It’s been a month since we were able to forecast what Lamar Jackson was about to do to an NFL defense.

Man, have we missed doing the research and, especially, watching him play. We were quite on point about what to expect from him in each of the first four games, and unfortunately Jackson suffered a high-ankle sprain at the end of the first half in Week 4 and the Ravens spiraled without him (7-14 all time when he can’t start). He covers up the repeated failures of general manager Eric DeCosta, and he is the genius – not rookie offensive coordinator Declan Doyle who has been getting exposed lately – and he has carved up the Bills in the regular season throughout his career and this Bills defense is particularly vulnerable.

So what do we expect on Sunday afternoon with Jackson just back from injury? Well, after being able to practice fully all week, and given the magnitude of this game (it’s must-win for Baltimore, one could argue), and given the Ravens’ proclivity for getting DeCosta-ed every week without him (blowing a double-digit lead in the second half and losing), I believe we are going to see the two-time MVP in do-it-all mode from the onset, whether that’s how Doyle is calling the game or not.

 Jackson knows best. And the Ravens best operate accordingly

There Will Be Points And Explosive Plays

The Ravens should get over their projected team total here and 30 points feels right (of course, that’s unlikely to be enough to win given the state of Baltimore’s defense, which needs changes before the trade deadline). Jackson has faced Buffalo five times in the regular season, and they average 33.2 points/game when he does. Buffalo will likely move the ball at will, so pressure will be on to score.

The Bills rely on a few pass rushers to get them off the field, but the secondary is among the worst in the NFL and we doubt they figured out how to overcome their talent limitations in the bye week. Doyle’s early-game scripts have been remarkable, Zay Flowers has been featured in those looks, and that won’t change against these defensive backs.

Flowers, despite missing time to injury and despite Jackson missing half the season, leads the NFL in receptions per game in the first half (27 in 6 games), and first-half receiving yards (486) at an astounding 18 yards/reception. Doyle will go after this group – Buffalo has allowed 26 passes of 20 yards or more (third in NFL despite already having their bye) and 15 of 25 yards or more (fifth-most) and they don’t have anyone who can handle Flowers with a two-way go in the slot.

Buffalo’s slot defense is even worse than Jesse Minter’s – which is saying something – ranking 28th in allowing a 122.2 rating and 9.2 yards/attempt (26th). We anticipate explosives with YAC and air yards and could see Jackson having a 50-yard pass and 25-yard run.

Ground Gains

Jackson tends to prove a point when people doubt his physical ability and playing against Josh Allen, the rare running QB who can rival him, tends to get Jackson’s wheels going, too. He’s never had a 20 yard run against Buffalo in the regular season but he tends to extend drives repeatedly with his legs.

Jackson averages 8 runs for 55 yards against these guys and he has at least six carries in every meeting with them in the regular season and this defense, while 15th in Defensive Expected Points Added vs QB runs, is allowing 5.5 yards/carry to them but has not really been tested in ways that Jackson’s can challenge them.

Doyle’s run scheme is failing with Derrick Henry starting to show his age at 32 – and leading the NFL in carries, while averaging just 3.9 yards/rush (gulp) – and this offensive line is not good. Jackson is going to have to scoot and make things happen himself outside the pocket to revive a dormant attack. We believe he will do just that and believe he has to run for 3-5 first downs and 65 or more yards if he’s going to keep pace with what Baltimore’s defense is going to yield to Allen (Ravens are 30th in EPA vs QB runs despite not facing anyone who really wants to run this season).

RedZone Revival

Jackson was a top five QB in the redzone before his injury. Doyle has defaulted to the failing run game without him – as he should with Snoop Huntley in charge – but that’s over now. And handing it off to Henry in short-yardage situations has been a disaster. Jackson will finish multiple drives with redzone TD passes and we suspect rookie tight ends Josh Cuevas and Matthew Hibner to get chances to hit pay dirt.

The Ravens need Jackson's genius most in the RZ, and there is no reason to doubt it.

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