The NASCAR Cup Series arrives at the most unpredictable track on the circuit with the Chase for the championship suddenly wide open.

After a 34th at Phoenix Raceway, Kyle Larson is clinging to a five-point lead over Christopher Bell entering Sunday’s race at Talladega Superspeedway on NBC (2 p.m. ET). There are five more drivers (Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick) within 56 points of Larson with three races left in the season (each has a maximum of 76 available points).

Larson started the Chase, the 10-race run to determine the title among 16 eligible drivers, with two wins and an unprecedented average finish of 2.83 in the first six races. But the defending Cup Series champion lost 44 points off the margin at Phoenix, where he crashed and posted his worst driver rating this season.

Whether Larson can rebound and steady his quest for a third title amid the typical chaos of Talladega, a 2.66-mile oval known for massive crashes and wild endings, will be the major focus in Sunday’s 500-mile race. The Hendrick Motorsports star has struggled at Talladega with only five top-10 finishes in 23 starts (though two of his three top fives there have come in the last four races).

On the drafting tracks of Talladega, Atlanta and Daytona, Larson has been miserable this season with an average finish of 30.6 that is worst among full-time Cup drivers. He has 58 career drafting starts without a win, the longest active drought in Cup.

Here are other storylines to watch at Talladega:

Keep an eye on the last lap

In the April 26 race, Carson Hocevar became the third consecutive driver to win at Talladega on a last-lap pass — a familiar occurrence on drafting tracks.

The final pass for the lead happened on the last lap in 10 of the past 11 races at Talladega, Daytona and Atlanta, and it’s usually made by drivers who bided their time earlier in the race.

The past 11 winners at Talladega have led for 19 laps or fewer, and it’s been six years since the driver who led the most laps reached victory lane.

Another new face in victory lane?

Talladega is in the midst of its longest stretch without a repeat winner since its opening 57 years ago.

Since Denny Hamlin’s victory at Talladega on Oct. 4, 2020, 11 different winners in a row have celebrated at the track in Alabama: Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe and Hocevar.

Joey Logano, who has three wins at Talladega, would be a prime candidate to keep the streak alive, but it could also be a newbie. Hocevar was the 13th first-time Cup winner at Talladega, the most among tracks on the Cup circuit.

Denny Hamlin’s Chase disappointment

Hamlin started the Chase as the top seed after a strong second-half close to the regular season.

But his latest bid for his first championship in 21 seasons has been littered with the same heartbreak that has plagued a career as the best Cup driver without a title in history. His 28th at Phoenix, because of a flat tire and speeding penalty, ended a record 31-race streak of lead-lap finishes.

“Every Monday morning, I’m mentally drained in the Cup Series,” Hamlin, who has only two top fives in seven Chase races, said on his podcast this week. “My fun metter is pegged to the absolute fullest. Monday mornings are the worst. ... At this point, I feel like the racing gods are picking on me.”

Aerodynamic adjustments

NASCAR and its drivers were pleased by the impact of shorter spoilers (from 7 to 4 inches) and detuned engines (45 less horsepower) in the most recent drafting race at Daytona, so there’ll be an extra step at Talladega.

The spoiler will be cut to 3.5 inches, a half-inch reduction that is intended to enhance the ability of a slingshot pass by pulling out of line in the draft.

When paired with adjustments to the stage lengths for Sunday (the first segement has been lengthened to 98 laps, and the final two stages are 45 laps apiece), the impact could be less an emphasis on the fuel-mileage strategies that have come to dominate drafting tracks.

Swift service in the pits

If there is a premium on pit stops at Talladega, Chase Briscoe will have the edge.

The No. 19 pit crew has easily been the best in the Cup Series, having gained 25 spots in the pits over the past four races (including two wins) while notching 16 races in a row without a mistake.

Larson’s team has also been stellar on pit stops, retaining positions for the No. 5 Chevrolet at a rate of 88%.

How to watch 2026 Chase race at Talladega

NBC will have the broadcast on Sunday, Oct. 25, starting with a prerace show at 1:30 p.m. ET. The green flag is scheduled to wave shortly after 2 p.m.