Just over a month has passed since England inflicted Croatia's heaviest-ever defeat, thumping Slaven Bilic's side 7-0 in Rijeka in the Nations League.

And these familiar foes will be reunited at Wembley Stadium on Thursday, with the Three Lions only needing a point to mathematically confirm their place in the quarter-finals. 

Given the heavy nature of Croatia's defeat in the reverse fixture, they are realistically only playing for pride – and indeed, for revenge.

It will be a memorable night for Harry Kane as he adds England's all-time appearance record to the goalscoring mark he has held since 2023, and, for the first time in almost two decades, two brothers could play alongside one another for the Three Lions.

Here, we dive into the best Opta insights to provide our data-powered preview for the game.

The week ahead of our #ThreeLions  https://t.co/bGErNEOQdM

— England (@England) November 7, 2026

What's expected?   

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given England so heavily beat Croatia in early October, the Opta supercomputer firmly favours the hosts.

The Three Lions are assigned a 67.2% chance of taking all three points, while Croatia's win probability stands at 14.8%, and the remaining 18% of simulations saw the points shared. 

England and Croatia should know each other inside out by now, with this being their third meeting in the space of five months.

Prior to their 7-0 away win, Thomas Tuchel's side also triumphed 4-2 in their group-stage opener at the World Cup, extending England's winning streak against Croatia to four games.

That is as many victories as they managed in the first nine head-to-head meetings between the teams (W4 D2 L3).

Croatia have only won one of their five previous away games against England (D1 L3), too though that success was a significant one.

They memorably triumphed 3-2 at Wembley in November 2007, with that victory denying England a place at Euro 2008 and leading to the dismissal of Steve McClaren. 

Another landmark for England legend Kane

It has been a productive few weeks for Kane, to say the least.

Peter Shilton's message to Harry Kane as the #ThreeLions captain equals his all-time caps record 

— England (@England) October 6, 2026

After becoming England's first Ballon d'Or winner since Michael Owen in 2001, he is set to break a long-standing Three Lions record.

Should Kane appear on Thursday, he will become England's all-time leading appearance-maker, with his 126th cap taking him beyond Peter Shilton's mark of 125 outright.

And, given the free-scoring form the Three Lions have displayed lately, it would be no surprise if Kane marked the occasion with a goal or two.

Indeed, Kane has scored 13 goals for his country in 2026, giving him a chance to break England's calendar-year record of 16, which he himself set in 2021. 

Four of Kane's international goals in 2026 have come as braces against Croatia, too – No England player has ever scored two or more goals in three straight matches against a single opponent. 

Kane also scored twice against Czechia in England's most recent game, a 3-0 victory on October 6, so he could become the first player to score twice in three straight matches for the Three Lions since March 2009, when Wayne Rooney did so.

5 – Harry Kane is just the fifth player to win both the Ballon d'Or and European Golden Shoe in the same season after Lionel Messi (3), Cristiano Ronaldo (2), Ronaldo and Gerd Müller. Famous. https://t.co/ulc5jzG7vh

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 27, 2026

As a team, England have enjoyed one of their most prolific years in 2026, plundering 39 goals in 16 matches across all competitions – they have only scored more in a single calendar year in 2021 (52). 

They have scored 14 goals in their four Nations League fixtures this campaign, their best goals-per-game ratio (3.5) in any of the competition's five editions. 

While Tuchel still has bridges to build with sections of the England fanbase, following their meek semi-final surrender to Argentina at the World Cup, the Three Lions' 20 victories since he took the reins are the most of any European nation, and only Belgium have matched their 65 goals. Tuchel has brought up 20 wins in fewer games than any other coach in England's history (26).

There is sure to be a feel-good factor as those at Wembley witness Kane make history, and another statement victory over Croatia would keep England in with a chance of topping the group, ahead of Sunday's visit to Spain.

Tuchel is not worry-free, though. He will likely have to rely on a new-look defence, with first-choice centre-backs Ezri Konsa and Marc Guehi both unavailable. Dan Burn and James Hill have been called up as cover.

Croatia could ensure worst-ever run

Given Croatia's recent form, England will be supremely confident of maintaining their strong record against them.

Bilic's team have lost their last three games, suffering two defeats to Spain either side of their humiliating loss to England, conceding a combined 13 goals in those matches.

They have never lost four games in a row in their history as an independent nation, and their three defeats in four games since Bilic returned to the job are as many as they suffered in the first 34 matches of his first stint (W24 D7 L3).

Croatia's seven defeats and 28 goals conceded in 2026 are both their worst-ever figures in a single calendar year, having also underwhelmed at the World Cup, as they went out to Portugal in the round of 32.

Their overall goal difference this year stands at -13 (15 goals scored, 28 conceded), which is also their worst in a single year.

Those figures are a far cry even from 2025, when they netted 22 more goals than they conceded (28 for, six against), their second-best difference in a single year.

One of the best moments of Bilic's managerial career came at Wembley 19 years ago, but the same venue could now be the stage for a piece of unwanted Croatian football history.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

England – Jobe Bellingham

In addition to Kane breaking Shilton's appearance record, there could be another moment for England's fans to savour.

Indeed, Borussia Dortmund midfielder Jobe Bellingham has earned his first senior call-up and could now appear alongside Real Madrid superstar Jude Bellingham, his older brother. 

If that occurs, they would be the first pair of siblings to share the pitch for England since Gary Neville and Phil Neville, in a 1-0 defeat to Spain in 2007.

From our #YoungLions to the #ThreeLions, Jobe Bellingham  Congratulations on your very first senior international call-up!  https://t.co/FmNrr0jiFo

— England (@England) November 6, 2026

Croatia – Marin Soticek

Hajduk Split duo Simun Hrgovic and Soticek are among four uncapped players in Croatia's squad, and with little on the line, Bilic could take the opportunity to experiment.  

Soticek has attempted the second-most dribbles (52) and completed the third-most (22) among all players in the Croatian top flight this season.