive in the UEFA tournament and play the play-offs before the round of 16.

Stuttgart (14th place) - San Siro, on 25 November;
Borussia Dortmund (12th place) - Signal Iduna Park, on 9 December;
Liverpool (8th place) - San Siro, on 19 January;
Slovan Bratislava (36th place) - Tehelne Pole Stadion, on 27 January.

Manchester United

On the edge of the Premier League relegation zone, Manchester United are going through another moment of crisis.

Despite starting the Champions League with a heavy win over Sabah, defeats to Atletico Madrid and Como fuelled doubts over manager Michael Carrick, who managed to react with an unlikely comeback win over Roma.

Not so lucky in the draw, Manchester United now face two contenders for a direct place in the round of 16, as well as two others who are aiming for the play-offs. With the need to collect at least three more points, Manchester United will also have to overcome the mistrust that is affecting the internal atmosphere.

Sporting (10th place) - Estadio Jose Alvalade, on 25 November;
RB Leipzig (30th place) - Old Trafford, on 8 December;
Bayern Munich (13th place) - Old Trafford, on 20 January;
Villarreal (28th place) - Estadio de la Ceramica, on 27 January.

Napoli

Current Serie A runners-up, Napoli are having a 2026-27 season well below expectations.

More than the modest 8th place in the league, manager Massimiliano Allegri has only managed to beat Bodo/Glimt in dramatic fashion, accumulating defeats to Arsenal, Villarreal and Porto in the Champions League, the last of them a thrashing.

Eliminated in the league phase of the last edition of the UEFA tournament, Napoli are flirting with another continental embarrassment. To avoid this disaster, the club need at least six points against three rivals who are ahead of them in the table, two of whom are fighting for a direct place in the round of 16.

Manchester City (7th place) - Etihad Stadium, on 24 November;
Club Brugge (9th place) - Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, on 8 December;
Sabah (31st place) - Baki Olimpiya Stadionu, on 20 January;
Viking (22nd place) - Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, on 27 January.

Roma

One of the sensations of the season and contenders for the scudetto, Roma are third in Serie A and promised a return to the Champions League in great style.

But, with the exception of the thrashing of Slovan Bratislava, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have been disappointing: a draw with Fenerbahce and defeats to Real Madrid and Manchester United, both of them comebacks by their opponents.

Even with interesting performances, Roma have already used up their margin for error and will have to chase lost ground against the current two-time European champions and one of the candidates for the top eight. With two more accessible opponents, Roma know they need at least five points to avoid dropping out in the league phase.

Paris Saint-Germain (1st place) - Parc des Princes, on 25 November;
Sporting (10th place) - Stadio Olimpico, on 8 December;
AEK (29th place) - Allwyn Arena, on 19 January;
Lille (35th place) - Stadio Olimpico, on 27 January.