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We’re still two weeks away from the selection committee gathering in Dallas to begin the process of ranking College Football Playoff contenders, but their job got slightly easier after the weekend where carnage once again hit many conference races. Throw in some damaging at-large results and the list of teams who saw their postseason hopes extinguished was a lengthy one.
With all that in mind, it’s time to examine just what the impact of all those results from the past weekend will have by entering The Eliminator—where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. Here’s where the field stands after Week 8.
Zero teams (0% of the bracket)
37 teams, 27% of FBS
101 teams, 73% of FBS
The ACC race is basically down to Miami, Wake Forest and a series of programs still holding out hope of winning enough tiebreakers to make it to Charlotte for the conference championship game. That’s why Clemson and Duke are still technically alive for the CFP even as it looks like the product they are putting on the field is nowhere close to being that caliber.
It was a brutal weekend in the ACC for teams trying to keep hope alive as the Tar Heels were denied in overtime amid an inexplicable loss to Syracuse, Pitt looks like a shell of itself from earlier in the season thanks to its quarterback play and Virginia really has not been the same since losing to Duke (as in last season, not just this one).
Few leagues had a worse weekend than the Big 12, which saw a slew of programs eliminated from making it to Arlington, Texas, for the league title game and several damaging losses that suddenly put the ability to get two teams into the field in doubt. That naturally would include UCF’s remarkable win over BYU, but Texas Tech’s first loss of the season likely means the Red Raiders need to run the table.
It was a rough weekend in Waco, Texas, as the Bears went from potentially alive in the conference race to fully out of it and firing their head coach following a loss to Kansas. Meanwhile, Houston sure seems like one of the best two-loss programs in the country but falling to Utah means it is on the wrong side of too many tiebreakers and will not come close to notching the number of Top 25 wins to garner any sort of at-large consideration. K-State remains in a bit of a rebuilding mode so it’s notable it stayed alive this long, but that inexcusable loss to a series of backup quarterbacks against Arizona State proved to be the final straw.
Though it’s debatable just how many true national title contenders the Big Ten has this season, there’s clearly some much improved depth at the top of the league. Case in point are the potential playoff paths for Wisconsin, Minnesota and Northwestern, to say nothing of undefeated UCLA or what might be the new favorite to win the Big Ten in reigning champion Indiana.
Just think back two months ago and remember all the positive feelings swirling around in Ann Arbor, Mich., and Eugene, Ore., where the latter had a national title favorite and the former was enjoying an experienced coaching staff finally running the show. Now those are just distant memories following another slate of losses that take the Ducks and Wolverines out of the CFP race, with some big questions sure to be lobbed in the direction of their head coaches over their coordinator hires this offseason and how they’ve spoiled some rather expensive rosters that were supposed to make the bracket.
It was a damaging Saturday for a number of teams at-large hopes but not quite fatal enough to fully see them on the chopping block of The Eliminator. That should change in the next two weeks as we get a better sense as to if Tennessee and Florida can remain in the thick of the CFP conversation if they’re able to get big wins against their regional rivals.
That’s life in the SEC where you can go from getting a major win over the top-ranked team one weekend and then finding yourself hung over and out of the CFP race the next. Such was the case for Auburn as it fell below .500 in the league and unfortunately true for Mississippi State, too, as it simply hasn’t looked the same since dynamic quarterback Kamario Taylor got hurt a few weeks ago.
On the bright side, the Irish were off over the weekend and didn’t fall prey to getting upset like many of the other CFP contenders did. The downside is their résumé took yet another hit with BYU losing on the road to further emphasize that this campaign will pretty much come down to beating Miami or not next month.
If the American is going to truly snag the Group of 6 bid, their best bet will likely remain UTSA winning out after the recent slide the Memphis has had on the field with a loss and another near-loss. North Texas remains lingering in the conversation thanks to its high-powered offense and has a notable trip coming up to play the Roadrunners next month.
All good things must come to an end and that’s the case for the slim hopes the Broncos had to make the playoff after their loss to Toledo. Their play had hinted that a slip-up in conference play was probably coming and for all their valiant effort in coming back against Toledo, they just couldn’t secure the win at the Glass Bowl. That also puts pressure on Western Michigan to run the table to ensure a trip back to Detroit if they want to defend their MAC title.
As much as Jason Eck is known for having a creative offense, it’s been his defense at New Mexico which has vaulted the team to the top of the MWC standings and played a pivotal role in getting past the Bison in the biggest game Albuquerque has ever seen in ages. They probably still need to win out and hope Boise State trips up to make the CFP, but this is a group that should get strong consideration for a spot in the committee’s first Top 25.
It was a tough weekend for both of these teams in close losses that finally put their playoff hopes out of reach. While they theoretically remain alive for a MWC title, that’s about the best they can hope for this season.
The Broncos struggled a bit early in their first trip to the Palouse as a Pac-12 member but they managed to get past Washington State easily enough to remain the front-runner for the Group of 6 bid. They may not have even had the best weekend in the league though, with the Beavers getting the great news that their star wideout would be re-signing with the program for 2027 ahead of a key stretch of games that will help shape their own postseason destination.
Down go the Dukes on the road as Billy Napier is once again tripped up by Appalachian State—one of the few schools he’s got a checkered history with in the Sun Belt. That doesn’t completely ruin their chances of making the CFP, of course, but their best path would have been to be undefeated given how far behind they were in several metrics compared to Boise State and New Mexico when it comes to their pursuit of back-to-back playoff bids.
PODCAST: Listen to Sports Illustrated’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, hosted by Pat Forde, on Apple and. Watch the show on SI’s college YouTube channel or on SI TV.
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