Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

We are exactly two weeks away from Thanksgiving, and we have a lot to be thankful for tonight because we get to watch the Washington Commanders! Sure, the Commanders are just 2-5-1, but they're one of the most exciting teams to watch. That's mainly because whenever they play, there's a 50% chance we'll see them totally implode late in the game, and nothing is more exciting than a late-game implosion. 

Another thing to be thankful for is our NFL midseason predictions, which we'll be unveiling today. Anyway, we've got a lot to cover, so let's get to the rundown. 

As always, here's your reminder to tell all of your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, just click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Commanders at Giants

The last time we saw these two teams on the field together was back in Week 5 when they played to a TIE. The Commanders should have won the game, but Jayden Daniels forgot to spike the ball on the final play of overtime, and the clock ran out with Washington in chip-shot field goal range. 

The Commanders (2-5-1) are currently sitting three games back of the Giants (5-2-1), and if they lose tonight, their season will be all but over. However, if the Commanders can pull off the upset, then they'd essentially be right back in the NFC East race. 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Commanders can win: When these two teams tied back in Week 5, the Commanders ran for over 200 yards, and that feels like the recipe for them to win tonight. The Giants are 0-2-1 this year when their opponent rushes for at least 125 yards, so if the Commanders can get things going on the ground, that should put them in a good spot to pull off the upset. In the last game, the Commanders had Jacory Croskey-Merritt, but he's now out for the season. This time around, Washington will have to lean on Rachaad White, Austin Ekeler and Jayden Daniels to keep their rushing attack moving. 
• Why the Giants can win: If you want to beat the Commanders, the easiest way to do that is to throw the ball on them. The Commanders are surrendering 240 passing yards per game, which is the third-most in the NFL this year. In the first meeting between these two teams, Jameis Winston threw for over 300 yards, but this time around J.J. McCarthy is expected to be under center in what will be his first home start for the Giants. McCarthy needs to get guys like Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely involved early and often. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE PROP I LIKE: Rachaad White OVER 54.5 rushing + receiving yards (-113 at DraftKings): The Commanders love to utilize White on the ground and through the air. White has gone over this total in three straight games and has gone over 60 yards in his past two games. With rain in the forecast, I think we'll see the Commanders running the ball a lot, and when they do pass, it will be short, safe throws, which could lead to a big night for White. 
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Drew Stevens OVER 4.5 points (-103 at DraftKings): The Commanders offense has been streaky this year, which has led to a lot of field goals for Stevens. Washington's rookie kicker has hit at least two field goals in six of his past seven games, and he's hit a total of six field goals over the past two weeks alone. He's also a perfect 12/12 on the year from inside 50, so I don't think Dan Quinn will hesitate to use him. Giants' kicker Dominic Zvada has also gone over 1.5 field goals in six of his past seven games, but I'm taking Stevens here because he has much better value (Zvada's odds on this exact same prop are at -147). 

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 14-22 (6-12 on kicker props and 8-10 on all other props). It's gotten ugly. I clearly need to re-evaluate my entire process, but first I'll have to re-evaluate how I re-evaluate things, just to make sure it's even worth my time. 

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Jared Dubin's pick: Giants 20-14 over Commanders
John Breech's pick: Commanders 24-17 over Giants
Jordan Dajani's pick: Commanders 21-20 over Giants
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Commanders 24-21 over Giants
Prisco's pick: Giants 23-14 over Commanders

If you want to know which way all of our experts are leaning, you can check that out on our CBSSports.com picks page. 

2. NFL Week 10 picks: Lions roll in Germany, Vikings lose first game with Kirk Cousins

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have five NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and me — handing out picks each week. If you're wondering who did the best last week, I went 14-1 straight-up, and I STILL DIDN'T WIN THE WEEK. That's because Prisco, Dubin AND Sullivan all went 15-0. They clearly copied each other's picks. I should ban them for at least one week for that. 

Anyway, if you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 10 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 10 predictions; if you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life. 

