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The NFL trade deadline was Tuesday, and no one made a bigger move than the Minnesota Vikings. With their season hanging in the balance, the Vikings decided to make a trade for Kirk Cousins.
Thanks to the move, the Vikings are expected to coast into the playoffs along with EVERY OTHER TEAM in the NFC North. That's right, in our latest projection, we have all four NFC North teams making the postseason. If that happens, it would mark the first time in NFL history that a division has sent all four of its teams to the playoffs in one season.
So who else is projected to get in? Glad you asked.
To help us figure that out, we had our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season. There are 136 games left on the regular-season schedule, along with 13 playoff games, and Oh simulated all of them. Not only did he project all eight division winners and the 14 playoff teams, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings.
The AFC playoff picture is starting to take shape, and based on our projection, it's starting to feel like the playoff teams in this conference are almost locked in at this point. For the second straight week, not only does our projection have the same seven teams making the playoffs, but they're all seeded in the exact same spot.
Here's the projected AFC playoff field (with each team's current record):
1. Bills (7-1) -- AFC East champion
2. Jaguars (6-2) -- AFC South champion
3. Broncos (7-2) -- AFC West champion
4. Bengals (6-2) -- AFC North champion
5. Chiefs (6-2)
6. Steelers (6-2)
7. Patriots (5-4)
JUST MISSED: Texans (3-5), Browns (5-4)
According to our projection, the only real battle will be for the seventh seed. We have the Patriots projected to get the spot right now, but the Texans are nipping at their heels. We have both teams projected to finish the season at 9-8, but the Patriots are sneaking in thanks to a better conference record.
The good news for the Vikings is that adding Kirk Cousins does help: They're now projected to finish with 11 wins — compared to 10 without Cousins — but the problem is that 11 wins won't help them win the division. According to our projection, the Vikings are going to finish THIRD in the NFC North, but that will still be enough to get them in the postseason.
Here's the projected NFC playoff field (with each team's current record):
1. 49ers (7-1) -- NFC West champion
2. Lions (6-2) -- NFC North champion
3. Giants (5-2-1) -- NFC East champion
4. Buccaneers (3-6) -- NFC South champion
5. Bears (7-2)
6. Vikings (6-2)
7. Packers (6-3)
JUST MISSED: Seahawks (5-4), Rams (5-4)
For the first time all season, our model is projecting ALL FOUR NFC North teams to make the playoffs. At this point, it feels like the only way that's not going to happen is if the Rams or Seahawks get to 11 wins, but our computer doesn't see that happening.
Having all four teams from a single division make the postseason in the same year wasn't possible until 2020, when the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams. Since then, there have been several instances where a division has put three teams in, but we still haven't seen a division put all four of its teams in, so this could be a history-making season.
AFC
AFC breakdown: Homefield advantage ends up being an actual advantage here, with all three home teams winning in the opening round. With the Patriots and Chiefs going out, they would eliminate the two teams that have represented the AFC in eight of the past nine Super Bowls.
NFC
NFC breakdown: The NFC North has been the best division in football all year, and the division makes a statement in the wild-card round by producing three winners. If this happens, we'd get a rarity: The NFC North would become just the fifth division in NFL history to send three teams to the divisional round.
AFC
AFC breakdown: If our projection proves correct, earning home-field advantage could be a big deal in the AFC. After watching the home teams sweep through the wild-card round, the run continues with Buffalo and Jacksonville both winning at home. With the win, the Bills advance to their third AFC title game since 2020 while the Jaguars make a return trip to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2017.
NFC
NFC breakdown: The Lions beat an NFC North team in the wild-card round, and they continue their postseason run by beating another NFC North team in the divisional round. As for the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan figures out a way to get his offense going against Minnesota's tough defense, propelling his team to a win. This sets up a rematch of the 2023 NFC title game between the Lions and 49ers.
If you're scoring at home, we are now down to four teams: Three teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills, Jaguars and Lions) and one team that hasn't won a Super Bowl in over 30 years (the 49ers' last title came in 1994)
AFC Championship
NFC Championship
We've been doing a projection every week since the start of the season, and here's a look at the projected Super Bowl each week.
As you can see, the computer has really taken a liking to the Bills, as this marks the third straight week Buffalo is projected to win the Super Bowl. Scratch that, the computer actually loves the Bills: Buffalo has a 16.94% chance of winning it all, which is a huge number when you consider there's only one other team that's even above 10% (the Jaguars are at 10.74%).
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