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Leinster’s chances of Champions Cup glory look slim for a number of reasons

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Leinster is that they will effectively be trying to win with virtually an entirely home-grown team

Leinster's James Ryan during training ahead of their Champions Cup match against Clermont. Photograph: Morgan Treacy/Inpho
Leinster's James Ryan during training ahead of their Champions Cup match against Clermont. Photograph: Morgan Treacy/Inpho

Leinster have possibly never been such long odds to win the Champions Cup since the last of their four triumphs in 2018 against Racing 92 in Bilbao, and with good reason. Paddy Power makes them 9/2 third favourites, behind the French superpowers of six-time winners Toulouse and back-to-back Champions Cup winners Bordeaux Bègles and, all things considered, even those odds don’t look especially generous.

It’s not just that Leinster have accumulated so many disappointments since that triumph over Racing in the ensuing eights seasons, be it losing five finals and two semi-finals, notably the loss to Northampton two seasons ago.

But even if they were to reach another final, that will take place in Lyon at the end of May, which is likely to be in sweltering heat a-la Bilbao last season when Leinster were beaten 41-19 by Bordeaux Bègles. In all likelihood, it would also be akin to another home final for a French team, on the fairly safe presumption that at least one Top 14 side will get there.

The French clubs have a stranglehold on the trophy like no other era in the tournament’s 31-year history by dint of winning the last six in succession.

However, perhaps the biggest challenge for Leinster is that they will effectively be trying to win the Champions Cup with virtually an entirely home-grown team. Of the 40 players they’ve used in three games to date, and likewise the 23-man squad for their opening game against Clermont Auvergne in the Stade Marcel Michelin (kick-off 4.15pm local time/3.15pm Irish), all are Irish qualified.

Rewind to their breakthrough 2008-09 triumph, and it was significantly influenced by the arrival of Rocky Elsom and Isa Nacewa especially, as well as CJ van der Linde to supplement Felipe Contepomi, Chris Whitaker and Stan Wright.

For their second victory two seasons later, Nacewa and Wright were still there, while Nathan Hines and Heinke van der Merwe were also part of that famous comeback win over Northampton in the final in Cardiff.

When Leinster defended their title at Twickenham a year later against Ulster with their most complete performance in a final, Brian O’Driscoll, Johnny Sexton, Sean O’Brien et al were supplemented by Nacewa and van der Merwe again, as well as the short-term signing of Brad Thorn. He was a vital contributor and left a lasting impression from his three months at the province.

In that 2018 final, the remarkable Nacewa, surely the best overseas signing by any of the provinces in Champions Cup history, kicked three penalties in the 15-12 win over Racing 92, with Scott Fardy also starting.

Due to EPCR’s ruling around non-European players, Leinster were restricted to choosing two from Fardy, Jamison Gibson-Park and James Lowe as the latter duo had still not become Irish-qualified. Lowe missed out on the Bilbao final but had made a telling contribution to Leinster reaching the final, scoring in the final pool win over Glasgow and the quarter-final victory against Saracens.

Yet in addition to Lowe’s contract not being renewed at the end of last season, Reiko Ioane has returned to the Blues and Rabah Slimani has joined Toulon, with financial constraints and next year’s World Cup resulting in no overseas signings to replace them.

Hence, of the 43 players registered in Leinster’s squad, all but the currently injured RG Snyman are Irish-qualified. In its home-grown make-up, no squad in the competition is remotely comparable.

The French clubs have to adhere to the JIFF system (Joueurs Issus des Filières de Formation, or academy-trained/homegrown players) and Toulouse have an unrivalled production line of young French players in their system, but their squad still has eight overseas players.

They could bring in a world-class centre such as the Italian Tommaso Menoncello from Benetton to supplement the likes of his compatriot Ange Capuozzo, the Argentinian duo of Juan Cruz Mallía and Santiago Chocobares, and Blair Kinghorn.

Leinster may have had more capped players in last year’s final in Bilbao, but that is misleading, for Bordeaux Bègles have nine non-French qualified players who are of international standard, such as Salesi Rayasi. He has won only four caps for Fiji but would walk into most Test sides.

All things considered, if Leinster manage to win a fifth star his season, it would be the finest achievement of them all.

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