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Michigan hits the road this weekend after falling 15-6 to rival Michigan State this past weekend. Sitting at 5-4, the Wolverines need one more win to go bowling, but with three ranked teams, that one win will be challenging to find.
The silver lining for Michigan is that it has a top-five defense. Obviously, the Wolverines' offense has been very poor this season, ranking No. 132 in the nation. Kyle Whittingham fired Jason Beck after nine games as the highest-paid offensive coordinator and now offensive line coach Jim Harding will lead the offense on an interim basis for the final three games.
If Michigan has any chance to beat Oregon, the Wolverines will need to rely on their defense to get the job done.
Through 10 weeks, Michigan has the No. 4 defense in the country. But CBS Sports analyst Tom Fornelli wonders just how accurate that is. He believes Indiana is the best offense Michigan has faced, which the Wolverines held them to 13 points, and it's a toss-up between Minnesota, Penn State, Oklahoma, and Iowa as the second-best offense the Wolverines have faced.
Oregon is going to be a different animal and Dan Lanning knows style points will count. Fornelli's lock of the week is taking Oregon's offense to score more than 24.5 points, per FanDuel.
"I've caught heat from Michigan fans in recent weeks for my skepticism about the team's defense. It's not that I think it's bad; it's that I believe their overall results are skewed by the fact they haven't played many good offenses. Indiana is the best offense they've seen, and as I discussed earlier, it's not like the Hoosiers have been out here lighting up the scoreboard every week.
"Seriously, the second-best offense Michigan has faced is either Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State or Oklahoma. I'll let you argue amongst yourselves which one you think is best.
"..But Dan Lanning is no fool. He knows that the rest of Oregon's schedule isn't great from a resume perspective. Simply winning games won't be enough. Oregon has to win and look really good doing it."
We get what Fornelli is trying to say, but with how the Wolverines' season has gone, Michigan's defense isn't getting enough credit. Michigan's team is Jekyll and Hyde. Again, the Wolverines' offense is ranked No. 132 and Michigan's defense is ranked No. 4.
Not only can't Michigan score points, but the Wolverines struggle moving the ball. Michigan's defense is on the field way more than it should be and the Wolverines only get worn out toward the end of the day. But, through 10 weeks, the Wolverines only allow their opponent to average 255.3 yards per game.
That's incredible when Michigan's offense is also ranked No. 89 in time of possession each game. The Wolverines' offense is on the field for a total of 29.22 minutes per game. Michigan's defense is on the field for more than half of the game on average, yet the Wolverines' defense remains stifling.
What will happen this weekend? Well, once again, it's hard to imagine Michigan's offense mustering much of anything, which means the Wolverines' defense will be on the field a lot. Oregon's offense is high powered and can score instantly. If Michigan's offense can't sustain drives, it will only wear down the Wolverines' defense.
Oregon can certainly score 25 or more points, but saying that's the 'lock of the week' isn't giving Jay Hill's unit the respect they deserve.