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George Russell heads to Las Vegas 17 points behind Max Verstappen in the fight for second place, and Mercedes still cannot say what went wrong with its cars in Brazil, so any plan to put the team's weight behind Russell over the final three rounds only works if his W17 behaves.
Mercedes is investigating why both Russell and Kimi Antonelli complaining of "strange behaviour" at Interlagos, which was the team's first race of 2026 without a podium. Insiders at Mercedes believe a victory slipped away in Brazil, when the team was due to back Russell in his bid for P2 in the championship.
Russell spun at the pit exit after switching from intermediates to slicks and touched the wall before carrying on. Antonelli then spun at Turn 1 while he was leading the race. The champion told his engineers several times that the car pulled to one side under acceleration and handled badly in left-hand corners.
The car was quick on the soft tyre, and Antonelli set the fastest lap of the race, a 1m12.689s. Both drivers then struggled once they went back to intermediates for the final wet stint. Wolff did not hide how unusual the problems were for his two drivers.
George is not someone who spins in the pitlane on the exit, and Kimi the same. And both reported a very, very strange behaviour of the car, like something's broken in the suspension or too much pressure in the tyres.- Toto Wolff
Asked what had gone wrong, Russell answered: "We don't know." He also offered an early theory. "Maybe it's a small theory because we were the first ones onto the inters, even just on that outlap on the driest track, you damage the tyres and the temps go up and you're in this negative spiral. As of now, that's the only explanation."
There was some good news for Russell. In the team's race report, he said he was leaving the weekend encouraged by his performance, adding: "I've been working hard to get back to that level consistently and I've felt much more like myself here", although how much of that is PR-speak is unknown.
The numbers however, support him. This was the first race since Baku in which Russell beat Antonelli on pace and the close split in data on Antonelli suggests the gap between the two Mercedes drivers is closing just as the team considers giving Russell priority.
Russell's results have depended on the car all season, where he has been plagued by problems - unlike his teammate. After Russell's difficult race in Austin, Wolff said: "When we land the car in the way that suits him, he's absolutely fine. But when it drops out of the operational window, he struggles."
That is why the Brazil problem is worry as conditions in Las Vegas are expected to be even colder. If the problem was caused by cold, damaged tyres, it could come back in Las Vegas. Team orders can only help Russell in the fight for P2 if Mercedes first gives him a car he can trust over a full race and so far this season, they have failed to do that.