• Pete Prisco — Lions (-2.5) 30-24 over Patriots in Munich. From Prisco: "This is a big game for both teams, but especially so for the Patriots after they got blown out by the Packers at home last week. The Lions won at Miami and didn't play great, but they will get it going on offense here. New England is struggling on defense, so look for the Lions to win it with a strong offensive showing." For the rest of Prisco's Week 10 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan — Steelers (+3.5) 27-24 over Bengals. From Sullivan: "The Steelers defense is tied for the fifth-lowest yards per play average (5.0), tied for the fourth-lowest points per game allowed (18.0), and tied for the eighth-lowest passer rating allowed (83.3). Meanwhile, Cincinnati's defense is tied for the most yards per rush attempt allowed so far this season (5.0), which sets up Jaylen Warren to continue his ascent as one of the true breakout players of the season. On top of this being a potential mismatch for the Bengals going up against this stout Steelers team, their scheduling surrounding this game does them no favors. While they'll be at home in Week 10, Cincinnati is coming off an international game in Madrid last week. As for the Steelers, they're fresh off their bye week, creating a sizable rest discrepancy. All of this is a recipe for an upset." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 10 picks, be sure to click here.
• Jordan Dajani — Chiefs (-3.5) 26-20 over Falcons. From Dajani: "I initially wanted to take the points here with the Atlanta Falcons, but they just got home from Madrid and sent safety Jessie Bates III to the Jaguars at the trade deadline. The Falcons were dominated by the Bengals abroad, 34-17, meaning they have lost back-to-back games by at least 16 points." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
• Jared Dubin — Packers 17-14 over Vikings (+3.5). From Dubin: "These two defenses are playing extraordinarily well right now, and I think they'll be able to get a handle on what each offense is doing. In the end, I trust Jordan Love more than I do Kirk Cousins, so we'll take the Packers in a close, low-scoring game." For the rest of Dubin's Week 10 picks, be sure to click here. 
• John Breech — Texans (-4.5) 24-16 over Browns. From me: "Deshaun Watson will finally have a chance to get revenge on the Texans. Actually, you could probably argue that the Texans are trying to get revenge on him. Either way, I think this is going to be a long day for Watson. The Browns' QB has been sacked more times than any other QB in the NFL this year (33), and he'll be facing a defense that leads the NFL in sacks (29). That's a recipe for disaster. There have only been three games all season where a QB has been sacked at least eight times: Two of them were Deshaun Watson (vs. Jets in Week 5 and vs. Steelers in Week 8), and the other one happened on Sunday with the Texans sacking Justin Herbert eight times. 
  Watson might get sacked 10 times in this game." For the rest of my Week 10 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 10 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here. 

3. Midseason Award Predictions: Joe Burrow is the MVP frontrunner

Now that the NFL has a 17-game season, I'm not exactly sure when the clear halfway point of the year is, but we're going to pretend it's today and hand out some midseason predictions

We rounded up 15 CBS Sports writers, and we had them vote on who's going to win the biggest awards based on what we've seen through the first nine weeks. 

Let's take a look at how four of the biggest awards turned out in our vote: 

MVP
1. Bengals QB Joe Burrow (11 votes)
2. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (2 votes)
T-3. Packers QB Jordan Love (1 vote) 
T-3. 49ers QB Brock Purdy (1 vote)

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6) 
2. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs (4)
3. Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker (4) 

Offensive Rookie of the Year
1. Browns WR Denzel Boston (7)
2. Broncos RB Jonah Coleman (3)
T-3. Titans WR Carnell Tate (2)
T-3. Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza (2) 

Coach of the Year
1. John Harbaugh, Giants (7)
2. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers (4)
3. Ben Johnson, Bears (2)

If this tells us one thing, it's that the awards could be all over the place this year. Out of all the categories, the battle for MVP was the only one where we got anything even remotely close to a unanimous vote. Burrow might be in the front right now, but if he gets swept by the Steelers or the Bengals don't end up beating a single team with a winning record, it's possible that someone else could come in and steal the award. 

Anyway, we also voted for every other award, and if you want to see how that turned out, that is available here. 

4. Projecting all 14 teams that will make the NFL playoffs: 49ers and Bills on collision course

The playoff projections are back! We first unveiled them after Week 1, but early in the season, it's hard to tell who's actually good. However, with half the season now over, there's much more data available, and our projection model has taken it into account.

If you're wondering how these projections work, we brought in our resident analytics expert, Stephen Oh. Oh simulated the rest of the season to see how things will end up playing out. 

With that in mind, here's what the playoff field looks like according to Oh's projections: 

AFC (Current record)
1. Bills (7-1) -- AFC East champion
2. Jaguars (6-2) -- AFC South champion
3. Broncos (7-2) -- AFC West champion
4. Bengals (6-2) -- AFC North champion
5. Chiefs (6-2)
6. Steelers (6-2)
7. Patriots (5-4)
JUST MISSED: Texans (3-5), Browns (5-4)

AFC breakdown: According to our projection, the only real battle will be for the seventh seed. We have the Patriots projected to get the spot right now, but the Texans are nipping at their heels. We have both teams projected to finish the season at 9-8, but the Patriots are sneaking in thanks to a better conference record. 

