Over the weekend, Cincinnati Reds closer Emilio Pagan declined his $10 million player option with the Reds and will become a free agent.

On one hand, it was a surprising move, but on the other hand, it makes sense for Pagan and his future.

Reds beat reporter C. Trent Rosecrans shared an interesting take on Sunday, saying he still views Pagan as the favorite to be Cincinnati's closer next season.

"If I were kind of putting odds on it, I would still give him (Pagan) the best odds," C. Trent Rosecrans said on the Riverfront Territory podcast on Sunday night. "Emilio Pagan is a guy who is beloved in the clubhouse and front office. I think what he saw was one year, $10 million, after the season he had and how he did it, there is a good chance that is the floor."

Pagan dealt with a hamstring injury early in the season, but was dominant once he returned. The veteran right-hander returned on July 1 and pitched to an ERA of 1.88 over his last 30 games of the season.

Why Pagan Coming Back Could Make Sense

The Reds do not have an obvious answer on their roster to replace Pagan. Brock Burke is a player that would make sense, but he is also a free agent. Luis Mey has the stuff to be a closer, but that would be a giant step for him to take. Despite looking better at times last season, he's still been inconsistent throughout his big-league career.

So sure, it could make some sense to see Pagan back with the Reds in 2027.

Why It Seems Unlikely

If Pagan turned down a $10 million deal, it's likely because he wants a multi-year deal. He is set to turn 36 years old in May. Committing more than $10 million per year on a multi-year deal to a 36-year-old closer doesn’t seem like a smart move, even with how well he’s pitched over the past two seasons.

On top of that, the Reds have more pressing needs across the roster. They need a third baseman and a plan at second base unless they’re comfortable continuing to roll with Matt McLain. They need more offensive firepower in the outfield, including help to make platoons with Dane Myers and JJ Bleday work. If Tyler Stephenson doesn’t return, they’ll need a catcher, too. And that’s before addressing the starting rotation.

With that many holes to fill, committing that much money to an aging closer is hard to justify, regardless of how well-liked he is in the clubhouse.