For well over a month now, I have been sitting on a piece about the hole the Ibrox club has dug for itself with its European failure and the extraordinary amount of money it spent in the summer transfer window.

I still have not published it.

I am not entirely sure why. Probably because it is long, detailed and bloated, and needs a fair bit of work which, frankly, I have not been motivated to give it.

But when the Ibrox fan groups met with Andrew Cavanagh last week, I knew I was going to have to write something about their finances. Because Cavanagh delivered some rather bad news to those supporters.

Do not expect signings in January. How could there be?

They emptied the pot in the summer, at a time when they had expected to make a major player sale which never happened. They spent heavily because they believed they had to close the gap on Celtic quickly, and now the consequences of that decision are starting to become apparent.

And this is where Paraag Marathe’s recent comments become extremely interesting.

Marathe has effectively admitted that the ownership group has adopted a different strategy at Ibrox from the one it follows at Leeds.

At Leeds, the approach is more strategic, measured and long-term. There are financial regulations to consider, the jeopardy of relegation, the possibility of moving between divisions and the requirement to build something sustainable.

At Ibrox? Different environment. Different priorities. Marathe essentially admitted that the focus there is much more short-term.

What do they need to do to win the league? What do they need to do to beat Celtic?

Think about that for a moment.

These people know what disciplined long-term planning looks like because they are doing it elsewhere. They have chosen to depart from it at Ibrox because they believe the pressure to win immediately requires something different.

That is quite an admission. In fact, when you put Marathe’s comments alongside Cavanagh’s message to the supporters, you get what amounts to a double confession.

One man is explaining why they abandoned the more patient model. The other is explaining what the consequences now look like. And I find that fascinating.

The Ibrox board has decided to be rather more upfront with its supporters about the position it has got itself into. That must be an unwelcome change for a fanbase which has spent months acting as though American investment was simply going to produce more and more and more money to burn.

Part of the problem is that supporters have been conditioned by sections of the Scottish media not to distinguish between money Andrew Cavanagh controls as part of his business interests and Andrew Cavanagh’s personal wealth to spend however he likes.

Those are not the same thing.

Yet Ibrox supporters have repeatedly been encouraged to treat the wealth of directors and investors as though it somehow belongs to the football club.

Well, now reality is arriving. Everything that club does has to be funded.

It does not matter how many people convince themselves that there is a bottomless pit of cash somewhere or a magic money tree hidden behind the Main Stand. The money still has to come from somewhere.

The investors have already paid substantial sums to acquire control of the club. They have funded an aggressive summer transfer programme. They did so without the major player sale they had hoped for and without anything like the European income they would have wanted to help offset the damage.

Somebody has to carry the cost, and there is nobody on that board who is going to be enthusiastic about carrying enormous losses indefinitely out of his own pocket.

The institutional investors will not do it either.

If the football operation cannot fund itself, the shortfall eventually has to be covered through equity, borrowing, player sales, spending cuts or some combination of all four.

There is no fifth option where the Americans simply throw another bundle of cash onto the table because people on social media demand a new midfielder.

And that is why Derek McInnes’s comments yesterday were so interesting.

McInnes basically confirmed that he has had discussions with the chairman and the CEO and that January is expected to be quiet.

Of course, that had to be spun. It had to be presented as a collective footballing decision. The squad is strong enough. They are happy with what they have.

They do not need to spend.

Apparently, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the amount already committed in the summer, the failure to generate the expected player sale, the reduced European income or financial sustainability pressures. No.

This was simply a decision everybody reached together because further spending is not required. Oh, please.

It astonishes me that sections of the media are willing not only to swallow that obvious bullshit but to regurgitate it and assume the audience will swallow it too.

This is not some sudden footballing revelation that the squad is perfect. This is McInnes being told: you got the money in the summer. You got more than you probably should have got. There is nothing much coming in January. Get on with it.

Right now, he can live comfortably enough with that line.

Why wouldn’t he? Confidence around Ibrox is high. They think Celtic are a mess. They believe they can get in front of us.

Perhaps they think they can open up a lead.

But football changes quickly.

If the wheels come off in any meaningful way, if they start dropping points and the title begins moving away from them, you can guarantee that before Christmas, and certainly before the window opens, McInnes will start talking about needing a little more.

Then it becomes decision time for the investors. If they can sell somebody for significant money in January, perhaps McInnes gets part of it back.

That would be perfectly normal football business.

But if the money does not come in first, somebody over there needs to start following a rational plan. Because this cannot simply continue indefinitely.

And the implications do not end in January.

They stretch into next summer as well. Win the title and the picture changes dramatically. Fail to win it, and the problem rolls forward.

They would be looking at another season without the European income they really want, another hole in the finances and another decision about whether to spend aggressively again chasing the same prize.

The appetite for doing that will surely be considerably lower if the first attempt fails.

That is the part I think some people are missing. This summer was not normal spending. It was a gamble. Marathe has effectively told us that himself.

The ownership group decided that the particular environment at Ibrox demanded a shorter-term approach focused on beating Celtic and winning the league.

Fine. Then the success or failure of that strategy has to be judged against the thing it was designed to achieve. If they win the title, they can argue that the gamble worked.

If they do not, they will have spent heavily, sacrificed some of the long-term discipline they preach elsewhere and still ended up exactly where they started.

Except with less room to manoeuvre.

That is why January matters. Not because I expect some dramatic financial crisis. Not in terms of money in the bank, but certainly in terms of what UEFA will allow them to spend.

“We’ve agreed that we’re satisfied with the team.”

That would certainly be an Ibrox first. But the real novelty here is not satisfaction. It is fiscal restraint. For once, somebody over there appears to be saying that the answer to every footballing problem cannot simply be writing another cheque.

The question is whether that survives contact with pressure.

If they fall behind, if the title begins to slip away and if McInnes starts publicly asking for reinforcements, do the investors hold the line? Or do they open the wallet again and repeat the same mistake?

Because January will tell us whether this is the beginning of something resembling financial discipline at Ibrox, or merely the first pause before they start spending all over again. That board has a big decision to make.

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