Some 23 years ago, I bet a Welsh mate, who was 33 at the time, that Wales would not beat New Zealand before his 60th birthday. At the time, he called me things that most Welsh people think anyway: an arrogant, English... you know the rest.

Five or six years ago, when he hit 50, he told me he could pay me now. “We are screwed,” he said. Over the past 30 years, he has flown more than 100,000 miles to watch Wales play New Zealand, religiously, until yesterday. He decided to skip the game through apathy and fear and, judging by the empty seats in the Principality Stadium, he was not alone. That is where Welsh rugby, even against an experimental All Blacks side, had found itself.

He texted me at full time in tears: “What a f---ing muppet I am.” At half-time I replied to say it was unbelievable. He was delighted, of course, but he still did not believe they would win. Why? “Because we never do.” And, in that sentence, in that thought, you have the greatest block to any human being. If people say you can’t, and if you believe it, you never will.

Seventy-three years of hurt ended. When I cheekily pointed out that it could be another 73 until the next, he told me to get stuffed. “I’m going to have a great night,” he said. That’s what sport is all about.

Who knows where Welsh rugby goes now. When belief and confidence are instilled, it can mitigate for other areas or potential deficiencies. It then becomes about the coaching. Steve Tandy has done a fabulous job with what is, on paper, not a vintage Wales side. They are more competitive but he has also touched on emotion; finding human connections.

The best teams in the world are very rarely a collection of the best individuals. The best teams have a connectivity and they find a way. What Wales did in the last half hour – three times holding up New Zealand – was remarkable. It was the greatest 30 minutes of defensive rugby you’ll see: defiant, belligerent, organised, brave.

James Botham epitomised that. Everyone in England knows about Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake after their excellent couple of months with Gloucester, but Botham was every bit as good on Saturday. The blindside was not picked last week but here he was, weeping at full time after a defensive masterclass. I was chatting to his grandad at Twickenham last week and Beefy could not have been prouder. Sport needs as many Bothams as possible.

All teams have bogey sides, but breaking the hoodoo could do wonders for Wales. We saw with Ireland, when they finally defeated New Zealand for the first time in Chicago in 2016, how the balance can alter once the psychological monkey is off a team’s back. Ireland now beat New Zealand as much as – if not more than – they lose to them. Big wins like this feed you.

When I was playing for England, we never fell as far as Wales, but we did have similar moments. In the autumn of 2002 we defeated the big southern-hemisphere three of New Zealand, Australia and South Africa in 15 days. Admittedly, we were close to the best team in the world at that point, but we still needed to have that belief to get over those hurdles. We treated it like a World Cup where, normally, you will have to defeat two of those sides to lift the trophy. After those wins, we felt as though we were walking on air, even on the training field.

Confidence is not a tap that can just be turned on and off at will. It is amazing what the organic building of it can do to a team.

Wales’ attitude now must be: one swallow does not a summer make

England are away in Cardiff during the Six Nations; Wales have not suddenly become the best team in the world but they will not fear anyone at home now. Or, at least, they shouldn’t. They have shown that they can live with the best teams in the world. A year away from the World Cup, where England and Wales face each other, belief is growing and psychology is maturing.

Wales’s attitude now must be: one swallow does not a summer make. Dave Rennie, the New Zealand coach, a year out from the World Cup did exactly the same in 2022 with Australia, rotating against Italy. The Wallabies lost and Rennie was dragged over the coals. The same will probably happen to him this week, but he had one eye on England next weekend and, also, building a squad for the World Cup. He cannot pick his first team every week, but he opened the door to Wales. His All Blacks became predictable and lacked belief towards the end. 

The Welsh anthem still gives me goosebumps now when I hear it; what memories I have of that stadium, as a raucous, rapturous cathedral of rugby. Wales are such a proud, traditional rugby nation and I am so pleased for my Welsh mates who love and know their rugby, who have been genuinely hurt by the team’s current malaise. Saturday’s match-day squad have secured their greatest memory ever; they will be talking of that victory with their grandchildren for many years to come.