Jannik Sinner's season-ending knee injury has completely changed the race to the Nitto ATP Finals this year. With just three weeks of qualifying left, only 700 points separate fifth place from 11th in the Race to Turin. Here’s a look at how the ATP Finals field is shaping up in the final stretch of the season.

Who Has Already Qualified

So far, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, and Ben Shelton have all secured their places in the ATP Finals. Sinner, currently ranked world No. 2, would also have his spot secured if he were healthy and active. Zverev clinched on August 6th and leads the Race with 9,150 points; Alcaraz qualified on September 16th and has 4,600, and Shelton’s place was recently confirmed on October 18th, with 4,480 points.

How Sinner’s Absence Changes Qualification

Sinner’s absence from this year’s ATP Finals means the ninth-ranked player will take the final qualifying spot. Typically, the top seven players qualify automatically, and the eighth spot goes to the highest-ranked Grand Slam winner ranked between 8th and 20th. This year, all four major champions are already in the field (Alcaraz, Zverev, Sinner), meaning the player with the next highest point total will claim the final spot instead.

Sinner is still second in the Race to Turin with 7,950 points, but he’s out for the rest of the season with a right knee injury, so the player in ninth place effectively takes the last spot. That is currently Rafael Jodar with 3,159 points.

The Race to Turin at a Glance

Below is an overview of the players still in the hunt for an ATP Finals spot, with standings as of midweek.

Players Chasing Debuts

Five of the players still chasing a spot are looking for their first Nitto ATP Finals appearance. Flavio Cobolli would be making his debut in front of Italian fans in Turin, and is playing three straight weeks in Lyon, Vienna, and Paris to secure his spot. Frances Tiafoe was five points ahead of Arthur Fils after Fils reached the Brussels quarterfinals, but Tiafoe withdrew from Lyon with a right leg injury, leaving his Finals contention in question.

Arthur Fils won Barcelona and his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati this year, hoping to capitalize on the best year of his career with a Finals appearance. Finally, Rafael Jodar holds the last effective spot after reaching the Shanghai final, and he’s resting this week before Basel and Paris. Tommy Paul is also chasing a debut despite his low odds of making it, with a deep run in Lyon keeping his hopes alive.

Veterans Still in the Hunt

Daniil Medvedev is chasing his seventh ATP Finals appearance, qualifying every year from 2019 to 2024. He won the title back in 2020, but missed the 2025 event altogether, and he’s the defending champion in Almaty this week. Novak Djokovic has won the event a record seven times but skipped 2024 and 2025. After his Shanghai loss, he said he planned to play only in Paris, but this week he accepted a wild card into Basel.

Alex De Minaur is in 10th and chasing a third straight appearance at the ATP Finals. He would need to reach the Vienna final to pass Jodar before Paris, as long as Jodar loses by the round of 16 in Basel. Finally, Taylor Fritz is the least likely qualifier at 13th, and needs more than 600 points for the last qualifying spot. He would realistically need nothing short of a title in Paris to catch up.

What to Watch

This week’s ATP 250 events in Almaty, Lyon, and Brussels offer fewer points, while Vienna and Basel, both ATP 500s, begin on October 26th. The Paris Masters is the final chance to add points, with 1,000 available for the champion. 

Positioning could shift in the final weeks before the ATP Finals, especially with multiple events ending this weekend and Tiafoe’s plans uncertain after his withdrawal from Lyon. The gap between Jodar and de Minaur is 279 points, and Djokovic is 319 points back, so a deep run in Basel or Vienna could easily change the picture before Paris.