NFC (Current record)
1. 49ers (7-1) -- NFC West champion
2. Lions (6-2) -- NFC North champion
3. Giants (5-2-1) -- NFC East champion
4. Buccaneers (3-6) -- NFC South champion
5. Bears (7-2)
6. Vikings (6-2)
7. Packers (6-3)
JUST MISSED: Seahawks (5-4), Rams (5-4)

NFC breakdown: For the first time this season, our model projects ALL FOUR NFC North teams to make the playoffs. At this point, it feels like the only way it won't happen is if the Rams or Seahawks reach 11 wins, but our computer doesn't see that happening. Having all four teams from a single division make the postseason in the same year wasn't possible until 2020, when the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams. Since then, there have been several instances where a division has put three teams in, but we still haven't seen a division put all four of its teams in, so this could be a history-making season. 

Not only did the computer project the entire playoff field, but it also picked a surprising Super Bowl winner. Spoiler alert: It was the BILLS. The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, but our computer thinks that's going to change this year. 

If you want to know who they're playing in the big game or who they beat in the playoffs, you'll have to check out my full story here. 

5. Three NFL trade deadline deals that should have happened

We saw only five trades go down on Tuesday, which was the fewest we've seen on any deadline day since 2020. Former NFL agent Joel Corry thought there should have been at least three more trades before the deadline. 

Basically, these trades would have made a lot of sense for both sides: 

• Giants get: Jonathan Taylor, 2028 sixth-round pick
• Colts get: 2027 second-round pick, 2028 third-round pick

Breech's  Breakdown: The Giants offered a small fortune for Taylor, but the Colts didn't think it was enough. It's hard to imagine Taylor's value getting much higher, so the Colts made a huge risk here by not making a deal. 

• Rams get: Brian Thomas Jr.
• Jaguars get: 2027 second-round pick

Breech's Breakdown: With Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both out due to injury, the Rams are in dire need of some receiving help, and giving the Jaguars a second-round pick in exchange for Thomas would have made a lot of sense for both sides. 

Tony Pollard to the Packers

• Packers receive: Tony Pollard
• Titans receive: Conditional 2027 fourth-round pick (becomes a third-round pick if Packers advance to Super Bowl LXI and Pollard leads Packers in rushing after trade)

Breech's Breakdown: The Packers have the worst rushing attack in football, and with Josh Jacobs expected to miss the next few weeks, it's only going to get worse. Adding Pollard would have given the Packers a huge boost in the backfield. 

Corry had a full breakdown of why each of these trades could have worked. Check that out here.  

6. Extra points: Broncos-Chargers trade called off

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Broncos deal with Chargers falls through. The Broncos tried to make a trade for Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley on Tuesday, but that deal is now off after Henley apparently failed his physical on Wednesday night. The Broncos were going to send a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick to LA to get the deal done, but now, they'll get to keep those picks. If you want the full story on this situation, we've got that here. 
• Carson Beck set to make first start of his career. With Gardner Minshew out for the season, the Cardinals are turning their offense over to Carson Beck. The rookie QB will make the first start of his career on Sunday against the Rams. The third-round pick saw action in the preseason Hall of Fame game, going 15-of-19 for 188 yards, but he hasn't thrown a single regular-season pass this year. With Beck starting, this will mark the first time since 1987 that three rookie quarterbacks drafted outside of the first two rounds all started a game in the same season. Beck joins Baltimore's Joe Fagnano a and Tampa Bay's Jalon Daniels, who both went undrafted. 
• Ravens add two kickers. The Ravens are in the middle of a kicking crisis. They lost Tyler Loop to injury back in Week 8, and their kicker in Week 9 — Jake Moody — got stolen by Atlanta. He was on Baltimore's practice squad, so the Falcons legally signed him to their active roster. Going into practice on Wednesday, the Ravens had ZERO kickers on their roster, but that has now changed. The team has signed both Riley Patterson and Harrison Mevis (Mevis will be on the practice squad. The Ravens are struggling right now, but they could bounce back with their next four games coming against teams with three wins or fewer (Chargers, at Panthers, at Texans, Buccaneers).