A guilty verdict, irrefutable evidence being refuted, potential expulsion from the Premier League and an away end filled with inflatable bananas: it’s been quite the few weeks for Manchester City. City, the only team in English football history to be relegated as defending champions, have never done things the easy way, and this is yet another twist in the tale for the country’s rollercoaster club. But in the wake of a damming guilty verdict on the club’s finances, City are staring down the barrel, with points deductions, relegation and even an enforced ownership change on the list of potential punishments.

City deny the claims and have appealed the verdict, but what have they actually done?

The Premier League initially charged City with over 100 serious breaches of its financial rules back in 2023 following an extensive investigation, and an independent commission was set up to hear the case. The charges stretched across a nine-year period from 2009 to 2018 - a time when City dominated English football, winning the Premier League and League Cup three times each, as well as the FA Cup twice.

The hearing concluded in December 2024, but it wasn’t until September 2026 that a verdict was released, and it didn’t make for pretty reading as far as City were concerned. The independent commission found City guilty of all financial rule breaks, as well as the majority of charges relating to cooperating with the investigation.

One of the headline rule breaks, as delivered in the independent commission’s verdict, related to the ‘sham contracts’ arranged with a number of commercial partners to disguise funding of more than £800million.

The commission found that between 2009 and 2018, City were: “relying on sham agreements to artificially inflate the club's revenues and reduce its costs.”

It also said: "a number of important club witnesses gave false evidence in key respects and that some knowingly gave untrue and dishonest evidence". The disguised funding scheme, which totalled £830.69m, is said to have been orchestrated by City’s ownership group - Abu Dhabi United Group (ADUG).

The ADUG, which is led by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family, bought Manchester City for £200m in the summer of 2008 and transformed the club’s fortunes. For the first time in a generation, the previously starved City fanbase were granted a seat at English football’s top table, and under the tutelage of Roberto Mancini, began winning silverware.

It started with the FA Cup in 2011, before one of the most dramatic ends to a Premier League season in 2012, when City netted twice in five minutes to snatch the title away from rivals Manchester United.

To get to that point, City splashed the cash on top talents like Yaya Toure, David Silva, Samir Nasri, and Sergio Aguero, who netted the winning goal on the final day of the 2011/12 season. However, while they were sweeping all before them, the bureaucratic landscape of European football had changed significantly shortly after the 2008 takeover, with the introduction of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play rules.

They came into effect for the 2011/12 season, and around the same time, City announced a front-of-shirt and stadium sponsorship deal with Etihad Airways - the UAE’s national airline. The Manchester-based side continued to spend big off the pitch and win trophies on it, before eventually announcing Pep Guardiola as the club’s new manager in 2016.

The success amplified under the Catalan, but then, the House of City was rocked by the so-called Football Leaks story in German magazine Der Spiegel, which alleged City’s Etihad sponsorship deal was mainly funded by owner Sheikh Mansour.

UEFA launched an investigation into the saga, which culminated in a two-year ban from the Champions League, which City later overturned via a Court of Arbitration for Sport hearing in July 2020.

By this point though, the horse had already bolted, and the Premier League’s announcement in February 2023 was met with opposition, as City claimed an “irrefutable body of evidence” to support their position and welcomed the chance to clear their name.

In the end, the evidence was refuted, and with significant condemnation by the independent commission, which will now meet again to decide an appropriate sanction. Expulsion from the Premier League would be a doomsday scenario for City, as it wouldn’t guarantee their place in the English pyramid and would require the EFL to accept them. Then there’s the possibility that trophies from the time period in question will be stripped. Less ‘Agueroooo’, more ‘Aguer-oh no’.

When that sanction will be announced or released is another question altogether. There is no timescale, but the Premier League have said they want this resolved within the current campaign, including the ongoing appeal process. But, in truth, that’s the simple side of things, because this saga has now stretched way beyond the realms of football finance and governance.

Andy Burnham has been dragged into the quagmire, firstly after reports emerged that the Prime Minister met with City’s owners during his time as Greater Manchester mayor. And then, after claims that the UAE warned it could pull billions of pounds of investment if City are hit with a hefty sanction, including the proposed Oxford–Cambridge hi-tech hub, touted as the UK's answer to Silicon Valley.

In truth, it’s a mess, and while City might be guilty, there’s an argument the Premier League could end up the biggest loser in this case. It’s expected that other top-flight clubs will seek damages for seasons impacted by City’s rule breaches, while there are question marks over how this will affect the next broadcast deal, given the cloud it has cast over the legitimacy of English football.

In the meantime, the reaction of the City fanbase has been defiant. The 3,000 or so who made the journey to Anfield last weekend - their first match since the guilty verdict - did so with hoards of inflatable bananas.

The novelty blow-ups act as a throwback to when City fans would take the inflatables to matches in a bid to brighten up the gloom and doom of football terraces in the 1980s. They stuck around and have become a symbol of remembrance for a time when City weren’t dominating English football and were defined by their time spent outside the top flight.

Coupled with chants and banners in support of the ownership group, as well as the odd Sheikh-inspired fancy dress costume, the response has been unusual, but unmistakably City.

Critics have dubbed it arrogant, suggesting it’s distasteful for City fans to be acting jubilant at a time the club is facing so much uncertainty. However, City fans argue that without the investment from Mansour and ADUG, they would never have had the chance to dance with the big boys, and the memories they’ve experienced as fans refute claims of financial misdeeds.

City won the lottery in 2008, and have enjoyed previously unthinkable highs ever since. The overwhelming majority aren’t allowing the independent commission’s verdict to taint that. Away from the terrace theatrics, the big picture continues to grow. There are some suggestions this is the beginning of the end, but in reality, it is likely the end of the beginning.

While, at long last, the footballing world has its verdict, it’s merely the first act of a play that will rumble on, with the implications likely to be felt both on and off the pitch for years to come.