Time: Thursday, November 12 at 7pm MT
Location: Marriott Center | Provo, UT
TV: ESPN+
Radio: BYU Radio

No. 23 BYU will look to move to 4-0 on Thursday night when the team hosts Montana State at the Marriott Center. The Cougars are off to a great start, scoring 300 points across their first three games.

The win against Queens on Tuesday wasn’t BYU’s best defensive effort, but the Cougars will look to be more disciplined on that end of the floor against Montana State. KenPom ranks the Bobcats 125th nationally and predicts a 90-72 BYU win.

A Big Sky favorite

Montana State enters the season as the team to beat in the Big Sky. The Bobcats were picked to finish first in both the Big Sky preseason coaches' and media polls. It’s the first time they've been the preseason favorite since the 2022-23 season.

Matt Logie, Montana State’s head coach, is in his fourth season in Bozeman. He took the Bobcats to the First Four of the NCAA Tournament in his first year with the program. That made him just the second coach to lead teams to the Big Dance at the Division I, II, and III levels. Then last season, Logie led the Bobcats to a second-place finish in the Big Sky, going 18-14 (12-6 conference) on the year.

Now, Montana State is considered the favorite to win the Big Sky this season. A huge part of that is because the team returns 10 players and around 66% of scoring from last season. The Bobcats are 14th in the country in minutes continuity on KenPom.

So far, Montana State is 1-1, falling to Colorado State 84-74 in a game played without star guard Jed Miller. After playing BYU, the Bobcats will play Gonzaga and High Point.

Montana State's key players

Fifth-year guard Jeremiah Davis has been the Bobcats' best player this season. He was named Big Sky Player of the Week after averaging 17 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. He's been incredibly efficient, too, going 7-of-9 from inside the arc and 4-of-8 from three. Davis was named to the Big Sky All-Defensive Team last season.

Jed Miller, another fifth-year guard, was a unanimous first-team All-Big Sky pick last season after leading Montana State in points (14.9), rebounds (5.7), assists (2.9) and steals (1.6) per game, all while shooting just under 41% from three. After missing the opener, Miller returned against Long Beach State and scored 14 points on 4-of-8 shooting from deep.

Senior forward Christian King is averaging 12.5 points per game and was an honorable mention All-Big Sky selection last season. At 6-foot-8, King is a stretch four who has already attempted 13 threes this season.

Sophomore Howie Keene had a career-high 15 points against Colorado State. He has been a spark off the bench so far for the Bobcats, averaging 10.5 points per game and going 6-of-10 from three.

What to watch for

Can BYU slow down Montana State from three?

BYU lives and dies by the three, but so does Montana State. According to KenPom, around 52% of the Bobcats’ field goal attempts come from beyond the arc (33rd nationally) and nearly 44% of their points come from there too. Montana State is shooting 37% from three as a team and ranks 14th in the country in three-point attempt differential, having 29+ more attempts than their opponents.

That’s a concern for a BYU defense that has had a hard time on the perimeter. The Cougars’ opponents are shooting 37% from three, which ranks 272nd nationally, and are coming off a game where Queens hit a season-high 14 threes against them.

The game plan is simple: Take away the three-point shot and force Montana State to play differently. If BYU isn’t careful and allows the Bobcats to get a lot of open looks, Montana State could hang around and make things competitive.

Will BYU dominate in the paint?

Although Montana State is dangerous from the outside, the team has been vulnerable inside. The Bobcats rank 262nd in average height (compared to BYU who ranks 31st) and are allowing opponents to shoot just over 61% on two-pointers, which ranks 313th nationally. They are also giving up 37 points per game in the paint.

BYU should look to be aggressive and attack the basket. That’s what helped Colorado State beat Montana State.

This is a matchup that could favor Rob Wright and his ability to score at the rim.

One thing to monitor is Montana State fouls a lot. The Bobcats are averaging over 24 fouls per game (339th nationally) and opponents are getting to the line with ease. BYU has yet to take full advantage and get to the charity stripe, though the Cougars haven’t gotten to the free throw as much as they should this season (237th in free throw rate).

Can BYU win the battle on the boards?

An area where Montana State has been elite is on the defensive glass. The Bobcats rank 7th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage and 11th in second-chance points allowed. Even against a Colorado State team with much more length, Montana State made it difficult for the Rams to get any second-chance points.

BYU will need to crash the boards and utilize the height advantage between teams. The Cougars have been out-rebounded in two of their three games this season, so that will be something to keep tabs on in this matchup.

Will BYU take care of the ball?

Montana State forced 16 turnovers (which included 12 steals) at Colorado State, and the Bobcats are averaging 19 points off turnovers per game. BYU has been good with the ball so far, ranking 33rd nationally in turnover percentage, so keeping that up will be key to avoiding easy transition buckets.

Ultimately, BYU's size and offensive firepower should be too much for Montana State to handle. But if the Bobcats get hot from three and beat the Cougars on the boards, this one could be more competitive and make things interesting.