Every Sunday, I'm somehow surprised and not surprised at the same time. The action keeps me on the edge of my seat. A tipped pass here, a missed tackle (or many) there and my mood swings with every snap. In the moment, it all feels random.

But once the dust settles, I can usually trace the path. The signs were there. A target share creeping up in September. A run game that never looked right in camp. An offensive line we all worried about in August. We just didn't know when those threads would finally come together or fall apart. 

That's where we are after Week 8. Some of the biggest storylines from Sunday felt like shocks while they were happening. But if we look back at a few of the narratives we were debating in the offseason and September, they shouldn't have caught us off guard. So, let's check in on those early takes and see which ones are paying off.

The Cardiac Cats are Back

Here's a quick peek behind the curtain. During the first window of Sunday games, I'm taking notes and going back and forth with the crew on what will go into this piece and the theme. I couldn't concentrate after about 4 p.m. ET.

Almost any other week, Joe Burrow leading a game-winning drive in OT would only lower my life expectancy by a year or two. Finally, there's a positive data point in the "is Burrow clutch" argument. Throwing for 462 yards and zipping five TD passes to his pass-catchers isn't bad either. But Burrow threw some of the gas on the fire with multiple turnovers, causing me to yell incoherently at my office wall.

However, the largest problem was on the other side of the ball.

• Pressure Rate: 37.0% (Weeks 1-7), 19.0% (against TEN)

• Rushing Yards per Game Surrendered: 80.5, 117.0

• Passing Success Rate Allowed: 52.0%, 66.0%

To be fair, a couple of the offseason defensive additions showed up when the situation looked bleak. DT Dexter Lawrence sacked Cam Ward, taking the Titans out of FG range and he almost had a scoop-and-score at the start of the second half. DE Boye Mafe set up the turnover. But Tennessee hadn't scored more than 35 points in a game since Week 17 of '21. Ward's highest single-game passing yardage total was 265 until he came to Paycor Stadium. The idea that the Bengals could turn around their defense in a single year now seems, in Step Brothers terms, a little messed up. And Cincinnati's response on offense looked all too familiar.

As I mentioned on Friday, unless DC Al Golden can bring his unit back to even close to league average, just give me more pass-catchers for Burrow. Seven of Chase Brown's 12 carries went for three or fewer yards. Samaje Perine averaged 2.5 YPC while playing 58.8% of the red-zone snaps. All while playing against a defense that came into Week 8 allowing 104.9 YPG to opposing RBs. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals used three-WR sets at a season-high 64.3% rate, and got their young pass-catchers into the mix. Rookie TE Jack Endries got his first TD, and WR Dohnte Meyers ran a route on 66.0% of Burrow's dropbacks, picking up a key first down to keep them alive.

Instead of mortgaging its future to fix its ground game, Cincinnati should invest in what makes them a problem for opposing defenses and make Burrow the MVP candidate he's looked like for years.

Klint Kubiak Will Fix the Raiders

The Raiders are in a constant "it's so over — we're so back" loop. They brought Klint Kubiak after he orchestrated Seattle's Super Bowl run. But Brock Bowers, their best offensive weapon, needed a meniscus trim before playing a regular-season snap. Kirk Cousins goes on a three-game winning streak, then a trio of losses put us on "Mendoza Watch." Sure, facing the Jets is a get-right spot for most teams. But I don't remember Cousins showing this same type of swagger last year.

Maybe swagger is the wrong descriptor. I'm not completely sure because I don't know what Cousins is doing after his second TD pass. If there's a name for his celly, somebody let me know. Anyway, Cousins operating Kubiak's scheme to near perfection isn't a revelation, after the two worked together in Minnesota. Cousins hit a season-high play-action rate (40.6%), and it was the third straight outing with the personnel grouping requiring at least two TEs on the field. He averaged 1.06 EPA per attempt to the MoF. And seeing the guy responsible for most of the production also isn't much of a shock.

Betting on Kubiak was a bet on him making his top pass-catcher an unguardable weapon. He's lived up to the expectation so far. Bowers just getting to 70 yards for the sixth consecutive game was an accolade on its own. But his utility to the offense goes past how far Bowers moves the ball.

Since coming back to the lineup in Week 3, Bowers ranks 11th amongst all pass-catchers in first downs per route run (12.6%). He sits right between Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase in that metric. The "TE-WR" is also just inside the top 12 in YPRR ahead of Chase and CeeDee Lamb. And this is all while running just eight fewer routes from the outside than Tee Higgins. A change in coaching is working out for the passing game as we envisioned.

Vegas' rushing attack? Not so much.

That last sentence had most folks scratching their head well into the second quarter. Jeanty's output as a rusher has been a cause for concern since Week 1. After cracking the century mark against the Dolphins, Jeanty hasn't crossed 60 yards in a game since, and his yards on the ground have receded each week. He's continued to redeem himself as a receiver, but Mike Washington Jr. continues to steal snaps and carries. Washington's moved the chains more often and has a higher success rate on early downs than Jeanty. With his weekly workload rising, Washington will have FLEX appeal in this expanded version of the Raiders' backfield.

It's Not Just Wilson and Hall in New York Anymore

We weren't targeting any of the Jets' skill players until the third or fourth round for a couple of reasons. First, we assumed the team would lag behind the division, but bringing back Geno Smith would stabilize the situation. Second, and more importantly, the idea was that the targets and touches would consolidate on Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. I get that Hall's quad injury has kept him off the field. But even if Hall were active, he might be in the same situation as Jeanty. 

Braelon Allen has averaged 22 touches per game with Hall out. He's churned out more than 100 scrimmage yards in four of five starts. That's while opposing defenses have put eight or more in the box on 46.2% of his carries (fifth-highest rate among active starters). It's also after defenders have met Allen at or behind the LOS on 48 of his totes (only Bucky Irving and Derrick Henry have more). And still, you'll find Allen's name in the rank where we'd expect to see Hall's.

• Rushing Success Rate: 48.4%, 3rd (out of 19 qualifiers – min. 50% team rushing rate)

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 4.6, 2nd 

• Explosive Play Rate: 11.8%, 4th 

Smith's return has done more for their aerial attack than anticipated, too. Luckily, a sideline exchange and spending time with his QB after the game got Wilson's target rate back up over 20%. But during each contest, a few extra names have come into the picture.

• Obvious Passing Situations: 14.8% (Mitchell), 11.5% (Taylor), 9.8% (Sadiq)

• Downfield: 27.6% (Mitchell), 13.8% (Williams), 10.6% (Cooper)

• Red Zone: 16.7% (Williams), 16.7% (Taylor), 16.7% (Sadiq)

Adonai Mitchell is the latest contestant on the "Who's the Jets' WR2" game show. After Omar Cooper Jr. took the title in Week 7, the former Colt turned nine targets into 142 yards. But Mitchell's 25-yard aDOT should have anyone reconsidering slotting him into their WR3 spot in Week 9. While Smith has been willing to let the ball fly downfield, a positive result isn't always in the cards. Plus, with the Jets facing the Chiefs, Wilson should lead the Jets in targets yet again.