AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Kimi Antonelli strolled easily through the paddock at the Circuit of the Americas, his boyish grin, tousled hair and easy demeanor never giving a hint of what is at stake the for 20-year-old Italian.

The Mercedes driver will start the United States Grand Prix on Sunday with his fingertips tantalizingly within reach of the Formula One championship.

It would be a stretch to win the title on Sunday, and things would have to fall perfectly in place. But it could happen. And if it does, Antonelli would become the youngest champion in F1 history and first Italian since Alberto Ascari in 1953.

“It definitely is crazy if you think about it, but that’s why I won’t think about it," Antonelli said. ”The others need to have a poor result, which is unlikely to happen.”

An Antonelli victory, coupled with Mercedes teammate George Russell finishing ninth or lower and Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton finishing fifth or lower would clinch it. That's a tangle of mathematical formulas.

Even if they don't add up, Antonelli will leave Austin closer to the championship as his rivals are simply running out of races left on the calendar to catch him.

Whenever Antonelli is crowned, it will cap off a season where Mercedes jumped to the front of the grid from the opening race, boosted by a new generation of cars.

Many thought it would be George Russell in Antonelli's position by late October. He was the team's No. 1 veteran driver. He won the first race.

Antonelli quickly caught him, passed him and ultimately left his teammate behind in a cloud of frustration. Antonelli won the next five races and has eight wins total.

“It’s been really great to see his performances this year. It’s massively impressive, and he deserves to be the champion,” said Hamilton, a seven-time champion with McLaren and Mercedes.

Cadillac driver Valtteri Bottas was Antonelli's teammate at Mercedes in 2025 and watched the ups and downs of his rookie season.

“He’s just taking things to the next level this year. It makes me proud,” Bottas said. “He hasn’t shown any signs of pressure or weakness.”

Off-track factors could also help Antonelli's title chase.

The final two races on the schedule are in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Formula 1 officials have said they plan to race both, even amid tensions in the Middle East from the Iran war. But officials are planning a possible substitute race at Imola in Italy.

If the season is shortened, that could hand Antonelli the title outright as there wouldn't be enough races left to catch him.

Max Verstappen on a late-season charge

The Red Bull driver would seem the favorite to win Sunday after dominant victories in Malaysia and Singapore. Verstappen has four career victories at COTA. It has been an impressive turn in form for the former four-time champion after a slow and frustrating start raised questions whether he might even leave F1.

Ferrari has had late pace as well

Verstappen teammate Isack Hadjar caused a stir when he said Red Bull didn't have the fastest car in Singapore. “I think if you put Max in the Ferrari, he would have won the race with more margin,” Hadjar said Thursday. That's news to Hamilton. “We’re going to have different opinions there,” Hamilton said. “Maybe the track suits our car, and maybe they’ll have a one-off weekend. Maybe Mercedes will have an off weekend again, and we’ll be right there to take it.” Drivers love COTA, hate the bumps Most of the drivers laud COTA as one of the best tracks in the world. And every year, they complain about bumps that can make a 90-minute race a nightmare on their lower back. “I love this track, I love this place. One of the best layouts ever," Verstappen said. “But for me the bumps are unacceptable.” The track has long had bump problems due to the soft soil underneath. Track officials have made regular repairs since it opened in 2012. The bumps are most visible on the long straight, but Verstappen said the drivers feel them the most in braking zones. Defending F1 champion Lando Norris of McLaren agreed it's a problem. He also said it's not unique to COTA. “I mean, it’s pretty bad," Norris said. “There's a lot of places I need to take headache tablets before I go out, simply because it’s so bumpy and, and you’re hitting your head pretty hard against the headrests and things.” Cadillac's debut season a struggle The American team's debut season has included expected struggles for drivers Sergio Perez and Bottas, who have failed to finish races a combined 16 times. The team has scored no points. Austin and the upcoming Las Vegas races are at least a chance to embrace the team's American roots with a cowboy-themed livery on its cars this weekend. “Our focus is on next year’s car. It’s a long game,” Bottas said. “We know it’s going to be a tough end to the year for us, but it’s really all about building the foundation for the future.” ___ See AP’s full auto racing coverage here