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Michael King Could Be Worth the $100 Million Gamble for Blue Jays

King has overcome his injuries and stands out among the top starting pitchers on the free-agent market.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King (34). Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It’s time for the Toronto Blue Jays to take care of improving the top of their rotation, and this could be a good time with all the alternatives available on the market.

Although I don’t rule out the Jays entering the conversation for Tarik Skubal, there are other interesting and less expensive options such as right-hander Michael King, a starter who combines experience, the ability to complete innings, and a track record of high-level dominance.

King, 31, is coming off completing 185 innings with the San Diego Padres, after a 2025 season in which he went through physical problems and was able to make only 15 starts.

King’s pitch mix caused his home run rate allowed per nine innings to drop from 1.47 in 2025 to 0.97, and he showed durability by securing at least five innings in 28 of his 32 starts. However, some of his advanced statistics, such as his 4.33 xFIP — the highest since 2021 — show that he still has not fully regained the dominance that made him one of the best starters in the National League when he recorded 4.0 fWAR in 2024.

That said, King would fit very well alongside Dylan Cease in the first and second spots of Toronto’s rotation, followed by Jose Soriano and Trey Yesavage, which would strengthen the front end, leaving less uncertainty for the following spots.

The Risk and Price the Blue Jays Will Have to Take On

San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King (34). Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In that 2024 season, King recorded 201 strikeouts in 173 ⅔ innings during that 2024 campaign, with a 2.95 ERA and a 3.50 xFIP, but this year, despite working 11 ⅓ more innings, he finished with 159 strikeouts, seeing his K/9 drop dangerously from 9.33 to 7.74, the lowest point of his entire career in seasons with at least 50 innings pitched.

It is true that King finished in the 38th percentile in strikeouts and 46th in whiff rate, far from the numbers he reached in 2024. However, there is something important to analyze here, and that is that his ability to avoid hard contact somehow compensated for the drop in his strikeouts and remains a point in his favor, finishing 2026 in the 89th percentile in Hard Hit% allowed and 66th in ground balls.

Michael King rolling stats | TJ Stats.

Two of the main weapons in his arsenal, his changeup and his sweeper, were important tools in sustaining the results. In 2026, the changeup recorded a Run Value of +12, and the league finished with a .276 slugging percentage, while the sweeper held opponents to just a .221 xBA and generated the second-highest whiff rate in his entire repertoire at 27.7%. The sinker, his most-used pitch, saw its strikeout rate drop from 29.9% to 19.7% and finished allowing a .454 slugging percentage.

FanGraphs’ projection places his possible contract at around four seasons and $100 million, with an average annual salary of $25 million. Behind Tarik Skubal, King has the highest Run Value (+19) in Pitching among all pitchers available in free agency, so that figure seems defensible to me for a starter who is coming off completing 185 innings and has been capable of pitching at the level of a rotation starter in both the regular season and the playoffs.

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