How many times do I have to say the Miami Heat are off to a bad start? They are 4-6, and everyone is talking about their defense.

They're 25th in the league in defensive rating (that's not a typo). It’s strange that they're in this position with Giannis, Bam, Davion, and Andrew on the roster and Erik Spoelstra in charge; defense should be the last thing you'd worry about.

I've been pretty critical of the Heat defense, particularly their inability to defend the three-pointer and their lack of communication on switches. In too many possessions, you just see guys looking lost, and with the talent that this team has, it's been frustrating to watch.

But after looking at some of the more advanced stats NBA analyst Tom Haberstroh has shared, I'm now quite confident in where this defense is going. In fact, I think Heat fans are a bit overzealous about what we've seen in the first 10 games.

The Heat Might Be Playing Better Defense Than We Think

Haberstroh recently dropped some fascinating figures in his The Finder newsletter that tell a very different story about Miami's defense than the box score does.

According to pbpstats.com data, the Heat are allowing the 5th-worst shot quality in the league, which is pretty impressive considering how bad they've been on the defensive end.

NEW AT THE FINDER: The Miami Heat are 4-6 with one of the lowest ranking defenses in the league.

A silver lining: underlying metrics say that the Heat have been extremely unlucky with opponent shotmaking. https://t.co/O1bV4q9ozs pic.twitter.com/n9XtoS5P4B

— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) November 10, 2026

What really struck me was the gap between the shots opponents are expected to take and the shots they actually do take against Miami. The Heat are allowing an expected efg% of 52.7%, but opponents are actually shooting 57.8%. That's a 5.1 percentage-point differential, the biggest in the league (Sacramento is second at 3.8).

Miami is doing a fairly good job of forcing difficult shots, but opponents are converting them at a rate far above what the shot quality model would suggest. To me, that's encouraging as it suggests the Heat aren't quite as far away defensively as their overall stats would suggest. Opponents can't keep shooting like this, can they?

One of Miami's big problems has been defending the three-point line, and I've said it time and again because it's been an issue in pretty much every game.

Opponents are shooting 39.4% from three against the Heat, which is very high, especially given the number of attempts they're allowing. Watching teams keep hitting threes against Miami has been a real pain, but I don't think the opposition will do it at that level all season.

If that happens, the Heat's defensive numbers could be completely different a few weeks from now without making any actual changes.

Of course, you can't just sit back, rely on the opposition missing shots, and expect it to work itself out. Miami still needs to do a better job of closing out on shooters, communicating, and finishing their defensive possessions.

Giannis and Bam Are Too Good for This Defense to Stay Near the Bottom

The Heat just can’t be that bad on defense with Giannis and Bam. You've got two of the most versatile defensive players in the league, and I don't see how they'll be one of the worst defensive teams in the league all season.

We know great individual defenders don't necessarily make a great defensive team (we've seen that firsthand with Miami). The chemistry between Giannis and Bam hasn't been there, and there have been occasions when they just haven't looked comfortable playing together defensively.

Heat Nation, It's Way Too Early to Panic

Look, I totally understand the fans' frustration; we're too. The team came in with championship aspirations after the Giannis deal, and there was no way the Heat were going to be 4-6 and one of the league's worst defensive teams.

Don’t get me wrong, the defense is struggling and needs to be better, but I'm considerably more comfortable with this data.