The big prize of this free agent class is ace lefty and two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. We've seen and will continue to see predictions that he's going to land a deal of around 8-10 years and topping $400 million. The knee-jerk reaction to such prognostications in many corners will be that he won't possibly be "worth" that much and that such a deal would be a huge "risk" to the signing team. 

Let's stop right there. I don't think it's all that risky. There's risk for the team on every contract, especially pitchers, of course, but in Skubal, the signing team is getting a surefire ace for several years. 

Let's examine some of the reasons why such an enormous deal isn't actually that dangerous.

Track record, including workload

Since returning from surgery in 2023, Skubal has been absurdly good. Across his ages 26-29 seasons, he's made 103 starts and has gone 50-20 with a 2.47 ERA (169 ERA+), 0.92 WHIP and 757 strikeouts in 626 ⅓ innings. He's only walked 109, or 1.6 per nine innings. He rarely gets hit hard, he rarely gives up many runs, he strikes out a high number of hitters and rarely walks any. Simply, he's been good at everything.

The recent track record here says this is the best pitcher in baseball, at least in the long view (we could argue Paul Skenes was better in 2025 and Jacob Misiorowski was better in 2026, to name two examples, but if we looked at 2023-present, it isn't all that close). 

There isn't a dropoff in the postseason, either. In eight playoff starts, Skubal has a 2.13 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 70 strikeouts against nine unintentional walks in 50 ⅔ innings. 

He's stellar. Pretty much all the time. 

Also, the career workload isn't anything to be concerned about. Skubal heads to his age-30 season now with only 925 ⅓ innings in the regular season. Even counting the playoffs doesn't get Skubal to 1,000 innings at the big-league level. Let's go back to Skenes. He's only 24 years old and already has 495 career innings. Another ace? Justin Verlander had 1,553 ⅔ career innings through his age-29 season. 

There just isn't a ton of tread on these Skubal tires.

Age and injury history

We'll hear plenty of consternation about Skubal being 30 years old next season as it relates to signing a long-term deal. We'll also hear people say a deal is risky due to his injury history. He had Tommy John surgery in college, flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and arthroscopic surgery (a new procedure using a Nanoscope) in 2026. 

The simple matter is that pretty much every pitcher nowadays has had some sort of surgery on his arm, notably the elbow, and we've seen pitchers time and again bounce back after elbow surgery to perform at a high level. 

Skubal just did it. He only missed roughly six weeks after his procedure this past season. He came back to make 19 starts after the surgery and posted a 2.73 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 115 ⅓ innings. 

Pitchers age well nowadays

I mentioned Verlander above. Skubal is a multi-time Cy Young winner, so it's acceptable to look at some of the best pitchers in baseball and how they aged into their late-30s in recent memory. 

• Verlander won a Cy Young at age 36 and then again at age 39. 
• Max Scherzer finished third in Cy Young voting at age 36 and was still very good at age 37 (5.3 WAR, 2.29 ERA in 23 starts).
• Chris Sale won a Cy Young in his age-35 season and was still excellent this past season at age 37.
• Zack Wheeler came off thoracic outlet surgery last year at age 36 to post a 6.1 WAR in 28 starts.
• Jacob deGrom had a 2.97 ERA in 30 starts as a 37-year-old.
• Sonny Gray just went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA in his age-36 season. 
• Zack Greinke was still great at age 35 and pretty darn good at age 38. 

Again, Skubal will be in his age-30 season in 2027. If he signs an eight-year deal, it'll run through his age-37 season. 

For those so worried about the long-term finances of the team owner who ends up signing Skubal, are you sure you're really worried that he won't be productive through five, six, seven or even all eight years of that deal? Given his track record, talent, pitching arsenal, relatively low workload given his age and how well some of the best pitchers have fared through their mid-30s, he actually seems like a great bet. 

Megadeals for pitchers have mostly been good recently

A decade ago, the common talking point was that long and huge deals for pitchers never age well. That isn't actually the case, for the most part. Here are some of the biggest pitcher contracts of all time and how they unfolded (or are unfolding). 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers, 12 years, $325 million -- He came over from Japan for his age-25 season, so this one was a different animal. Still, it sure doesn't seem like it'll be a bad deal, does it?

Gerrit Cole, Yankees, 9 years, $324 million -- Through six years of the deal, Cole has missed a chunk of time due to Tommy John surgery. He's also won a Cy Young, finished top four in Cy Young voting three times, been worth 22.4 WAR and was the ace of an American League pennant winner. 

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals, 7 years, $245 million -- Here's the bust. Strasburg was never healthy again after the 2019 World Series title run. Still, the Nationals wouldn't have that title without him.

Justin Verlander, Tigers, 10 years, $219.5 million -- This was the deal that ran from 2010-19. During this deal, Verlander won two Cy Youngs (one in the second year of the deal, one in the final year), a World Series, three pennants, 160 games and led the league in pitcher WAR three times. 

Max Fried, Yankees, 8 years, $218 million -- It's only been two years, but Fried is 24-10 with a 2.83 ERA and finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in his first year.

David Price, Red Sox, 7 years, $217 million -- He won a World Series in the third year of the contract. Overall, he was 53-26 with a 3.78 ERA (118 ERA+) through the course of the deal. 

Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks, 6 years, $210 million -- Burnes had his first year of the deal interrupted by Tommy John surgery. He had a 2.66 ERA through 11 starts prior to the injury. The jury's still out, but he heads to his age-32 season fully recovered now.

Zack Greinke, 6 years, $206.5 million -- Over the course of this deal, Greinke was 77-39 with a 3.55 ERA (125 ERA+) and 19.9 WAR. He had a fourth-place Cy Young finish in there.

CC Sabathia, 9 years, $202 million -- The Yankees won the World Series in Sabathia's first year there and he started the deal with three straight top-four Cy Young finishes. Overall, during this deal, he was 120-73 with 27.1 WAR and had five straight 200-plus inning seasons. 

Max Scherzer, 7 years, $191.4 million -- During this contract, Scherzer won two Cy Youngs, a World Series title and 99 games with a 2.75 ERA. He posted 41.8 WAR. In the seven years on this deal, Scherzer finished in the top five in Cy Young voting six times, with 2020 being the outlier.

$/WAR?

We can close with this. Some people might not care for such a measure, particularly the salary cap crowd who will be worried about the owners paying too much. Regardless, let's stick with the general belief that each individual WAR (1.0 WAR) is worth a bit over $8 million per season.

By this measure, Skubal was worth $48.4 million in 2024, $53.7 million in 2025 and $41.7 million last season. Putting aside how much less money he actually made than what he was doing on the field, and knowing everything laid out above, I'll ask a simple question: 

Are you sure a 10-year, $400 million deal for this guy would be a "risk?" 

I think we could argue that it would be a bargain.