After the Toronto Raptors finished last season with a 46-36 record, landing them the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, there doesn’t seem to be much confidence that they’ll take a leap forward. At least, from a win total standpoint.

Even after the injection of Kawhi Leonard into their lineup, the Toronto Raptors’ regular season win total is projected at 46.5 wins. This total puts them behind the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference projections. The Miami Heat are also set at 46.5 wins, which would have the Raptors pinned on the cusp of the play-in tournament. This of course is all dependent on whether they go over 46.5 wins or under.

It seems to be a recurring theme where the public is a little lower on the Raptors as some might expect. Last year the Toronto Raptors were projected at 39.5 wins, which was a benchmark that they sailed past.

As we head into the regular season, we ask ourselves if the Raptors have what it takes to surpass expectations and become a 50-win team, once again.

Health Will Tell the Tale of the Raptors’ Success This Season

As is the case for every team in this league, the Raptors need to stay as healthy as possible if they want to have a chance at clearing last year’s win total. Even though the Raptors lost starters like Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett for significant amounts of time over the course of the season, the Raptors were one of the healthier teams last year.

According to Sportrac, the Raptors were one of the top five healthiest teams in the league, with a total cash hit from injured players sitting at $23.9 million, with 16 players factoring into that total.

The big question is can Kawhi Leonard stay healthy enough at the age of thirty-five. He’s coming off one of his healthiest and most productive seasons of his career last year where he logged 65 games.

The follow up to that is how the Raptors will manage his in-season workload compared to the playoffs. Many will remember the ‘load-management’ approach introduced by the medical staff during the championship run back in 2018-19. During that season, Leonard played a total of 60 games and had enough left in the tank to fight through any lingering ailments, heading into the playoffs. 

Let’s not forget, the Raptors’ medical staff were able to help Brandon Ingram return to All-Star form last season. Ingram played 77 total games before sustaining a heel injury in the first round of the playoffs. That was his healthiest season since his rookie campaign back in 2016-17. With this track record, there needs to be belief that the Kawhi Leonard-Alex McKechnie connection will yield positive results in the later stages of his career.

Prediction: 50-32 (4th seed)

We all remember the log-jam of teams that occupied the middle-of-the-pack in the Eastern Conference last season. Only three games separated the 5th seed and the 10th seed in the east playoff race and the Raptors found themselves at the top of that pile.

A similar result this season could very well be the case. A 50-win season last year would have likely found the Raptors locked into the 5th seed. This year, it might be enough to land them home court advantage in the playoffs. This is contingent on a team like the Detroit Pistons or the Boston Celtics experiencing a little bit of a regression.

Regardless, even in a loaded and competitive Eastern Conference, a 46-win total seems attainable for this Raptors squad. With the addition of Kawhi Leonard, it’s hard to imagine that his impact wouldn’t result in at least four more wins than last season.