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Having missed out on the playoffs by just two points last season, Wrexham’s slow start to the new Championship campaign has been particularly hard to take. Had the Red Dragons turned just one of their 14 draws into a win, they would have finished above Hull City, who are now competing in the Premier League.
The reality is that they did not. After a summer of questionable recruitment and tactical issues that have become increasingly easy for opponents to exploit, Wrexham have struggled in the second tier. Their problems have been compounded by an extensive injury list that has kept attacking talisman Josh Windass sidelined for much of the campaign.
Phil Parkinson retains the backing of the club’s board, but with a sporting director and chief executive who were not responsible for his appointment, improvement is needed if he is to remain in the job. Wrexham might point to last season’s slow start as evidence that patience can pay off, but supporters have seen few reasons to believe things will turn around so easily this time.
Wrexham are far from the first club to find themselves in this position. In fact, their current predicament follows a trend that suggests turning the season around could prove difficult.
It is easy to assume that a seventh-place finish provides a solid foundation for further progress. Recent history, however, suggests the opposite can be true.
Only once in the last seven Championship seasons has a team that finished seventh gone on to finish higher than 17th the following campaign. That is where Wrexham currently stand after their latest defeat. Even more concerning, across the last 15 Championship seasons, only once has a seventh-place finisher gone on to finish in the top half the following year.
The team that bucked the trend was Middlesbrough in the 2022–23 season, and even then, a managerial change was required. It is somewhat ironic that four years ago this month, Michael Carrick replaced Chris Wilder at the Riverside Stadium with Boro sitting 21st in the Championship.
Carrick introduced a new tactical approach centered on high-intensity attacking, which was further bolstered by the January loan signing of Cameron Archer. Boro climbed from 21st to fourth, with a managerial change and a more expansive style of play helping rejuvenate the squad.
A similar story unfolded with the last team to finish seventh and then secure promotion. Swansea City had narrowly missed out on the playoffs before manager Paulo Sousa left to take charge of Leicester City. They appointed Brendan Rodgers, who implemented a high-intensity, possession-based approach that suited the existing squad. Rodgers guided Swansea to third place and eventual playoff success before Liverpool hired him a year later following an impressive debut Premier League campaign.
One small comfort for Wrexham is that none of the teams in this period that finished below seventh were relegated, although several came perilously close to the drop. That is hardly the reassurance the club’s owners and investors will want, having spent $48 million in the summer transfer window while another $95 million is being invested in the new Kop Stand.
There is no single explanation for the apparent seventh-place curse. Clubs have failed to build on their previous success for a variety of reasons, with financial problems, points deductions and protests against ownership featuring prominently in several cases.
Others have sold key players without adequately replacing them. Wrexham have not lost any major first-team players so far, but their questionable recruitment is a concern they share with several clubs that struggled to finish in the top half the following season.
Injuries, mental fatigue and tactical stagnation have also played a role. Perhaps the most common issue, however, has been complacency. From the outside, it is easy to assume that a team finishing seventh will be well placed to repeat that achievement the following season. That assumption can contribute to underinvestment in the transfer market, while the disappointment of narrowly missing out on the playoffs can also linger within a squad.
It is important to remember that Wrexham are only 17th in October and still have plenty of time to buck the trend. What may alarm supporters, however, is how frequently managerial changes have followed disappointing campaigns among teams in similar positions.
Blackburn failed to adequately replace key players Callum Brittain, Tyrhys Dolan and Lewis Travis. Defender Dom Hyam also moved to Wrexham on Deadline Day during the summer transfer window. Blackburn could easily have been relegated had Leicester City and West Bromwich Albion not suffered points deductions. Valérien Ismaël was sacked in February, although many supporters believe the club’s owners were ultimately responsible for its decline.
Hull survived only on the final day of the season after a turbulent campaign that included various transfer restrictions stemming from financial problems. Tim Walter was sacked and replaced by Ruben Selles, while key players Jacob Greaves and Jaden Philogene had to be sold to raise funds.
Blackburn missed out on the playoffs on goal difference and paid the price for a poor summer transfer window. Key players Adam Wharton, Ben Brereton Díaz and Thomas Kaminski departed without being adequately replaced. Jon Dahl Tomasson was sacked in February, with supporters increasingly frustrated by the ownership of the Venkys.
The exception to the trend, although a managerial change proved decisive. Michael Carrick was appointed in October and lifted Boro from 21st to fourth. His fresh coaching approach reinvigorated the squad, while the January loan signing of Cameron Archer provided an additional attacking threat.
Reading’s decline was heavily influenced by financial mismanagement. The club changed managers twice and was deducted six points for breaching profit and sustainability regulations. At one stage, player wages accounted for 234% of revenue. Reading would have been relegated had Derby County not received an even larger points deduction.
Mental fatigue was a significant factor in Forest’s disappointing campaign. They needed only a draw on the final day to secure a playoff place but suffered a shock 4–1 home defeat to Stoke City and failed to recover. Sabri Lamouchi remained in charge at the start of the season before being sacked in October. Chris Hughton steadied the team but struggled to deliver an attacking threat.
An inexperienced manager and financial constraints contributed to Boro’s struggles. Their parachute payments had ended, forcing Jonathan Woodgate to reduce an oversized squad without sufficient funds to bring in his preferred replacements. Recruitment proved difficult, and the team stabilized after Neil Warnock replaced Woodgate.
Preston’s 14th-place finish was one of the more encouraging outcomes in this group. They had lost star player Greg Cunningham and had failed to replace striker Jordan Hugill the previous season. After winning just one of their first 11 matches, they recovered despite enduring several injuries throughout the campaign.
Leeds started strongly and topped the table in September under Thomas Christiansen, but opponents soon worked out how to counter their approach. Chris Wood had requested a move late in the previous summer, and Leeds struggled to replace him effectively. Disciplinary problems also plagued the team throughout the campaign.
There are similarities with Wrexham here. Ipswich failed to replace star forward Daryl Murphy and struggled for goals throughout the season. Mick McCarthy faced heavy criticism for a predictable, direct style that lacked creativity and entertainment. Injuries to key players, including Jonny Williams, Giles Coke and Luke Hyam, also affected the team.
Uncertainty and unrest contributed to Wolves’ midtable finish. Chairman Steve Morgan resigned and put the club up for sale, but no buyer emerged. Further disruption followed when top scorer Benik Afobe joined Bournemouth in January, weakening the team’s attacking options.
Reading’s financial problems resurfaced. Burdened by expensive contracts after gambling on promotion, the club sold star forward Adam Le Fondre to help pay a tax bill. Manager Nigel Adkins was sacked, and Reading avoided relegation only because other clubs were in even greater difficulty.
Bolton’s struggles were another example of problems at ownership level. The club paid substantial wages to a succession of underperforming signings and lacked a clear direction. Injuries to key players compounded the problems, although manager Dougie Freedman remained in charge throughout the campaign.
Boro’s collapse was particularly dramatic. They were third at the turn of the year before an alarming decline under Tony Mowbray saw them win just five matches across the calendar year. Individual errors, mounting pressure and a loss of momentum turned a promising season into a disappointing one.
Leeds failed to invest adequately in the squad and recruited poorly during the summer. Former owner Ken Bates faced growing criticism, and manager Simon Grayson was eventually sacked amid the team’s struggles. For a club of Leeds’ size and ambition, it represented a significant step backward.
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