It stands to reason that 2026 was the last, best season for many Baltimore Orioles.

It’s been that way under failed baseball operations executive Mike Elias for the most part during an eight-season rebuild that’s going nowhere but down, and with the team likely on the cusp of shaking up its pathetic major league hitting and pitching coaching rosters yet again, there is no reason to think they’ll get it right now. Even their “GM search” isn’t really a GM search, and everything Elias does warrants intense scrutiny.

The Elias Way is to find ways to build rosters than don’t fit and teams that can’t win with any regularity and the owners can’t be trusted to really invest to build a lineup that positions their best players to succeed. Elias has a vast checklist of issues to try to navigate this offseason, needing to thinking his infield, with a tepid free-agent class, and also overhaul his outfield. And, as we know, doing so with a fear of paying real money over an extended period of time for real, everyday baseball players.

So, while there are certainly candidates that we feel good about breaking through in 2027 and taking positive steps forward and there a few pieces you can dream on, there is also valid reason to believe that a few of the peak performers from the lost 2026 season will be taking a step backward. In some cases, significantly. These four candidates stick out:

Pete Alonso

He will still be a productive slugger, but do we think at age 32 he’s going to lead the American League in home runs and RBIs again? Yeah, I don’t think 43 and 113 is gonna be the case again next year, as he enters his age 32 season.

For starters, he basically hasn’t missed a baseball game in five years for injury – just getting like 10 days off that entire span – and he creeps to his mid-30s that’s just not going to be the case. It also stands to reason that Elias will build another swing-and-miss heavy lineup that can’t produce runs without home runs and lacks a real leadoff guy and on-base specialists who score runs, which will cut into Alonso’s run production as well.

I went to the ‘ol stathead feature on baseballreference.com to see how many teams an MLB ager 32 or older has played 140 or more games at first base and hit 35 homers since the Wild Card era began (1969). It’s happened only 22 times and only 14 players have done it and it’s happened only four times in the last 20 years – Matt Olson with 41 in 2026, Miguel Cabrera with 38 in 2016, Joey Votto with 36 in 2017 and Ryan Zimmerman with 36 in 2017.

Not saying Alonso can’t do it, but he set the bar really high in his first year in Baltimore.

Blaze Alexander

For like two-and-a-half months he was a top 10 hitter in MLB in terms of weighted runs created-plus or OPS or pretty much any metric you like. Sorry, but I just don’t see that happening again and I don’t think that’s the reality of what this super-utility guy is.

There was a reason, even as he was raking and the Orioles' lineup was sucking that Elias and his computer-obsessed pals wouldn’t let him bat above 8th in the lineup. He certainly is toolsy, and I could see him being a guy they try to get 500 plate appearances by moving around and keeping him active. He hits the ball hard, but, also swings and misses too much and the jump from .240 hitter to .300 last season and 32% on base to 36% feels unsustainable.

Maybe he is a late bloomer, but there is also a chance Elias way over-exposes him as he is apt to do. Alexander is scrappy and versatile - though the glove didn't fare as well as I would like overall - and he brings a grinder's mentality to a team that desperately needs it, but all the moving around and diving around makes me wonder about durability, too.

Brandon Young

We like him. We liked him early on and we think he is a solid back-end starter. And we love how he pitches off his fastballs and doesn’t nibble and back down … But he doesn’t have elite stuff and the ball is put in play on him an awful lot, and if he leads the Orioles starting rotation in ERA again next season several things went horribly wrong.

Alex Hoppe

A reliever with a 10% walk rate scares me.

Maybe the Orioles fixed something with him, and he certainly was effective for them after being a disaster with Seattle. Still was below average on the season throwing a first-pitch strike.

Has elite velo though most of his offerings don’t get the movement you would love and the fastball has to be an elite weapon for him if he’s going to show up in all the leverage spots he was used in late last season. And let’s be real – anytime Elias thinks he found a gem or won a trade he ramps up the role of that player and they tend to get overexposed.

Seattle has been a pretty good pitching factory and he was a last-resort, mop-up guy. Again, I like what I saw in moderation and believe he’s better than that version with the Mariners, but there is a lot of variance with relivers in general and especially those who aren’t really established yet.

Subscribe To "The Daily Flock" For No BS O's Content And Conversations: