The Colorado Buffaloes face a tall task if they want to keep their bowl game hopes alive in Week 11. The Buffs take on the No. 17 Houston Cougars on Friday in a situation where they must win the rest of their games this season to clinch a bowl berth.

The Buffaloes are heavy underdogs to win this week’s game, with ESPN analytics giving them just a 17 percent chance to win. However, there are some things playing in their favor that they could take advantage of to boost those odds.

Late-night kickoff in a home environment

The Buffaloes’ record under coach Deion Sanders in late-night kickoffs hasn’t been all-too-impressive since Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter left town, but they have a knack for staying in those games.

Colorado has given teams like the then-No. 25 BYU Cougars, then-No. 11 Utah Utes and a tough 2025 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets squad a run for their money in late-night Folsom Field affairs. Colorado lost each of those games by just one score, and a combined 13 points.

Both teams will be experiencing a short week, but Houston will be in particular. The Cougars will be flying out to Colorado on Thursday, and trying to adapt to the altitude from there, so those factors could put the Cougars a step or two behind. From there, it’ll be up to the Buffaloes to feed off of the wild late-night crowd and create some magic.

The Houston Cougars’ weak secondary

In a more technical sense, though, Houston’s secondary may be its Achilles’ heel in this game. The Cougars started off the season behind the pack in Big 12 pass defense, and while it could’ve been chalked up to a fluke in non-conference play, it’s proven to be a real problem for them down the stretch.

The Cougars are allowing 252.9 passing yards per game on average, the fourth-worst mark in the Big 12.

While Isaac Wilson has struggled throwing the football this season, the Cougars’ true worry should be wide receiver Joseph Williams. He’s put up immensely impactful performances regardless of the opponent this season, and if he can take advantage of Houston’s weak secondary, he might have a field day ahead of him under the Friday night lights.

The Houston Cougars’ history of facing weak pass rushes

But another overlooked storyline going into this game is how little Houston starting quarterback Conner Weigman has been tested in the pass rush this season. He’s only been sacked 10 times, but that may be more indicative of the Cougars’ schedule than the offensive line’s prowess.

Colorado is a top-four defense in sacks in the Big 12 with 24. It only trails the Baylor Bears, Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Arizona Wildcats in that department.

But Houston has only played one of those teams this season, that being the Red Raiders. That was one of the two losses on its schedule this season, as Weigman was sacked three times and lost a fumble to Texas Tech’s stout defensive front.

Colorado will be a wake-up call for Weigman, who has had plenty of time in the pocket since that loss back on Sept. 18. If the Buffaloes’ edge rushers can bounce back from a disappointing game against the Arizona State Sun Devils, they could play a major role in turning this game on its head.